July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[winterwx21]

Euro now brings the 90s back early to mid next week. Looks like a break for a few days and then we go back to the heat. 

It's 94 with a dewpoint of 67 here right now. Doesn't feel terrible today. 

[LoboLeader1]

93/67. 

[jm1220]

Up to 95. Doesn’t feel atrocious but still pretty damn hot. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Up to 95. Doesn’t feel atrocious but still pretty damn hot. 

Yeah, 2nd warmest summer on record so far for Long Island with numerous top 10s since 2010.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest June 1st- July 27th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-07-27	77.8	0
2	2025-07-27	75.9	0
3	2011-07-27	75.8	0
4	2024-07-27	75.6	0
5	2008-07-27	75.2	0
-	1948-07-27	75.2	46
6	2020-07-27	75.1	0
7	2016-07-27	75.0	0
-	2013-07-27	75.0	0
-	1994-07-27	75.0	0
8	1983-07-27	74.9	0
9	2012-07-27	74.7	0
-	1949-07-27	74.7	0
10	1999-07-27	74.6	0
-	1991-07-27	74.6	0
-	1952-07-27	74.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Warmest June 1st-July 27th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-07-27	75.0	0
-	1999-07-27	75.0	0
2	2025-07-27	74.9	0
3	2024-07-27	74.3	0
4	2013-07-27	74.1	0
-	1994-07-27	74.1	0
5	2020-07-27	73.8	0
6	2011-07-27	73.7	0
7	2008-07-27	73.6	0
8	2019-07-27	73.5	0
9	1966-07-27	73.0	0
10	2014-07-27	72.9	0
-	1991-07-27	72.9	0

 

 

[Nibor]

Surprisingly bearable outside. 

[steve392]

54 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Surprisingly bearable outside. 

To who, Satan?  LOL

[wdrag]

Don's pre-summer outlook of a statistically significantly warmer than normal summer looks like it will come to pass with June-July at KEWR top 6.  Very good statistical call barring a chilly August.

Waiting on a thread til tomorrow morning for two 100F days at KEWR,  (for me unexpected in lae June),  to be followed by a potential widespread 1-4" forum rainfall with iso 8"... EPS through 12z/28 cycle continues strong on this, though edging northward.  I also have to think there has to be a stripe of svr near the boundary Thursday?   Just too early for me to be sure the EPS is going to be mostly correct.  From what I can tell, WPC is so far,  accepting the EPS solution. 

[winterwarlock]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro now brings the 90s back early to mid next week. Looks like a break for a few days and then we go back to the heat. 

It's 94 with a dewpoint of 67 here right now. Doesn't feel terrible today. 

95 was my high with dews in upper 70s. Peak heat index was 108

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, steve392 said:

To who, Satan?  LOL

To Warlock

[Nibor]

Hoboken around 7PM

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

EWR: 97
TEB: 96
ACY: 96
JFK: 95
ISP: 95
New Brnswck: 95
LGA: 95
NYC: 94
PHL: 94
BLM: 92
TTN: 92

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

MCS into WPA -  Last visible loop sees the clouds racing into PA

 

Good thing this wasnt later overnight or clouds could have had a similar effect to the Jun 22nd MCS which limited many from heating to 90, this time whatever clouds look to be long gone by the morning.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

EWR moves into tie with '73 / 2018 for number of 95F or higher days season leaders.  Tomorrow ties the hot 1966, 1983 seasons and Wed  1999, 91 and 2016.   Long ways to go for 88, 44, 93, 2010, 2021  and 2022.

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1993	1	25
2010	2	21
2022	3	20
1988	3	20
1944	3	20
2021	6	18
2012	7	17
2011	7	17
2002	7	17
1955	7	17
1949	11	16
2005	12	14
1953	12	14
2016	14	13
1999	14	13
1991	14	13
1987	14	13
1994	18	12
1983	18	12
1966	18	12
2018	21	11
1973	21	11
2025	21	11

[Intensewind002]

91/70 was the high here in Lindenhurst today 

[Picard]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Tons of rain the past few weeks..crabgrass galore..we have dipped to 74 dew now

There was a narrow path of 75+ dewpoints today in and around the Hillsborough area and surrounding towns.  Otherwise, not as awful as it's been in other places up here.

[hudsonvalley21]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Don's pre-summer outlook of a statistically significantly warmer than normal summer looks like it will come to pass with June-July at KEWR top 6.  Very good statistical call barring a chilly August.

Waiting on a thread til tomorrow morning for two 100F days at KEWR,  (for me unexpected in lae June),  to be followed by a potential widespread 1-4" forum rainfall with iso 8"... EPS through 12z/28 cycle continues strong on this, though edging northward.  I also have to think there has to be a stripe of svr near the boundary Thursday?   Just too early for me to be sure the EPS is going to be mostly correct.  From what I can tell, WPC is so far,  accepting the EPS solution. 

18z NAM has a very strong look for potential severe weather.. it’s out their at 81 hours but definitely has to be watched for trends.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2025072818&fh=84

 

[psv88]

95 today. It’s been a hot summer no doubt about it 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

95 today. It’s been a hot summer no doubt about it 

was bearable offshore. fishing sucked, as usual. 2 keeper fluke in 14 hours. a couple ling, and one sea bass for each of us, which is the limit in nj. not a soul on raritan bay, in the middle of summer, in july, with perfect conditions.....they really have accomplished their goals with all the limits....people have just quit fishing. we did see several trawlers.....a whale and a ton of small sharks....not dogfish, but real sharks. 

[psv88]

38 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

was bearable offshore. fishing sucked, as usual. 2 keeper fluke in 14 hours. a couple ling, and one sea bass for each of us, which is the limit in nj. not a soul on raritan bay, in the middle of summer, in july, with perfect conditions.....they really have accomplished their goals with all the limits....people have just quit fishing. we did see several trawlers.....a whale and a ton of small sharks....not dogfish, but real sharks. 

The increased sharks are also eating a lot of the fish…

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, Nibor said:

Hoboken around 7PM

A number of us can't figure out how to easily post photos here anymore and there you are with a video...

[wdrag]

No thread from me on the around 100F (near record) heat vicinity NYC-EWR next two days---this July thread suffices.

No thread from me on the 20z Wed-20z Friday probably 1-4" needed short term rainfall near and northwest of I95...isolated higher possible. Mainstem flood threat minimal.  However several small area FFW possible Thursday CT/NYS/NNJ-LI, especially if SVR develops?    If it looks worse tomorrow morning, will thread but for now relatively routine: fun for us but nothing extraordinary yet projected.

SPC has marginal risk Wednesday and no SVR Thursday. That may need adjustment with time.

WPC has a slight risk excessive Thursday and I like that---just not willing to overcommit a thread at this time. 

This based on on modeling seen through 00z/29 and WPC products available at 553A/29.

Wish you a safe day. 

[steve392]

72 in Paramus and just oppressive already.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, psv88 said:

The increased sharks are also eating a lot of the fish…

Saw two sharks fully breach out of the water into the air yesterday within 200 yards of the beach. Had to ban swimming for a while. Bunker pods are active but still much smaller then a few years ago.

Water temps should approach 80 today and tomorrow with light winds and excellent solar heating. That means hot right to the beaches with little sea breeze relief. 

[Sundog]

There is a rare smell of tow tide here. Not helping with the extra heat and humidity this morning. 

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

A number of us can't figure out how to easily post photos here anymore and there you are with a video...

Technically it’s a gif 

[SACRUS]

 

 

84 / 72 , partly cloudy.  Heat is on - clouds in PA may mov through between 9:30 - 11:30 otherwise sunny hot.  Mid - upper 90s, enough sun the hot areas to 100.  More of the same tomorrow ahead of the front.  Front timing and clouds the caveat to Thursday getting to 90.  Storms still look to drop loads of rain where they setup Thu / Fri with slow moving boundary and ridge not budging.  Cooler east / northeast regime Sat - Tue /Wed next week .   Ridge west building erast, Atlantic ridge keeping the coast in higher heights with more southerly flow and a warm - hot and humid return towards the 8th.  Looks to be warm - hot / wetter beyond.

 

7/29 - 7/31 :   Hot / humid - storms focussed Thu PM
8/1 : Hung up boundary could be storms / wet
8/2 - 8/8 :; Cooler - East/Northeast flow - limited 90s if any at all (inland)
8/8 - beyond :   Warm - hot / humid wetter overall

 

 

 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Technically it’s a gif 

But look how high quality it is! High frame rate and resolution, at least that's how it's perceived. And it's like 12 seconds long!

I take a screenshot and the image is more than the 1.9mb limit. Good luck reducing the file size on a phone. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

There is a rare smell of tow tide here. Not helping with the extra heat and humidity this morning. 

I get that sometimes here along the LI Sound when there is an inversion with the wetlands nearby.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1949)
NYC: 99 (1949)
LGA: 97 (1949)
JFK: 98 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 58 (1962)
NYC: 57 (1903)
LGA: 62 (1984)
JFK: 61 (1965)

 

Historical:

 

1898 - The temperature at Prineville, OR, soared to 119 degrees to establish a state record, which was tied on the 10th of August at Pendleton. (The Weather Channel)

1905 - Heavy rain in southwestern Connecticut caused a dam break, and the resulting flood caused a quarter of a million dollars damage at Bridgeport. As much as eleven inches of rain fell prior to the flood. (David Ludlum)

 

1916: Temperatures soared to record highs as a ten day heat wave reached its peak. The 102° at Lansing, MI tied the record for the hottest day ever there. Grand Rapids hit 103 °F as part of a record string of four consecutive days of 100 degrees or higher. Even the Lake Michigan shore was baking, with Muskegon hitting 95°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1930: The temperature at Holly Springs, Mississippi climbed to 115 °F to establish a new maximum temperature record for Mississippi. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

 

1958: The U.S. Congress passes legislation establishing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a civilian agency responsible for coordinating America’s activities in space.



1960: Severe thunderstorms brought damaging winds, possibly as high as 100 mph to central Oklahoma. Eight planes and several hangars were damaged at Wiley Post Airfield, while two aircraft and additional hangars were damaged at Will Rogers World Airport. The winds caused seven injuries in the area, including two youths who were injured by flying debris.

1971: An unseasonably chilly air mass invaded the upper Plains and Rockies. Sheridan, WY dropped to 35°, their record lowest July temperature. Other record lows included: Rapid City, SD: 41°, Huron, SD: 42°, Valentine, NE: 42°, Billings, MT: 43°, Cheyenne, WY: 43 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

 

1974: Westchester County, NY -- Lightning associated with a brief afternoon thunderstorm killed one golfer. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1979: Hollywood, MD was drenched by a 4 inch rain in 30 minutes.

1980: Early morning thunderstorms dropped 3.53 inches of rain at Philadelphia, PA, with most between 3 AM and 6 AM, setting a daily record and resulting in considerable roadway flooding.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1981 - Fifty cattle, each weighing 800 pounds, were killed by lightning near Vance, AL. The lightning struck a tree and then spread along the ground killing the cattle. (The Weather Channel)

 

1986: Lightning struck and injured a man while he was installing drywall in his home at Berne, NY. This was the 4th time he had been hit by lightning since 1977. Intense thunderstorms over Rhode Island dumped 5.58 inches of rain and hail over a half inch in diameter at the airport in Providence. 6.26 inches of rain fell at Point Judith while Narragansett recorded 6.03 inches of rain and hail accumulated to a depth of close to 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Minnesota to Indiana and Illinois. A thunderstorm at Janesville, WI, produced wind gusts to 104 mph which flipped over two airplanes, and blew another plane 300 feet down the runway. The northeastern U.S. experienced some relief from the heat. Nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Johnsbury, VT, with a reading of 42 degrees. Barnet, VT, reported a morning low of 33 degrees, with frost reported on vegetation. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Hail three inches in diameter was reported south of Saint Cloud, MN. Hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. Fresno, CA reported a record thirteen straight days of 100 degree heat. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced more than five inches of rain west of Virgil, SD. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms deluged the foothills and adjacent plains of Colorado with heavy rain. Rains of six to seven and a half inches fell in eight hours north of Greeley. Hail and heavy rain caused several million dollars damage in Weld County. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


2004: A record-setting flash flood occurred over part of the Greenville, South Carolina, during the morning hours. Six to eight inches of rain fell just east of Berea, a northwestern suburb, which caused the Reedy River through downtown Greenville crested 9 feet above flood stage. This crest was the highest level since 1908. 

 

1996: A woman was killed while attempting to cross a low water bridge over Haw Creek in her vehicle in Morgan County, Missouri after thunderstorms dropped heavy rain causing flash flooding to occur. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Chicago, IL recorded its highest ever dew point temperatures 82° overnight on this date. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: A two year old boy picking vegetables with his parents in Blount County, Alabama was struck by lightning. The family called 911 immediately, but put the child in an automobile and started for the hospital. Paramedics caught up with the family and began CPR. An Evac helicopter was called to transport the child to the hospital, but the little boy was dead on arrival. The important thing to remember is that many lightning victims simply stop breathing. Administering CPR immediately will often resuscitate a lightning victim. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: A record setting flash flood occurred over part of the Greenville, SC, during the morning hours. Six to eight inches of rain fell just east of Berea, a northwestern suburb, which caused the Reedy River through downtown Greenville to crest 9 feet above flood stage. This was the highest level since 1908.
A 112 year-old record was broken for the coolest high temperature in Oklahoma City, OK for September. The temperature only rose to 73°, which broke the previous record by 3 degrees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Scattered afternoon storms developed over mainly south and southeastern portions of the Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi region, a few of which became severe and produced some hail and wind damage. One cluster of storms lingered over northern Forrest County, Mississippi and caused flash flooding around Hattiesburg with rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2009: The peak of a heat wave occurred today in WA State as all-time records were set at Bellingham (96), Sea-Tac Airport (103 °F -old record of 100 °F), Olympia (104 °F), and the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Sand Point-Seattle (105 °F). (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2010: The Richmond International Airport had a maximum temperature today of 101 °F that makes the ten day in 2010 with the temperature of 100 °F or more; the old record is nine set in 1954.(Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)

2011: Record Wettest July set at Chicago O'Hare- Another 1.40 inches of rainfall fell at Chicago-Ohare Airport Thursday 28th into Friday 29th morning...which brings the monthly rainfall total for July 2011 to 11.15 inches as of 7 am CDT. This sets a new record for the wettest July in recorded history in Chicago. The previous record was 9.56 inches in July of 1889. This also moves July 2011 up to the 7th wettest month ever in Chicago. In addition the all time record wettest month was August 1987 when 17.10 inches of rainfall was observed. (Ref. Chicago NWS )

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 73 despite the clouds - rocketing