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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This is evolving in a way that the follow up shortwave over the Midwest around hr 144 will be the key interaction influencing the recurve. 

shift west at 0z with the hurricane models..  I mentioned that a couple days ago.  we pray

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00z ICON shifts farther west but replaces a high out in the northern Atlantic with a trough, which is not the scenario you’d want to see for even a glancing blow. That being said there’s still a ton of variation with the upper level environment 8 days out. I thought it was an easy recurve a day ago, still the most likely scenario but worth watching for the next couple of days.

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