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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum


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7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

my forecasted highs for  this week have all been boosted 3-5 degrees from a few days ago and are now in the 80-83 range

It must be the dry conditions helping highs like Brian said. At least with the low dews it's still cooling down nicely at night, even in the city. 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2010)
NYC: 97 (1953)
LGA: 96 (2010)
JFK: 92 (2012)



Lows:


EWR: 50 (1934)
NYC: 51 (1869)
LGA:  55 (1967)
JFK: 54 (1985)


Historical:

 

1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred on this day in 1859.

1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), September 1, 1862.

 

1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand.

1894 - A forest fire driven by high winds burned down the town of Hinkley, MN, killing 418 persons. (David Ludlum)


1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher. 

1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA. (The Weather Channel)

1914 - The town of Bloomington, MI, was deluged with 9.78 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (31st-1st) (The Weather Channel)

1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire.

1935: The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane began intensifying from a tropical storm early in the day to a Category 2 by the end of this day. Over the next 24 hours the cyclone would go through "bombogenesis" intensifying to a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph. This was the first Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. The records aren't good enough to say whether any earlier storms that hit the USA would be Category 5 by today's standards. (Ref. Jack Williams, USA Today.com)

1939: Lightning hit and killed 837 sheep bedded down for the night on top of Pine Canyon in Northwestern Utah. Both the sheep and the earth were wet from the passing thunderstorm, causing the lightning's electrical discharge to move completely through the herd. The sheepherder was in a tent, was knocked temporary unconscious but escaped death. (Ref. National Weather Service in Utah Lightning Information)

1950: Palm Springs, CA set their all-time September high temperature record with 121°. Other daily record highs included: Yuma, AZ: 123°, Phoenix, AZ: 116°, Las Vegas, NV: 113°, Sacramento, CA: 108°, Tucson, AZ: 107°, Stockton, CA: 105°, Bishop, CA: 104°, Winnemucca, NV: 101°, Winslow, AZ: 99°, Reno, NV: 99°, Elko, NV: 97° and Ely, NV: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. 

1953: A heat wave that began in late August continued into early September continued across parts of the Midwest. Platteville, WI & South Bend, IN recorded their hottest September temperatures with 100° and 99° respectively. Fort Wayne, IN & Muskegon, MI tied their all-time September high temperature record with 100° & 95°. Other daily record highs included: Goshen, IN: 101°, Grand Rapids, MI: 97°, Lansing, MI: 96°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1955 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to an all-time high of 110 degrees during an eight day string of 100 degree weather. (David Ludlum)

1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event.  Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton.  Several farms along the path were "leveled".  It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were "sucked out of the basement" after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities.

 

1974: Lt. Judy Neuffer became the first female to fly a Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the eye of a hurricane.

1979 - A home in Centerville TN was hit by lightning and totally destroyed. It marked the third time that the house had been hit by lightning since being built in 1970. (The Weather Channel)

1983: Record heat gripped parts of the northern Rockies. Several locations recorded record highs for September including: Miles City, MT: 106°, Billings, MT: 103° and Sheridan, WY: 103°. At Billings, it was the 8th consecutive day with high temperatures above 90°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Erratic Hurricane Elena baffled forecasters and Gulf Coast residents on the Sunday before Labor Day. The Hurricane had threatened the central Gulf Coast on Friday, only to turn east and spend Saturday menacing the Tampa Bay area with high winds, tides and heavy rains. By lunchtime Sunday, Elena was on the move again, but this time back to the west. The storm reached its minimum pressure of 951 millibars or 28.08 inches of mercury while the storm was 75 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Elena's maximum reported coastal winds were over Dauphin Island, AL, where sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 135 mph were reported. Other maximum gusts reported ranged from 120 mph at Gulfport, MS, to 92 mph at Pensacola, FL. Maximum tides of 10 feet above normal were recorded at Apalachicola, FL, with reports of 6 to 8 feet above normal on Dauphin Island, AL. Approximately 1 million people were evacuated from low lying coastal areas during Elena’s approach. This large evacuation contributed to the fact that there were no deaths in the area of landfall. The four deaths which occurred resulted from falling trees and automobile accidents. One resident died of a heart attack. Total damage ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion dollars.(David Ludlum) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ely, MN, was drenched with three inches of rain in two hours, and pelted with one inch hail. The heavy rain flooded streets and basements, and the high water pressure which resulted blew the covers off manholes. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter west of Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Luther and south of Harrah. Early morning thunderstorms over Indiana drenched Kokomo with five to eight inches of rain, and spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Bruce Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1999: Erratic Dennis was downgraded to a Tropical Storm as he drifted aimlessly just off Cape Hatteras, NC. Dennis would move southward, then northwestward before making landfall on the 4th with winds of 70 mph. Dennis' heavy rains would set the stage for massive flooding when Hurricane Floyd arrived a few weeks later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: Across southern California, a heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 118° at Dulzura, 113° at Temecula, and 112° at Riverside and Menifee. Temperature gradients were remarkable near the coast. It was 77° at Newport Beach and 107° in Santa Ana, only ten miles difference, 72° in Oceanside Harbor and 87° in Oceanside Airport, only two miles difference, 81° in Sea World to 91° in San Diego - Lindbergh Field, only three miles difference. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: By midnight, Indianapolis, IN recorded its wettest day on record with 7.20 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Hurricane Gustav was the second most destructive hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the seventh tropical cyclone, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season. Gustav caused serious damage and casualties in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the United States. Gustav caused at least $6.6 billion (2008 USD) in damages. Gustav triggered the largest evacuation in United States history up to 2008. Once into the Gulf, Gustav gradually weakened because of increased wind shear and dry air. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane late on August 31, and remained at that intensity until landfall on the morning of September 1 near Cocodrie, Louisiana. In total, an estimated 153 deaths had been attributed to Gustav in the U.S. and Caribbean.


2017: The temperature at Downtown San Francsico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, numerous top 10 driest summer reports in the Northeast.

IMG_4558.thumb.jpeg.43f4beeb82600f5a63b1a605a0852c3c.jpeg

IMG_4553.thumb.jpeg.6827de3997247553d34e91e1f49172bd.jpeg

 

You would think a dry summer like this would have been warmer.  This month especially has been a rare August where the air condition window units were barely used.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Something seems to have shifted with the drought pattern which emerged last fall. It used to be that rain events could be relied upon to beat model expectations. Now we seem to generally underperform longer range model expectations.

When the wet patterns do materialize, then the heaviest is often localized with other areas not getting as much. So widespread soaking events have been more the outlier than the norm.  

Not sure yet if this is just a one year blip and we reverse again back to much wetter again down the road. But things have been getting very dry in Canada which we haven’t typically seen before. It’s probably too early to know if the wet pattern which began in 2003 is starting to get some pushback from recent drier tendencies. We also got some drier periods over this stretch but they didn’t last very long.

Yeah can't remember a dry pattern like this in a long time ...now been going on for a year with my station receiving 31.65" rain in the past 12 months which is a 17" deficit!

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August 2007 closed without any rainfall during the last 10 days of the month, as was the case this year. September 1, 2007 opened up with a high of 79° and low of 64°; September 2025 began with a high of 78° and a low of 64°. September 2007 would go on to wind up warmer than normal with a mean temperature of 70.3° and drier than normal with monthly rainfall of just 1.81".

Before one concludes that 2025 has a near identical twin, even if the outcome winds up similar over all, 2007 went on to see a strong La Niña develop following a preceding El Niño winter. The important point is that there are no "perfect" analogs so to speak. However, one needs larger samples. For example, the idea of a drier than normal September is based on 10 cases with no rainfall during August 22-31. It's just one piece of evidence. That the CFSv2 has swung from a wet to a dry idea increases confidence in that outcome. Should the forthcoming ECMWF monthly data reaffirm the earlier idea of a drier than normal September in the Northeast, confidence would increase further. Of course, the Tropics could always hurl a curve ball, perhaps later this month, that foils such forecasts. For now, with a quiet pattern expected to prevail through the near-term, one can look at some fun coincidences like the one mentioned for 2007.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through midweek. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It could turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday approaching or reach the lower 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. 

A system could bring some rain on Friday into perhaps Saturday. Rainfall amounts appear likely to be mainly less than 0.50".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -5.23 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.084 today. 

 

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11 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah can't remember a dry pattern like this in a long time ...now been going on for a year with my station receiving 31.65" rain in the past 12 months which is a 17" deficit!

Many parts of the region have seen among their ten driest water years (September 1-August 31) periods:

Islip: 33.71" (9th driest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 30.71" (6th driest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 32.90" (8th driest)
White Plains: 33.47" (6th driest)

Newark just missed. Its 31.79" ranked as the 11th driest water year.

Note: Bridgeport is missing rainfall data, so it was excluded from the list. However, if one added 1"-2" of additional precipitation, its water year would rank between 4th and 6th driest on record. 

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

You would think a dry summer like this would have been warmer.  This month especially has been a rare August where the air condition window units were barely used.

Even with this cooler ending to August, it was still another top 10 warmest summer for many locations. This has been the case most summers since 2010. Plus the all-time June heat in the 100° to 105° range. So it was very nice to get a relaxation of this heat during August.

The cooler conditions in May and August into the start of September prevented the warm spots from making a run on 50 days reaching 90° like 2022 and 2010. So we got lucky that the heat peaked early again in June and July. The Erin Cat 5 recurve and other wave breaks helped pull the trough into the East during recent weeks. 

My area actually ranked higher for 90° days this year than the warm spots like Newark.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Top 10 years 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2022 17 0
2 2025 15 122
3 2010 14 0
4 1977 13 100
5 2021 12 0
- 2020 12 2
- 2012 12 3
6 2013 11 0
7 2002 10 3
- 1952 10 0
8 2024 9 1
9 2023 8 1
- 2019 8 2
- 2018 8 3
- 2016 8 0
- 1955 8 0
10 2011 7 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Top 10 years 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2025 38 122
8 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
9 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
10 2015 35 0
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even with this cooler ending to August, it was still another top 10 warmest summer for many locations. This has been the case most summers since 2010. Plus the all-time June heat in the 100° to 105° range. So it was very nice to get a relaxation of this heat during August.

The cooler conditions in May and August into the start of September prevented the warm spots from making a run on 50 days reaching 90° like 2022 and 2010. So we got lucky that the heat peaked early again in June and July. The Erin Cat 5 recurve and other wave breaks helped pull the trough into the East during recent weeks. 

My area actually ranked higher for 90° days this year than the warm spots like Newark.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Top 10 years 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2022 17 0
2 2025 15 122
3 2010 14 0
4 1977 13 100
5 2021 12 0
- 2020 12 2
- 2012 12 3
6 2013 11 0
7 2002 10 3
- 1952 10 0
8 2024 9 1
9 2023 8 1
- 2019 8 2
- 2018 8 3
- 2016 8 0
- 1955 8 0
10 2011 7 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Top 10 years 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2025 38 122
8 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
9 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
10 2015 35 0

In addition, Islip ranked fourth and White Plains ranked 10th.

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