August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[MorristownWx]

Easily the best weather weekend of the summer!

[jm1220]

HRRR says smoke should rotate down into our area tomorrow. Shouldn’t be bad near the surface but enough to make it hazy. 

[forkyfork]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR says smoke should rotate down into our area tomorrow. Shouldn’t be bad near the surface but enough to make it hazy. 

it mixes the smoke to the surface away from the sea breeze

[donsutherland1]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a lovely vision Don, do you have your own boat?

 

Thanks. No, I don't have a boat. Perhaps when I retire, I'll get one.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks hot to me, well above normal in the extended

We see triple digit heat mid august I say. The worst of it is NOT over just cause we're having a little break from the extreme heat/humidity first week of august. Many people are jumping the gun on second half of summer.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

71 / 59 and another beaut of a day on tap.  Warmer than yesterday by a few mid 80s.  Monday warmer still with some inland areas to 90. With a similar Tue.   Likely see clouds push back in on Wed from the south and clear out Thu, with the brunt of the rain down into MD and points outh.  Overall near normal week - dry and lots of sunshine.    Flow remains manly onshore the next 5 days with flow coming around more southerly with a warmer / hotter and wet overall next week. 

 

8/3 - 8/8 :   Near normal / below - dry overall - Wed/Thu clouds - rain looks to stay southwest
8/8 - beyond :   Warm- Hot / Humid - wet overall - Tropics  - heat for the area targeting the 9-12 period.

 

 

I'm going to partially disagree with a some things that have been said. Firstly, I think the onshore flow around the relatively cool HP is mostly this week. Then from what I'm looking at there is a fairly brief spell of warmer/hotter weather later in week #2 pending no significant tropical activity up our way. GFS thinks there will be some.  Then it appears a fresh Canadian air mass drops southeast bringing possibly a spell of well below normal temperatures by sometime during week #3. After that I speculate purely based on the pattern that we may see one last or the second to last spell of heat as the ridge builds around on the return flow of that air mass probably not long duration but we'll see. All in all, it looks like an average to slightly above average August temperature-wise.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

90 tomorrow?

Doubtful locally except for EWR where it's almost always likely and some points well north and west. I would think Central Park 87, LGA 85, EWR 91.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Near

 

 

Yeah, a warmer than average pattern following this more comfortable start to August relative to what we have seen so far.

June 21st-through July 31st was the warmest on record for spots like Newark and Islip. So while that is a warmer than average forecast, it’s not nearly as warm as we just experienced.

In this much warmer world, less warm has become a substitute for the cool summer patterns which used to be frequent before 2010. 
 
We would often see 1 to 3 warmer summers followed by a pullback to a genuinely cooler summer. But we haven’t seen a genuinely cooler summer since 2009.

These days it’s all near to record warm summers followed by a less warm summer like 2023 instead of a cool one by historical standards. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Warmest June 21st through July 31st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-07-31	82.4	0
2	2010-07-31	82.1	0
3	1993-07-31	81.8	0
4	2024-07-31	81.2	0
-	1994-07-31	81.2	0
5	2022-07-31	81.0	0
-	2011-07-31	81.0	0
6	2020-07-31	80.4	0
-	2013-07-31	80.4	0
7	2012-07-31	80.3	0
8	1999-07-31	80.0	0
9	2019-07-31	79.9	0
10	2002-07-31	79.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY warmest June 21st Through July 31st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-07-31	78.8	0
2	2010-07-31	77.9	0
3	1999-07-31	77.7	0
4	2013-07-31	77.4	0
5	2019-07-31	77.3	0
6	2020-07-31	77.2	0
7	2024-07-31	76.5	0
8	1994-07-31	76.3	0
9	2011-07-31	76.2	0
10	2012-07-31	76.0	0

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Lowering heights in the Great Basin and northern Rockies region should ultimately result in rising heights out east at some point during the second week of August.

WX/PT

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. No, I don't have a boat. Perhaps when I retire, I'll get one.

Living on LI I wish I had one. I’m jealous when I eat on the water and people pull up on their boats. But the costs are just too much. From paying the marina to the fuel to the repairs. I don’t know how people do it

[Dan76]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Living on LI I wish I had one. I’m jealous when I eat on the water and people pull up on their boats. But the costs are just too much. From paying the marina to the fuel to the repairs. I don’t know how people do it

There's half the amount of boats on the water as there were in the 80's when I started,

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

There's half the amount of boats on the water as there were in the 80's when I started,

I was at the lake house in Bayshore last weekend. Boat pulled up and hit another boat then he hit the wooden pole. The waiter jumped on the boat to help

[Dan76]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I was at the lake house in Bayshore last weekend. Boat pulled up and hit another boat then he hit the wooden pole. The waiter jumped on the boat to help

Somethings never change lol

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm going to partially disagree with a some things that have been said. Firstly, I think the onshore flow around the relatively cool HP is mostly this week. Then from what I'm looking at there is a fairly brief spell of warmer/hotter weather later in week #2 pending no significant tropical activity up our way. GFS thinks there will be some.  Then it appears a fresh Canadian air mass drops southeast bringing possibly a spell of well below normal temperatures by sometime during week #3. After that I speculate purely based on the pattern that we may see one last or the second to last spell of heat as the ridge builds around on the return flow of that air mass probably not long duration but we'll see. All in all, it looks like an average to slightly above average August temperature-wise.

WX/PT

I don’t see any of this “cool”. Even today was supposed to be below average by a few degrees, yet most of the area is at or above average by a few degrees for a high. The whole week was supposed to be average to below average and moderated warmer as it got closer. I do remember you calling for a cooler summer too back in April/May, and so far this has been an impressively hot/humid summer most of the summer. Sure, we had a slow start, but it hasn’t been a cool summer. 
 

@BxEngineenjoy the cruise. If you are in the Getaway we will be on it next week. Now I expect a major hurricane to send us to Canada because that’s my luck! 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Living on LI I wish I had one. I’m jealous when I eat on the water and people pull up on their boats. But the costs are just too much. From paying the marina to the fuel to the repairs. I don’t know how people do it

It’s great to have a boat but not with kids who have lots of activities. For me the boat is great without kids but when kids bring their friends and parents it becomes a chore and I am just a charter captain for the day working my ass off. Not fun. 
 

85 today 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn briefly noticeably warmer for tomorrow and Tuesday before another somewhat cooler air mass arrives. Durng tomorrow, smoke could dim the sun at times and lead to air quality issues, especially north of New York City.

The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.307 today. 

 

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will turn briefly noticeably warmer for tomorrow and Tuesday before another somewhat cooler air mass arrives. Durng tomorrow, smoke could dim the sun at times and lead to air quality issues, especially north of New York City.

The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.307 today. 

 

Don, does the August 15-20 period look particularly hot, any tropical activity? Thanks.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, does the August 15-20 period look particularly hot, any tropical activity? Thanks.

90s are possible. I don’t think it will rival the late June and also peak July heat. The Atlantic might see 1-2 tropical cyclones, but the forecast pattern isn’t one that favors landfalls. A lot can still change given the lead time.