August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Cfa]

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me.

It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

[steve392]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me.

It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

The north fork getting lit up good on radar!

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, Cfa said:

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me.

It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

swing and a miss for most of us today

[donsutherland1]

The coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region tonight. As a result, this weekend will see low temperatures fall into the 50s in New York City with some 40s in the colder suburbs. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist into next week. A system could bring at least some rain during or after the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +19.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.815 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (2.5° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.