Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,130
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

 A cold front approaches New England Thursday
afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk.
While we are looking five days out there is already an area
highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe
storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance
has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including
mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35
knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region
with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive
this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.

download.png

  • Like 3
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:
 A cold front approaches New England Thursday
afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk.
While we are looking five days out there is already an area
highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe
storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance
has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including
mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35
knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region
with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive
this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.

download.png

 

IMG_1040.webp

  • Like 1
  • clap 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, kdxken said:

NBM maybe? Just a guess.

And more to come. Starting in July policy will be for the forecast to be populated with the NBM and largely left alone except for the near term. 

But we are wasting human resources generating dewpoint grids on day 7 given the current staffing situation.

  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No wonder the hummers have been going crazy lately. They must have some sense of what’s coming. It’s weird as for the last few weeks or so, the feeders have been kind of quiet after the early surge in May and now they’re back with a vengeance! I think we should take the hint. :sun:

IMG_0501.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is still hitting near 24C 850s next Tue with W-WNW flow. GFS is looking similar…100° threat on both models. The 6/24 records are already vulnerable at most sites.

The GFS lost that goofy summer “polar vortex” too. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

00z GFS with 7 straight days 97-102 for SNE next week

Not happenin, but it’ll be pretty hot some days. Looks like there’s a bit of afternoon overmixing in some of these gfs runs again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be some folks that succumb to the heat in the ACATT crowd. Will become shut ins… invalids, recluse 

ACATT will never be able to get past the iron heat dome. 

  • Haha 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Not happenin, but it’ll be pretty hot some days. Looks like there’s a bit of afternoon overmixing in some of these gfs runs again. 

EPS is historically hot this far out. This is no typical heat signal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...