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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


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26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's wild that many of these coops are still around Chris! But the one at Mineola isn't any longer is it (the one that recorded 108 in July 2011?) It would be interesting to see what they would have recorded in that June 2025 extreme heatwave.

The 108° high in Mineola was in 2010. There wasn’t any data for July 2011. Then the station shut down right after that. July 4th, 1978 was the only year there with a high in the upper 50s.
 

Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 108 0
2 2001 105 32
3 1999 103 10
- 1966 103 0
4 1988 102 50
- 1975 102 1
- 1948 102 1
5 2002 101 0
- 1973 101 0
- 1968 101 0
- 1952 101 0
6 2006 100 1
- 1993 100 8
- 1991 100 0
- 1957 100 12
- 1955 100 3


 

High Temperature Data for July 4, 1978 through July 4, 1978
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY MINEOLA COOP 57
CT DANBURY COOP 59
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 60
NY SCARSDALE COOP 60
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 61
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 61
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 61
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 61
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 62
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 62
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 62
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 62
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 62
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 62
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 62
NY WEST POINT COOP 62
CT GROTON COOP 62
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 62
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 63
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 63
NJ CRANFORD COOP 64
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 64
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 64
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 108° high in Mineola was in 2010. There wasn’t any data for July 2011. Then the station shut down right after that. July 4th, 1978 was the only year there with a high in the upper 50s.
 

Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 108 0
2 2001 105 32
3 1999 103 10
- 1966 103 0
4 1988 102 50
- 1975 102 1
- 1948 102 1
5 2002 101 0
- 1973 101 0
- 1968 101 0
- 1952 101 0
6 2006 100 1
- 1993 100 8
- 1991 100 0
- 1957 100 12
- 1955 100 3


 

High Temperature Data for July 4, 1978 through July 4, 1978
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY MINEOLA COOP 57
CT DANBURY COOP 59
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 60
NY SCARSDALE COOP 60
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 61
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 61
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 61
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 61
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 62
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 62
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 62
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 62
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 62
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 62
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 62
NY WEST POINT COOP 62
CT GROTON COOP 62
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 62
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 63
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 63
NJ CRANFORD COOP 64
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 64
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 64

Wow I wonder what they would have recorded on July 22, 2011....

In 2010 we maxed out in the low 100s here (three days).

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 108° high in Mineola was in 2010. There wasn’t any data for July 2011. Then the station shut down right after that. July 4th, 1978 was the only year there with a high in the upper 50s.
 

Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 108 0
2 2001 105 32
3 1999 103 10
- 1966 103 0
4 1988 102 50
- 1975 102 1
- 1948 102 1
5 2002 101 0
- 1973 101 0
- 1968 101 0
- 1952 101 0
6 2006 100 1
- 1993 100 8
- 1991 100 0
- 1957 100 12
- 1955 100 3


 

High Temperature Data for July 4, 1978 through July 4, 1978
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY MINEOLA COOP 57
CT DANBURY COOP 59
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 60
NY SCARSDALE COOP 60
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 61
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 61
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 61
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 61
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 62
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 62
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 62
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 62
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 62
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 62
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 62
NY WEST POINT COOP 62
CT GROTON COOP 62
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 62
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 63
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 63
NJ CRANFORD COOP 64
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 64
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 64

How was it so cold in 1978? Raining all day? What was the low Chris?

I don't see the high at JFK in this list, was it 65+ there?

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39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How was it so cold in 1978? Raining all day? What was the low Chris?

I don't see the high at JFK in this list, was it 65+ there?

Yeah, unusually cool and wet July 4th following the snowiest winter of the 1970s.

 

Climatological Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - July 1978
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1978-07-01 78 58 68.0 -5.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
1978-07-02 73 55 64.0 -9.7 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
1978-07-03 70 60 65.0 -8.9 0 0 0.99 0.0 0
1978-07-04 61 56 58.5 -15.6 6 0 1.56 0.0 0


 

Climatological Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - July 1978
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1978-07-01 84 66 75.0 0.3 0 10 0.00 0.0 0
1978-07-02 78 57 67.5 -7.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
1978-07-03 71 60 65.5 -9.6 0 1 1.73 0.0 0
1978-07-04 65 60 62.5 -12.7 2 0 0.50 0.0 0

 

Snowfall Data for October 1, 1977 through April 30, 1978
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 70.5
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 68.7
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 68.0
CT DANBURY COOP 67.0
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 66.7
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 65.2
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64.9
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 COOP 64.7
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 64.1
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 62.3
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 61.6
NJ CRANFORD COOP 60.7
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 60.2
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 59.7
NY SCARSDALE COOP 59.6
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 59.1
NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 59.0
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 58.0
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 57.5
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 57.1
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 56.0
NY MINEOLA COOP 55.8
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 55.6
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 54.2
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 52.7
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 51.6
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 51.4
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50.7
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 49.1
CT GROTON COOP 48.9
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 48.5
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 48.3
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 46.5
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 45.6
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 43.5

 

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Under the ridge - warm-hot / humid and wet - EUro similar to the GFS/C

 

test8.gif

Looks like the next warm up in mid-July will be another over the top one leaving room for moisture undercutting the ridge before then.


IMG_3951.thumb.png.3c2fd5c4545c5d521ecfaa4519d68c58.png


IMG_3961.thumb.png.eca61d931d7adeda30a70d9a9c43e6f0.png

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18 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

No exaggeration worst storm I've ever experienced. Had to be 70-80 mph gusts. Total white out. Hail. My video conked out

Hey Stormlover! I'm glad you're ok. I lost power a few seconds after my last response to you. The power just came back on now -- over 18 hours of no power here. By far the longest power outage I've ever experienced. We didn't even lose power for long here during Sandy. 

I agree with you -- this was the worst storm I've ever seen. Wind gusts were easily over 70mph here. Projectiles flying through the air like I've never seen before and the biggest amount of trees down that I've ever seen. 

Couldn't cook dinner last night with the power out, so we decided to go to Longhorn Steakhouse (they didn't lose power there). Usually it takes 8 or 9 minutes to get there, but it took over a half hour because so many roads were closed. Was starting to think I couldn't get there but I found a way. It was amazing driving around and seeing the huge amount of damage. Definitely the worst t-storm damage ever since I've lived here. 

Since the power was out so long, I decided to cancel our 4th of July cookout today. Not enough time to get things ready now. A shame because of the perfect weather, but we're gonna have the cookout tomorrow and Sunday instead. I will still light off some fireworks tonight though. 

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38 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hey Stormlover! I'm glad you're ok. I lost power a few seconds after my last response to you. The power just came back on now -- over 18 hours of no power here. By far the longest power outage I've ever experienced. We didn't even lose power for long here during Sandy. 

I agree with you -- this was the worst storm I've ever seen. Wind gusts were easily over 70mph here. Projectiles flying through the air like I've never seen before and the biggest amount of trees down that I've ever seen. 

Couldn't cook dinner last night with the power out, so we decided to go to Longhorn Steakhouse (they didn't lose power there). Usually it takes 8 or 9 minutes to get there, but it took over a half hour because so many roads were closed. Was starting to think I couldn't get there but I found a way. It was amazing driving around and seeing the huge amount of damage. Definitely the worst t-storm damage ever since I've lived here. 

Since the power was out so long, I decided to cancel our 4th of July cookout today. Not enough time to get things ready now. A shame because of the perfect weather, but we're gonna have the cookout tomorrow and Sunday instead. I will still light off some fireworks tonight though. 

Glad you made out better than we did. They haven't even started cleanup yet. I'm estimating 7 to 10 days before we have power again. Thankfully no damage to my house but many houses had trees crush them and yeah 3 deaths from trees falling on cars

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15 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I bet the roots of that tree were cut on the sidewalk side, because it was lifting the sidewalk up, then the sidewalk repaired. I am saying this because we do not see the sidewalk lifted up by the tree falling. When I was a kid we had the problem where the town cut the roots on the curb side. Hurricane Belle blew thru, and the tree fell away from the street as a result of the weakened root structure.

 

And interestingly the one street that's lined with sycamore had almost no damage. It's those damn old oaks I guess

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50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Glad you made out better than we did. They haven't even started cleanup yet. I'm estimating 7 to 10 days before we have power again. Thankfully no damage to my house but many houses had trees crush them and yeah 3 deaths from trees falling on cars

Yea cars are death traps in windstorms. When we had a down burst a few weeks ago I pulled over into a parking lot with no trees. Didn’t want to risk a tree coming down

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16 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

What the heck happened to the entire first floor of that second picture. 

 

Disintegrated.  Any wreckage either wound up in a nearby marina, or was washed into the Barnegat Bay.  What I find unbelievable is that they said that there were not any underwater obstructions after Sandy.  My boat, mounted on the trailer, snapped off and settled in a nearby federal wetlands.  Sea Tow insurance would not take it, and they said it would be a few thousand to rescue it.  Luckily, I declared it lost and the insurance took claim of it.  Later, the federal government said I had to move it, but I told them the insurance company now "owns" it.  The area, Good Luck Pont in Bayville NJ was a total war zone.  I had thought I would never see so much damage in person...

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58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And interestingly the one street that's lined with sycamore had almost no damage. It's those damn old oaks I guess

Different types of root systems on sycamores than oaks would be my guess on why the sycamores survived. Oaks I know have a lateral root system that are not deep. You cut one of those main lateral roots, and you have weakened that entire side. Add in soaking rains, softening the soil, the winds, and you get trees falling like they did in the picture.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Glad you made out better than we did. They haven't even started cleanup yet. I'm estimating 7 to 10 days before we have power again. Thankfully no damage to my house but many houses had trees crush them and yeah 3 deaths from trees falling on cars

I hope the power comes back for you much sooner than that. I can't imagine not having it for 7 to 10 days, wow. But the main thing is you're ok. Horrible that some houses got crushed and 3 people died. We root for strong t-storms, but of course we don't want to see a storm that's this incredibly severe. 

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12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I hope the power comes back for you much sooner than that. I can't imagine not having it for 7 to 10 days, wow. But the main thing is you're ok. Horrible that some houses got crushed and 3 people died. We root for strong t-storms, but of course we don't want to see a storm that's this incredibly severe. 

I know. Never expected even looking at radar that it would be that bad. Didn't even feel like a typical severe day

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17 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

could not get a more perfect day for the fourth of july comfortable temps very low humidity and a gentle breeze it felt great outside..

I actually sat outside all morning, and occasionally a few times this afternoon.  Unbelievable!

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31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know. Never expected even looking at radar that it would be that bad. Didn't even feel like a typical severe day

Severe storms usually overperform when we have steep lapse rates and such unstable soundings.

IMG_3965.thumb.gif.098df1a3f7609c0d423bbfdc97fa0e76.gif

 

 

 

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Tomorrow will be warm with highs reaching the middle 80s across the New York City area. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +3.57 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.175 today. 

 

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If there was no calendar and every 31-day interval was equally valid, these would be the top 50 warmest "months" for NYC ... just counting the warmest instance in any given year unless in theory two non-overlapping 31 day intervals qualified, 1988 and 2002 were the only examples (otherwise, they do not quite make list, the second instance in 1931 ranks 51st) ... a number of secondary peaks more than halfway through these qualifying spells do not count for ranking separately, there needs to be total separation of the intervals for ranking ... you could rank more if you accepted two sets that don't include the actual peak ... it's pretty similar to the list of warmest calendar months but the averages are generally higher and it's interesting that no annual peak happens to coincide with a calendar month.

I list them by mean maximum to reduce the interference of the growing heat island, mean daily would be skewed more to recent examples. 

 

Rank Year __ Interval (31d) _________ Mean max (F)

 1. 1966 June 20 to July 20 ___________91.97

 2. 1993 July 5 to Aug 4 ______________91.61

 3. 1999 July 3 or 4 to Aug 2 or 3 ____ 90.94

 4. 1955 July 8 to Aug 7 ______________ 90.90

 5. 1944 July 22 to Aug 21 ___________ 90.84

 6. 1980 July 14 to Aug 13 ____________ 90.71

t7. 1988A July 16 to Aug 15 ___________ 90.29

t7. 2010 June 27 to July 27 __________ 90.29 (or July 3 to Aug 2 was also 90.29)

 9. 2005 July 15 to Aug 14 ___________ 89.87

10. 2011 July 4 to Aug 3 _____________ 89.84

11. 1983 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 89.71

12. 1952 June 24 to July 24 _________ 89.35

t13. 1977 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 89.29

t13. 1995 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 89.29

t15. 1876 June 23 to July 23 __________ 89.26

t15. 1991 June 24 to July 24 __________ 89.26

t15. 2006 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________89.26

18. 1949 July 13 to Aug 12 ____________ 89.13 __ a non-overlapping 31d interval June 11 to July 11 was 86.74

19. 1953 June 20 to July 20 __________ 88.90 __ non-overlapping 31d intervals Aug 8 (or 10) to Sep 7 (or 9) 87.00

20. 2002 Jul 20 or 22 to Aug 19 or 21_ 88.87 __ non-overlapping 31d interval June 20 or 21 to July 20 or 21 was 87.10

21. 2022 July 12 to Aug 11 ____________ 88.77  (also 87.19 Aug 2 to Sep 1, partial overlap, secondary peak)

22. 1943 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 88.42

23. 2012 Jun 27 or 28 to Jul 27 or 28_ 88.32

24. 2024 June 18 to July 18 __________ 88.23  (also 88.19 July 4 to Aug 3, partial overlap, secondary peak)

t25. 1979 July 11 to Aug 10_____________88.19

t25. 2015 July 19 to Aug 18____________88.19  (also 87.87 Aug 10 to Sep 9, partial overlap, secondary peak)

27. 1994 June 14 to July 14 ___________ 88.16 (also 87.94 July 5 to Aug 4, partial overlap, secondary peak)

28. 1957 July 4 to Aug 3 ______________ 88.10

29. 2016 July 16 to Aug 15 ____________ 88.06

30. 2013 June 23 to July 23 __________ 87.97

31. 1959 Aug 10 to Sep 9 _____________ 87.87

t32. 1938 July 25 to Aug 24 ___________87.74

t32. 1939 July 24 to Aug 23 __________ 87.74

34. 2020 July 2 to Aug 1 _____________ 87.68

t35. 1901 June 24 to July 24 __________ 87.61

t35. 1981 July 7 to Aug 6 ______________ 87.61

t35. 1987 July 9 to Aug 8 _____________ 87.61

38. 1872 June 18 to July 18 ___________ 87.55

t39. 1936 July 5 to Aug 4 ______________87.52

t39. 1988 B June 12 to July 12 _________87.52

t41. 1954 July 9 to Aug 8 _____________ 87.29

t41. 1970 July 23 to Aug 22 __________ 87.29

t41. 1982 July 6 to Aug 5 _____________ 87.29

44. 1968 July 12 to Aug 11 ___________ 87.23

45. 1930 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 87.19

t46. 1931 July 11 to Aug 10 _____________87.16

t46. 2019 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________ 87.16

t48. 2002 B Jun 20or21 to Jul 20or21 __87.10

t48. 2008 July 8 to Aug 7 _____________ 87.10

50. 1940 July 15 to Aug 14 ____________ 87.06

51. 1931 B Aug 8 to Sep 7 _____________ 87.00

52. 1937 July 10 to Aug 9 _____________ 86.97

t53. 1870. July 11 to Aug 10 ____________86.90

t53. 1934. June 21, 22 to July 21, 22___86.90

t55. 1900 June 25 to July 25 ___________86.84

t55. 1961 Aug 7 to Sep 6 _______________86.84

t55. 1973 Aug 5 to Sep 4 ______________ 86.84

58. (1949) June 11 to July 11 ___________ 86.74

59. 1918 July 15 to Aug 14 _____________ 86.71

t60. 1885 July 6 to Aug 5 ______________ 86.68

t60. 1971 June 16 to July 15 ____________ 86.68

(62. 1887 June 30 to July 30 _________ 86.65)

(63. 1997 June 19 to July 19 ___________ 86.61)

(64. 2001 July 31 to Aug 30 ___________ 86.58)

(65. 1974 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________ 86.55)

(66. 1896 July 15 to Aug 14 ___________ 86.48)

(67. 1932 July 10 to Aug 9 ____________ 86.48)

(68. 1990 July 18 to Aug 17 ___________ 86.42)

(t69. 1911 July 2 to Aug 1 _______________86.39)

(t69. 1917 July 13 or 16 to Aug 12, 15) __ 86.39)

(t69. 1969 Aug 3 to Sep 2 _____________ 86.39)

(t69. 2023 June 29 to July 29 ________ 86.39)

(73. 1963 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 86.35)

(t74. 1878 June 26 to July 26 __________86.32)

(t74. 1908 June 20 to July 20 _________ 86.32)

(76. 1941 July 10 to Aug 9 _____________86.29)

(77. 1972 July 10 to Aug 9 ____________ 86.23)

(78. 1935 July 5 to Aug 4 _____________ 86.19)

(79. 1933 July 6 to Aug 5 _____________ 86.10)

(80. 1921 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________ 86.03)

_________________________

As 1953, 1988, 2002 have two qualifying separate intervals, 63 are ranked for 60 leading years. 

All near misses, some that had well known heat waves, are added in the 86-87 range.

This is basically the top half of the years, the worst three for lack of heat are 1869 (peak 79.29), 1889 (81.61) and 2000 (81.71), 4th was 1871 (81.81).  

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