August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[MorristownWx]

Easily the best weather weekend of the summer!

[jm1220]

HRRR says smoke should rotate down into our area tomorrow. Shouldn’t be bad near the surface but enough to make it hazy. 

[forkyfork]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR says smoke should rotate down into our area tomorrow. Shouldn’t be bad near the surface but enough to make it hazy. 

it mixes the smoke to the surface away from the sea breeze

[donsutherland1]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a lovely vision Don, do you have your own boat?

 

Thanks. No, I don't have a boat. Perhaps when I retire, I'll get one.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks hot to me, well above normal in the extended

We see triple digit heat mid august I say. The worst of it is NOT over just cause we're having a little break from the extreme heat/humidity first week of august. Many people are jumping the gun on second half of summer.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

71 / 59 and another beaut of a day on tap.  Warmer than yesterday by a few mid 80s.  Monday warmer still with some inland areas to 90. With a similar Tue.   Likely see clouds push back in on Wed from the south and clear out Thu, with the brunt of the rain down into MD and points outh.  Overall near normal week - dry and lots of sunshine.    Flow remains manly onshore the next 5 days with flow coming around more southerly with a warmer / hotter and wet overall next week. 

 

8/3 - 8/8 :   Near normal / below - dry overall - Wed/Thu clouds - rain looks to stay southwest
8/8 - beyond :   Warm- Hot / Humid - wet overall - Tropics  - heat for the area targeting the 9-12 period.

 

 

I'm going to partially disagree with a some things that have been said. Firstly, I think the onshore flow around the relatively cool HP is mostly this week. Then from what I'm looking at there is a fairly brief spell of warmer/hotter weather later in week #2 pending no significant tropical activity up our way. GFS thinks there will be some.  Then it appears a fresh Canadian air mass drops southeast bringing possibly a spell of well below normal temperatures by sometime during week #3. After that I speculate purely based on the pattern that we may see one last or the second to last spell of heat as the ridge builds around on the return flow of that air mass probably not long duration but we'll see. All in all, it looks like an average to slightly above average August temperature-wise.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

90 tomorrow?

Doubtful locally except for EWR where it's almost always likely and some points well north and west. I would think Central Park 87, LGA 85, EWR 91.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Near

 

 

Yeah, a warmer than average pattern following this more comfortable start to August relative to what we have seen so far.

June 21st-through July 31st was the warmest on record for spots like Newark and Islip. So while that is a warmer than average forecast, it’s not nearly as warm as we just experienced.

In this much warmer world, less warm has become a substitute for the cool summer patterns which used to be frequent before 2010. 
 
We would often see 1 to 3 warmer summers followed by a pullback to a genuinely cooler summer. But we haven’t seen a genuinely cooler summer since 2009.

These days it’s all near to record warm summers followed by a less warm summer like 2023 instead of a cool one by historical standards. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Warmest June 21st through July 31st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-07-31	82.4	0
2	2010-07-31	82.1	0
3	1993-07-31	81.8	0
4	2024-07-31	81.2	0
-	1994-07-31	81.2	0
5	2022-07-31	81.0	0
-	2011-07-31	81.0	0
6	2020-07-31	80.4	0
-	2013-07-31	80.4	0
7	2012-07-31	80.3	0
8	1999-07-31	80.0	0
9	2019-07-31	79.9	0
10	2002-07-31	79.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY warmest June 21st Through July 31st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-07-31	78.8	0
2	2010-07-31	77.9	0
3	1999-07-31	77.7	0
4	2013-07-31	77.4	0
5	2019-07-31	77.3	0
6	2020-07-31	77.2	0
7	2024-07-31	76.5	0
8	1994-07-31	76.3	0
9	2011-07-31	76.2	0
10	2012-07-31	76.0	0

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Lowering heights in the Great Basin and northern Rockies region should ultimately result in rising heights out east at some point during the second week of August.

WX/PT

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. No, I don't have a boat. Perhaps when I retire, I'll get one.

Living on LI I wish I had one. I’m jealous when I eat on the water and people pull up on their boats. But the costs are just too much. From paying the marina to the fuel to the repairs. I don’t know how people do it