August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[WestBabylonWeather]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro back north again with a 2nd max up in Massachusetts like the NAM

[winterwarlock]

Pretty bad that nobody knows what's going to happen the next 24 hours

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

So a case could be made for a forecast for 1/2 inch to 1/2 foot.

 

I'll take the under

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

That would be great but as always this summer I'll believe it when I see it. Could easily focus way inland/north. Have to watch it evolve. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'll take the under

Same here. Pretty good evidence tonight that if there is going to be very heavy rain, it will likely be to the south. Most of the 0z models give our area a quarter to half inch. I'd be very happy to get a half inch. I see the HRRR backed off on the insane amounts, but it still does show some isolated 5 to 6 inch amounts so the south. 

[bluewave]

We generally need a least a recurving hurricane from August 20th through 31st to avoid 90° heat at the warm spots like Newark. This could be the first August since 2011 and 2008 that Newark remains below 90° during this period. We had Irene in late August 2011 and Hanna in 2008. But those systems came further west than Erin will. So this shows that even a storm recurving to our east can cool the pattern when interacting with a trough in Eastern Canada. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 20th to 31st Max Temp
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-08-31	95	0
2023-08-31	91	0
2022-08-31	93	0
2021-08-31	97	0
2020-08-31	93	0
2019-08-31	92	0
2018-08-31	96	0
2017-08-31	91	0
2016-08-31	95	0
2015-08-31	94	0
2014-08-31	93	0
2013-08-31	91	0
2012-08-31	94	0
2011-08-31	89	0
2010-08-31	98	0
2009-08-31	94	0
2008-08-31	86	0

[donsutherland1]

The 8/20 0z HREF:

[wdrag]

Not threading but will be interesting this afternoon-tonight.  from my view of multi modeling...one axis of potential excessive is near I90 to ne CT-RI, and a secondary axis from Monmouth-Ocean Counties to e LI.  Whether out NYC subforum sees isolated 2-5", I'm unsure so no thread.

Will post the 24 hour amounts via CoCoRaHs around 845A Thursday.  

[ForestHillWx]

Drove north through the rain starting in Lavalette; ended south of New Brunswick.

Hoping to get something in Chester as it is very dry. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

68 / 65 clouds and onshore flow with Erin slowly crawling north well offshore.  Rain so far well nort into NYS and N-PA.  Rain today / Thu  1 -2/3 in localized spots - we'll see.  Clear out and dry out overnight Thu into Fri.  Another mainly dry weekend and a bit warmer, especially Saturday.  Clouds arrive later on Sunday.  Timing of front Sunday seems to be later in the evening and night into Monday with next round of rain/storms.   Trough into the northeast most of the week with ridge building east and warmer by the very close of the month 31st.   Warmer beyond.

 

8/20 - 8/21:   Clouds / rain enhanced by a well ofshore Erin
8/22 - 8/24 :   Warmer Drier / Sunday clouds up later
8/25 - 8/30:  Trough into the northeast / cooler
8/31 - beyond :   Ridge expanding / warmer

 

 

 

 

 

[Rmine1]

Rain in Brightwaters. Perfect weather to be a lifeguard. No beach goers, the water is warm, and the waves are calling. Body surf time. 
 

PSA: only the strongest of swimmers should enter the water today. 

[Rmine1]

20 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Rain in Brightwaters. Perfect weather to be a lifeguard. No beach goers, the water is warm, and the waves are calling. Body surf time. 
 

PSA: only the strongest of swimmers should enter the water today. 

Edit: even the strongest of swimmers should give second thoughts to going in. Even as a former college swimmer, and ocean guard I made the mistake of going in the day before Hurricane Gloria. Yes I’m that old

[bluewave]

Already a 7 foot swell before the 15+foot swell arrives tomorrow.
 

 

[Stormlover74]

It has been raining even with radar showing very little

[TJW014]

8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Edit: even the strongest of swimmers should give second thoughts to going in. Even as a former college swimmer, and ocean guard I made the mistake of going in the day before Hurricane Gloria. Yes I’m that old

The amount of public freakout over this has gone way too far. All because a few people made a mistake. Is it tragic? Yes, but stuff like this has happened for years, and will continue to happen for years to come. Not everyone can swim. Not everyone can read. Not everyone can speak the same language. Not everyone is glued to the news, or their phone 24/7.  And then you'll have some of those who will defy all of that logic and reasoning too.

 

 

 

[Rmine1]

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

The amount of public freakout over this has gone way too far. All because a few people made a mistake. Is it tragic? Yes, but stuff like this has happened for years, and will continue to happen for years to come. Not everyone can swim. Not everyone can read. Not everyone can speak the same language. Not everyone is glued to the news, or their phone 24/7.  And then you'll have some of those who will defy all of that logic and reasoning too.

 

 

 

“Fear mongering” pays the bills, mixed in with the speed of information, all hell breaks loose 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Hosting a pool party on Sunday. Do I cancel it today or tomorrow? 

[winterwarlock]

.03 in the bucket

[winterwx21]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It has been raining even with radar showing very little

0.09" here so. A pretty good drizzle is coming down right now. I hope we can get a half inch here from this event. A lot of the models have the heavier action missing to the south and the north. 

[jm1220]

Lots of misery mist/drizzle. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1983)
NYC: 97 (1955)
LGA: 98 (1955)
JFK: 100 (1983)



Lows:

EWR: 52 (1949)
NYC: 55 (1949)
LGA: 58 (1949)
JFK: 55 (1949)


Historical:

 

1794: The "Battle of Fallen Timbers" took place on the Maumee River in northwestern Ohio at the sight of a windfall from a tornado. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1816: The “Year Without a Summer” continued as hard frost occurred in much of New England. Frost was seen as far south as Connecticut. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1863: A tornado struck Charlestown Navy yard, east Boston, MA. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1886 - The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States.

 

1904: A destructive, estimated F4 tornado moved east-southeast from 7 miles west-northwest of Willow Lake, SD through the town, and on into Bryant, SD. All buildings on at least three farms were blown away. One woman died in Bryant, as the tornado swept across the residential west side of town. Another man was killed just west of Willow Lake, as his farm house was scattered for miles. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1910 - The big blow up of forest fires finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires which burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of which were fire fighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world producing some dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws. (David Ludlum)

1928 - A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries.

1939: On the 19th and 20th the remnants of a tropical storm dumped 14.81 inches of rain on Tuckerton, NJ on the 19th and 20th. That remains the state's greatest 24-hour rainfall at an official weather observation station. (Ref. Hurricane Map and NWS Monthly Weather Review )

1950: Canadian high pressure brought record low temperatures for the date. The following locations reported record low temperatures for August: Owen, WI: 28°, Blair, WI: 33°, Cresco, IA 34°, Platteville, WI: 38°, Trempealeau, WI: 40°, Alma, WI: 42°, Quincy, IL: 42° and Lynxville, WI: 44°. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1955: Diane flood highest in state since 1942; Wisconsin Ave. gauge at 8.75 ft Diane's Storm Track - NOAA. Gov.- National Hurricane Center

1969: Camille on the 20th had 27.00 rain in Nelson Co., VA. 24 hour record 113 drowned. No warning was issued but this would have made little difference since most were asleep as houses were destroyed. It was said that the rain was so heavy that birds, which have nostrils on the tops of their beaks, drowned while perched on trees. The James River in Richmond, VA at Westham crested at 24.8 feet or Richmond's 3rd worst flood. June of 1972 after Hurricane Agnes the crest was 28.62 feet which was Richmond's second worst flood, the worst flood was May 27th, 1771. After this event, the total damage from Camille was $1.4 billion dollars. Camille in Virginia - Wikipedia.org (Ref. More About Hurricane Camille)(Ref. for River level)

1983: The remnants of Hurricane Alicia brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of southern and central Oklahoma. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches in less than 6 hours occurred in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, the hardest hit part of the state. Major flooding occurred west of El Reno, while high water crept into a few buildings at the University of Oklahoma campus in Norman. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1983: The temperature at Greenville, GA reached 112 °F to establish a state maximum temperature record for Georgia. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1987 - Half a dozen cities in the Central Plains Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 102 degrees, and Goodland KS with a high of 104 degrees. Hill City KS reached 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sheridan, WY, reported a record hot temperature reading of 100 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail near Fortuna ND, and wind gusts to 70 mph near Webster SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with up to six inches reported around Tulsa OK. Some roads in the Tulsa area were closed by water 10 to 12 feet deep. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 75 mph in Major County OK, and hail two inches in diameter at Jennings KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: Tropical Storm Andrew continued his struggle to maintain himself near 22N/63W as strong upper level winds from a cold upper low to its north sheared the convection. Despite Andrew's broad, poorly organized center with a lowest sea level pressure of only 1015 millibars or 29.97 inches of mercury, an Air Force reconnaissance plane still found sustained 80 mph winds at the 1500 foot level in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. Andrew managed to hold his own and once the wind shear abated late on the 21st, the storm began a rapid intensification curve. Andrew eventually became a strong category five hurricane that went on to devastate south Florida as a massive high pressure area built to Andrew's north and steered him westward.
Temperatures fall into the 30s in some rural areas in Michigan during the coldest August on record at Grand Rapids. Record lows for the day include 42° at Muskegon, MI and 43° at Grand Rapids, MI. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: One of the worst floods in history for parts of southern New Jersey occurred as heavy thunderstorms dumped torrential rain from Delaware into southeastern New Jersey. 11.12 inches of rain at Atlantic City, NJ shattered their record precipitation for the date and for any single date. The rains brought the total for the month to 15.74 inches which broke the old monthly record set in 1967. At the marina in Atlantic City, just 10 miles from the airport, only 2.60 inches fell. 3.17 inches of rain fell in one hour at the airport. The airport and almost every road in the area were closed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2001: Double jeopardy or triple jeopardy at South Carolina's Isle of Palms, lightning struck the CB antenna of a pickup. When the driver stepped out of the truck to check the damage another bolt hit the bed of the truck throwing him onto the highway but but he wasn't hit and survived.
(Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) Two farmhands in a three-sided, metal, calf-feeding pen were killed by lightning on a farm near Remington in Fauquier County, VA. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

[SACRUS]

[Brian5671]

Chilly here with east winds and overcast skies 68

[donsutherland1]

The 12z HREF:

[MANDA]

Chilly and damp here with some occasional light drizzle.

I'm hoping for 1/2" at least.  So dry. 

[SACRUS]

 

Nice view with Erin coming up

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

[Santa Claus]

PRE is so far north

this is a disaster

[WE GOT HIM]

30 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

PRE is so far north

this is a disaster

so bad

[jm1220]

41 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

PRE is so far north

this is a disaster

Meso models hinted at it yesterday. I-90 special. These very rarely if ever work out IMBY. Somehow they always nudge north and west. I guess 12-15 more hours of mist that gets the total to 0.5”. 

[Stormlover74]

The activity in PA seems to be moving this way