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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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00z ICON shifts farther west but replaces a high out in the northern Atlantic with a trough, which is not the scenario you’d want to see for even a glancing blow. That being said there’s still a ton of variation with the upper level environment 8 days out. I thought it was an easy recurve a day ago, still the most likely scenario but worth watching for the next couple of days.

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Flags of caution. 
Posts of certainty i.e.: ERIN is a landfall miss. There are no certainties, probabilities most assuredly certainly. 
With each update the models for the most part have been remarkably consistent. By no means am I stating a forecasted landfall.
Consider the track has been South and West with a delay in intensification. The newer Hurricane Models show this. ECMWF, GFS ensembles wagons WEST.
I enjoy tracking these suckers. A great diversion from life reality.

Anybody ever fight with an Insurance Companies reluctance to pay on a claim? How does one get them to pay for work already performed?   I ask because last Wed. A 100ft, 6ft wide trunked live oak fell and punctured 4 holes. Guilty until proven innocent. Invoice from Tree crew hired gave me a total of $8500.00 (reasonable considering the damage) The point contact stated "way over priced."  The house was sold, well under contract and only 4hrs away from inspection. MOTHERTUCKERS!              

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