August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

Have I mentioned how much I hate the Pivotal color pallete?

I would have considered subscribing but I can't stand the colors. 

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro backed off the heat a bit-Wed is the hottest day with a couple places touching 100

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

I know we are way in advance here, but how’s the end of the month looking? preferably Labor Day weekend. I’ll be at the shore.

155 mph hurricane straight into Jones Beach, 20 foot surge. I’d lock yourself up in the bunker now. And prepare your goodbyes, although everyone you say goodbye to is likely screwed too. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

yeah-a hot dry stretch with limited if any precip even a half inch wouldn't do much with the warm/hot pattern

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

Yeah and everything's quickly turning brown. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Working from home this week and taking a lunch break outside. It’s rather pleasant out. Slight tick up in humidity but very comfortable with a light ENE breeze. 

Weather has been nice but man it is boring as hell.  I'd rather watch water evaporate.  

Soon to become hot and boring.  It also looks to continue pretty dry.  Lawn is crisping and garden needs regular watering.

Missed out on any big rains here over the last several weeks.  Hopefully in the next week to 10 days we'll have something meaningful to track in the tropics.  Big ridge out there so westerly movement is favored over re-curvature OTS in the longer term.  

 

[Brian5671]

yeah very boring of late...and any tropical activity is still in fantasy range.

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah and everything's quickly turning brown. 

That flooding that we had seems like a long time ago. It's gonna be rough next week with no rain to go along with the heat. I'm concerned about going into a drought in the coming weeks. This Euro run doesn't even give our area an inch of rain for the entire run. I hope it changes, but right now it looks like a very dry pattern. A lot of watering will be needed. 

[lee59]

Nice day out there today with a temperature of 79  and a ESE breeze.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

e

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Nice day out there today with a temperature of 79  and a ESE breeze.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

e

same here-77 with a nice breeze-house is opened up which is great on the wallet

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has one of the strongest mid-August heatwaves we have seen. It has a Sunday to Sunday extended heatwave. Peaking on Wednesday at 102° in the usual NJ warm spots. So some spots will be near 40 days reaching 90° by the 17th.

Euro NJ warm spots forecast

Sun….93°….8-10

Mon….96°

Tue…..99°

Wed….102°

Thurs..98°

Fri…..94°

Sat….95°

Sun…95°….8-17

1944 stands as the strongest August heatwave during that period.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1944-08-10	97
1944-08-11	102
1944-08-12	98
1944-08-13	100
1944-08-14	98
1944-08-15	99
1944-08-16	99
1944-08-17	95

 

 

euro track record on how hot it will get is very dubious..

[bluewave]

Maybe we can disrupt this dry heat pattern a bit after the 17th if the EPS is correct about the tropics becoming more active near the East Coast. But that is still a pretty far ways off to know if the model is correct. Plus we keep seeing the heat reload into the longer range all summer even when the models have forecast a relaxation.

But in the old days we could often count on the tropics to break these heatwaves extending into mid-August. Just not sure if this will be the case yet. But it’s worth monitoring. 
 

August 18-25 

[donsutherland1]

The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal. Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. 

A new round of heat could begin to develop on Sunday. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat next week. The probability of extreme heat has increased in recent days. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots Tuesday through Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.63 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.560 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal. Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. 

A new round of heat could begin to develop on Sunday. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat next week. The probability of extreme heat has increased in recent days. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots Tuesday through Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.63 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.560 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.6° above normal). 

 

Don I like these updates you do. Would it be too much to ask if you also added the potential departure from normal compared to the 1981-2010 normals as well?

Many times, a month finishes a little below normal when the previous average would have yielded a little bit above average. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Don I like these updates you do. Would it be too much to ask if you also added the potential departure from normal compared to the 1981-2010 normals as well?

Many times, a month finishes a little below normal when the previous average would have yielded a little bit above average. 

I've revised the post and added it.

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I've revised the post and added it.

Thank you! That difference is so significant considering it was only a 10 year update. 

Having both normals also reminds people how much things have changed. 

[WE GOT HIM]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the GFS max temperatures around the area are similar to the Euro. Main difference with the GFS is that the heat peaks a day later than the Euro. But both models are showing 102° max potential at the usual warm spots.

GFS max temperatures

Mon…97°

Tues..99°

Wed…100°

Thurs..102°

Cooked

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

155 mph hurricane straight into Jones Beach, 20 foot surge. I’d lock yourself up in the bunker now. And prepare your goodbyes, although everyone you say goodbye to is likely screwed too. 

Cat 4 does a cyclonic loop right between the outer banks and Bermuda. Multiple days of 20 foot surf and sunny skies. If we are going to dream we are going to dream big and take out a couple houses on dune road. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the GFS max temperatures around the area are similar to the Euro. Main difference with the GFS is that the heat peaks a day later than the Euro. But both models are showing 102° max potential at the usual warm spots.

GFS max temperatures

Mon…97°

Tues..99°

Wed…100°

Thurs..102°

Nice, is the source region Sonoran? All-time August record high of 118F today at PHX!

[MorristownWx]

Some of the best weather of the year over the last couple of days. Next 3 days look perfect as well. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 84
EWR: 81
NYC: 81
LGA: 81
TEB: 81
New Brnswck: 80
TTN: 80
ACY: 79
ISP: 79
JFK: 79 * missing readings
BLM: 78

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, MorristownWx said:

Some of the best weather of the year over the last couple of days. Next 3 days look perfect as well. 

Perfect evening to be outside 

[lee59]

After a high of 81, down to 66 now

[lee59]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 84
EWR: 81
NYC: 81
LGA: 81
TEB: 81
New Brnswck: 80
TTN: 80
ACY: 79
ISP: 79
JFK: 79 * missing readings
BLM: 78

Newark and Central Park the same high temperature. They must have cut the trees in Central Park and took them over to Newark.

[donsutherland1]

Next week's heat is continuing to look more significant, even as the most anomalous heat will likely be focused on western  and upstate New York, eastern Ontario (including Toronto), southern Quebec (including Montreal), and northern New England. In that area, daily records could be challenged during the peak of the heat.

The latest ECMWF maps are below.

Extreme Forecast Index (August 11-18):

Monday, August 11:

Tuesday, August 12:

Wednesday, August 13:

Weekly Temperature Anomalies:

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Cat 4 does a cyclonic loop right between the outer banks and Bermuda. Multiple days of 20 foot surf and sunny skies. If we are going to dream we are going to dream big and take out a couple houses on dune road. 

And since it'll be coming N at 50 mph, on the east side that means 205 mph winds! Bye Bye Fire Island

[psv88]

81 today. Beautiful evening on the boat. Stayed out past dark and it was a perfect night. 

[doncat]

58° this am...been a pleasant first 3rd of the month, with a -5° temp departure here.

[donsutherland1]

The temperature has reached 64 at Central Park. That is the second 3-day streak with lows of 64 or below. The last time that occurred in August was 2008. The last time there were two such streaks during August 1-10 was 1921.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, WE GOT HIM said:

Cooked

The 0z Euro backed off the 100° heat and has more onshore flow. But the GFS still has 101° heat on Wednesday. With the late July heatwave, the Euro had a cool bias and missed a few of the 100s that verified. Would be nice if this 0z Euro had a clue and the 100° heat misses to our north in Maine.