August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[SACRUS]

 

Some clearing slowly working its way down

 

73 / 58 socked in clouds but some brightening

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

 

Im not sure but suspect they might have seen plenty of cloud cover this month.

[wdrag]

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring.  

I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread.  Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum.

Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF. 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring.  

I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread.  Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum.

Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF. 

 

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month. 

[mgerb]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month. 

Yeah. I'm at 0.46" month-to-date (actually back to 7/27). Among the driest in the state (at least for CoCoRaHS). 

https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=mtd&displayna=0&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.86859130859376,39.65645604812829,-72.25433349609376,41.44066745847661

 

[jm1220]

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Stuck in the muck still mai

 

[wdrag]

May issue a thread tomorrow morning for  general 1/2-2" drought relieving rain event 10Z Wed-10z Thu, isolated 5".  Too early, especially since 18z WPC less than 0.1" this week NYC subforum as too the 13z BOM.  Meanwhile 12z EPS/EPS AI increasing since 00z cycles.  12z NAM had the idea of iso 3+.  Again way too early for me but either physics is out to lunch or something else is wrong with my thinking. PRE conceptual sampler added. Just shift the modeling a bit too the east.   Everything now within the 42-84 time hr frame. 

[donsutherland1]

A dramatic change to a sustained period of cooler weather has now occurred. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday and Friday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.73 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.721 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either. 

They were taking everything off the beach in LBC

[winterwarlock]

Mt Holly disco not buying into much significance of any rain

[winterwarlock]

74 for high

 

Coldest day since 69 on 6/27

 

8 day heatwave comes to a crashing end

[JerseyWx]

Pretty surprised when I took a look at my 10 day.

Cool and rainy Wednesday, slight warm up for the weekend, and then a taste of early fall next week?  Low 50's showing up at night.  

 

[Stormlover74]

59 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Pretty surprised when I took a look at my 10 day.

Cool and rainy Wednesday, slight warm up for the weekend, and then a taste of early fall next week?  Low 50's showing up at night.  

 

Euro went crazy for Wednesday/Thursday. 3-5" now

[SACRUS]

 

Highs for some midnight/1AM maxes and overall coolest day since Aug 1st

 

EWR: 78
ISP: 78
JFK: 78
LGA: 77
PHL: 77
NYC: 76
TEB: 76
BLM: 75
New Brnswck: 74
ACY: 74
TTN: 73

 

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

74 for high

 

Coldest day since 69 on 6/27

 

8 day heatwave comes to a crashing end

No midnight/1AM max, what was your temp split on AUg 1st?

[psv88]

Fall is here 

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Fall is here 

I wish

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro went crazy for Wednesday/Thursday. 3-5" now

Hey we need it.  Been getting skunked lately with storms.  Those amounts seem high though, but I guess we'll see.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Hey we need it.  Been getting skunked lately with storms.  Those amounts seem high though, but I guess we'll see.

Yeah I would take it as long as its spread out over 2 days

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro went crazy for Wednesday/Thursday. 3-5" now

it also shows 40 mph gusts thursday

[Stormlover74]

Nam has very little 

[bluewave]

Yeah, nice to see the Euro start showing a PRE since we really need it. But the placement of these features can be very fickle like IVTs in the winter. We can remember back in 2021 showing the PRE in SNJ and it would up in NYC. But at least there is now the potential for someone around the area to get some much needed rainfall even if later runs switch the location near the jet entrance region. 
 

 

 

[winterwarlock]

Mt Holly: 

as an upper level trough approaches, the same trough that will
eventually carry Hurricane Erin out to sea. Rain chances are around
20-40% across the region and any precipitation will be light and non
impactful. Cloudy and cool otherwise with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

[SACRUS]

 

69 / 56 clear out.  Into the cool we descend.  Period of onshore and cooler with potential localized (much discussed) rain from influences of Erin   Wed-Thu (AM).  Beyond there drier and another (5th or 6th in a row) nice weekend coming up.  Riding near to slightly below normal Thu - Sun.  Front arrives and late Sunday and overnight into Monday then trough into the northeast Mon - most of next week.   Some moderation towards the close of the month but likely the reversal waits till the last day of August to shift warmer and beyond.

8/19 - 8/21 :   Cooler /    Rain localized Erin influenced/enhances Wed/Thu.  (north)
8/22 - 8/24 : Near normal - great dry weekend
8/25 :   Front - storms next chance after the Wed/Thu AM Erin rain. 
8/26 - 8/30 :  Trough - cooler - perhaps wetter overall
8/31 - Beyond :    Ridge building east - Warmer overall

 

[LAVistaNY]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, nice to see the Euro start showing a PRE since we really need it. But the placement of these features can be very fickle like IVTs in the winter. We can remember back in 2021 showing the PRE in SNJ and it would up in NYC. But at least there is now the potential for someone around the area to get some much needed rainfall even if later runs switch the location near the jet entrance region. 
 

 

 

BLD on top of the recent loss of the ash trees is just heart breaking. At least they working on the American chestnut!

[wdrag]

No thread until 230PM:

PRE seems in play but best axis for 2-4" rain, isolated 5" is unknown though may be favoring LI or NJ.  Just too soon. It's banded so some folks only 1/4" and others rejoice in 2+.  12z/19 guidance may be helpful.

Timing of wetting event (positive impact imo for many in recent drought) is Noon Wed-Noon Thu.  

While impacts positive for needed rain, I think there will be fairly high negative impact Wed even-Thu AM commutes in and out of NYC. 

 

Second part of a potential thread is the unknown, whether TS gusts will reach s LI and Nj coasts (gusts 40-50 MPH) later Thu.

Possibility of moderate coastal flooding, mainly NJ coast Thu eve.

 

Rip currents and high surf are a given.

 

 

 

 

 

[winterwarlock]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

No midnight/1AM max, what was your temp split on AUg 1st?

I think 75 but that was when the Hillsborough  thermo was busted

[FPizz]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam has very little 

Most models don't have very much for most of the area

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Most models don't have very much for most of the area

Yeah the euro backed way off