August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Hi

That image was from the 1903 storm.  If you look at the sight it references it below just odd formatting of the web page.. 

 

Thanks. I missed it. My apologies.

[bluewave]

The below normal dewpoints and dry conditions this month are helping the daily lows drive the cool departures for a change. Looks like a slightly cooler pattern will continue for the rest of the month. If we don’t see a reversal of this drier pattern, then there could be more 90° heat on tap in September since it would be easy to warm up with such a dry pattern once the ridge returns. 
 

 

[winterwarlock]

85 and 86 the past 2 days..currently 81

[forkyfork]

there's no way 1821 was a 3 in nj

[winterwx21]

No rain in sight other than the slight chance of a shower late tonight. It's nice that we're going to have a long stretch of beautiful weather, but the lack of rain is a concern. Parts of the area have moved into a moderate drought and it's only going to get worse over the next couple weeks. I hope we're not heading towards the same situation we had last fall with a severe drought. 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's no way 1821 was a 3 in nj

It was probably a category 2 at NJ landfall based on the below report.

https://riskandinsurance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Swiss-Re_the_big_one_us_hurricane.pdf

[steve392]

Ughhh back home, even though it's 50 miles it feels like a whole nother country lol

78, partly cloudy and a stiff breeze. 

[psv88]

Another beautiful day. 
 

sadly, a swimmer drowned off of fire island yesterday. Rip currents were brutal 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 86 and clouds stayed north and it was partly cloudy here.

[FPizz]

84 here today, lots of clouds

[winterwarlock]

Another 86 on the board today. Very dry here so expecting highs to overperform this week

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region could see a shower tonight or early tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region. In the wake of the frontal passage, high temperatures will top out in the lower and perhaps middle 80s tomorrow before the push of cooler air overspreads the region.

Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread.

On account of the cool air, August 2025 will be among the five coolest Augusts since 2000. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +15.90 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.087 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Another 86 on the board today. Very dry here so expecting highs to overperform this week

Highs yes and lows will be colder than forecast