August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[SACRUS]

 

Some clearing slowly working its way down

 

73 / 58 socked in clouds but some brightening

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

 

Im not sure but suspect they might have seen plenty of cloud cover this month.

[wdrag]

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring.  

I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread.  Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum.

Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF. 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring.  

I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread.  Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum.

Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF. 

 

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month. 

[mgerb]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month. 

Yeah. I'm at 0.46" month-to-date (actually back to 7/27). Among the driest in the state (at least for CoCoRaHS). 

https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=mtd&displayna=0&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.86859130859376,39.65645604812829,-72.25433349609376,41.44066745847661

 

[jm1220]

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Stuck in the muck still mai

 

[wdrag]

May issue a thread tomorrow morning for  general 1/2-2" drought relieving rain event 10Z Wed-10z Thu, isolated 5".  Too early, especially since 18z WPC less than 0.1" this week NYC subforum as too the 13z BOM.  Meanwhile 12z EPS/EPS AI increasing since 00z cycles.  12z NAM had the idea of iso 3+.  Again way too early for me but either physics is out to lunch or something else is wrong with my thinking. PRE conceptual sampler added. Just shift the modeling a bit too the east.   Everything now within the 42-84 time hr frame. 

[donsutherland1]

A dramatic change to a sustained period of cooler weather has now occurred. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday and Friday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.73 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.721 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.