August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[SACRUS]

 

Some clearing slowly working its way down

 

73 / 58 socked in clouds but some brightening

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

 

Im not sure but suspect they might have seen plenty of cloud cover this month.

[wdrag]

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring.  

I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread.  Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum.

Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF. 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring.  

I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread.  Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum.

Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF. 

 

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month. 

[mgerb]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 12z Euro now gives us a significant amount of rain Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed because we really need it. Almost nothing here over the last month. 

Yeah. I'm at 0.46" month-to-date (actually back to 7/27). Among the driest in the state (at least for CoCoRaHS). 

https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=mtd&displayna=0&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.86859130859376,39.65645604812829,-72.25433349609376,41.44066745847661

 

[jm1220]

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Stuck in the muck still mai

 

[wdrag]

May issue a thread tomorrow morning for  general 1/2-2" drought relieving rain event 10Z Wed-10z Thu, isolated 5".  Too early, especially since 18z WPC less than 0.1" this week NYC subforum as too the 13z BOM.  Meanwhile 12z EPS/EPS AI increasing since 00z cycles.  12z NAM had the idea of iso 3+.  Again way too early for me but either physics is out to lunch or something else is wrong with my thinking. PRE conceptual sampler added. Just shift the modeling a bit too the east.   Everything now within the 42-84 time hr frame.