June 2025 Obs/Disco

[Torch Tiger]

i just took a look at my accuwx maps/temps

lol

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Accuweather should just rebrand to Climoweather 

Meh, that's a lot of money to just use climo as a forecast

[kdxken]

"Lower-than-normal forecast confidence heading into Friday, as guidance struggles with weak disturbances passing through the zonal flow aloft. The first chance for rain comes Friday morning as strong mid-level flow converges over SNE. There is little to no upper-air support, so it may be difficult to see more than just increased cloud cover and perhaps some weak showers. As for the weekend, guidance is in significant disagreement with rain chances as the GFS stretches a surface high into the region from the east, keeping us dry but cool for the weekend. The Euro and Canadian push the surface high further offshore, allowing a weak low-pressure system to exit the southern Great Lakes and move into the region. Examining the cluster analysis of all members from the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles reveals that a wetter solution is favored, with only 14% of the ensemble members predicting a completely dry forecast. 56% of the ensemble members favor at least some light precipitation, while 30% indicate heavier precipitation and a washout."

 

Our luck has to change at some point right?

[dendrite]

53.6° -RA

Everything is sobbing wet again. 0.23” through the tipper.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. Fucking cold.

ROFL...shawl weather?? Lol

[kdxken]

Long range looks wet weekend after next.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

"Lower-than-normal forecast confidence heading into Friday, as guidance struggles with weak disturbances passing through the zonal flow aloft. The first chance for rain comes Friday morning as strong mid-level flow converges over SNE. There is little to no upper-air support, so it may be difficult to see more than just increased cloud cover and perhaps some weak showers. As for the weekend, guidance is in significant disagreement with rain chances as the GFS stretches a surface high into the region from the east, keeping us dry but cool for the weekend. The Euro and Canadian push the surface high further offshore, allowing a weak low-pressure system to exit the southern Great Lakes and move into the region. Examining the cluster analysis of all members from the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles reveals that a wetter solution is favored, with only 14% of the ensemble members predicting a completely dry forecast. 56% of the ensemble members favor at least some light precipitation, while 30% indicate heavier precipitation and a washout."

 

Our luck has to change at some point right?

Gfs is not dry. Not sure what they saw.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

ROFL...shawl weather?? Lol

Actually yeah. Pants and sweat shirt. January weather.

[kdxken]

Not a good start to the summer for businesses. Can't imagine breweries are doing well. 

"Hey ! let's go for a hike and then hit that new brewery!" "Eff that, I'm going to stay in and tug on a handle of whiskey"

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually yeah. Pants and sweat shirt. January weather.

I had shorts and a short sleeve shirt on yesterday...lol...

[Damage In Tolland]

No one wears pants in summer unless at work . Always shorts 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not a good start to the summer for businesses. Can't imagine breweries are doing well. 

"Hey ! let's go for a hike and then hit that new brewery!" "Eff that, I'm going to stay in and tug on a handle of whiskey"

May through October is the money stretch for breweries. That’s when they pay all the debts they accumulated in the winter.  The closures are already happening. They will just accelerate.

of course that doesn’t apply to breweries that are long established or have established, popular restaurants.

 

[SJonesWX]

40 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

ROFL...shawl weather?? Lol

it's 55 and drizzling out. shorts and a t-shirt would be OK unless you are going to be spending any length of time outside. It is downright chilly.

[kdxken]

 

[Chrisrotary12]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one wears pants in summer unless at work . Always shorts 

I’m team always shorts, even in winter unless snowing. But yesterday was shorts, t-shirt, hoodie for the evening walk. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We root for the robots?

https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1932276664341315689?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I’m team always shorts, even in winter unless snowing. But yesterday was shorts, t-shirt, hoodie for the evening walk. 

As long as arms are covered , shorts are perfect for anything above mid 40’s

[Damage In Tolland]

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

"Lower-than-normal forecast confidence heading into Friday, as guidance struggles with weak disturbances passing through the zonal flow aloft. The first chance for rain comes Friday morning as strong mid-level flow converges over SNE. There is little to no upper-air support, so it may be difficult to see more than just increased cloud cover and perhaps some weak showers. As for the weekend, guidance is in significant disagreement with rain chances as the GFS stretches a surface high into the region from the east, keeping us dry but cool for the weekend. The Euro and Canadian push the surface high further offshore, allowing a weak low-pressure system to exit the southern Great Lakes and move into the region. Examining the cluster analysis of all members from the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles reveals that a wetter solution is favored, with only 14% of the ensemble members predicting a completely dry forecast. 56% of the ensemble members favor at least some light precipitation, while 30% indicate heavier precipitation and a washout."

 

Our luck has to change at some point right?

It depends...

There's no time constraint in the repeating fractals of nature.  They are a matter of probability - yes .. it is less likely that a repeating pattern would repeat at longer lengths of time;  considering, permutations capable of effecting change to an ongoing system also increase in likelihood the longer the repeating system exists.  However, "less" is why some people end up wealthy with accesses to lavishness, hot sex with those they actually want to be with, as a life, while others with the exact same aptitude, effort and application ... do not.  

It is possible, however less likely ... that this will not change until time has run out on summer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is not dry. Not sure what they saw.

this is true... I read that and was wondering what version of the operational GFS they are cluing in on when it comes to rain ... heh.

In fact, I thought the GFS was the more rancid of the choices. 

The missive is right about the 'stretching' aspect though - that much the author is spot on.  In fact, the GFS stretches as model-native bias at all times. some times more evident than others, but I have been railing on about this for years frankly. 

It's also true - in principle - that weaker systems in a high speed zonal flow tendency are tricky.

[Typhoon Tip]

There's a high pressure that despite the faster than normal jet structures and power, relative to summer climo, is managing to anchor across Ontario. It's ultimately there because because there's this weird persistence of N-stream mashing the flow S spanning southern Canada, and this is creating a 'standing wave' confluence ... etc...   That's really the problem. The N-stream won't die this year. It's frankly been promoting over active wave spacing in the atmosphere at unusually late climate/seasonality.

Regardless of Euro-esque, or Good For Shit modeled versions for the weekend, they all are very winter like.  I mentioned this yesterday.  I imagine that in December as a icy mix with snow chances, albeit light, but Currier&Ives for the run up to the holidays.   

In the summer?  You get -5 dailies/Baffin Island climate

[weatherwiz]

16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

eastern NY into Berkshire County definitely game on for a few strong thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. May see a marginal risk with 13z update tomorrow. 

Happened one outlook earlier but AIT

 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sucks to be us. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As long as arms are covered , shorts are perfect for anything above mid 40’s

Good morning DIT. For some, why limit it to the 40’s? Stay well, as always ….

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

EPS looked like we finally get into a longer stretch of average to above average summer temps, starting the middle of next week.  Seems reasonable since that is heading into the solstice.  Let's see if that holds though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

EPS looked like we finally get into a longer stretch of average to above average summer temps, starting the middle of next week.  Seems reasonable since that is heading into the solstice.  Let's see if that holds though. 

Yup we mentioned yesterday and the charges occurring. Middle of next week on it is here to stay 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

EPS looked like we finally get into a longer stretch of average to above average summer temps, starting the middle of next week.  Seems reasonable since that is heading into the solstice.  Let's see if that holds though. 

Still some signs troughing wants to sneak into SE Canada. But, the PNA tries to flip negative and that should help build more ridging to the east.

[SJonesWX]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup we mentioned yesterday and the charges occurring. Middle of next week on it is here to stay 

hmmm, where have I heard that before?

On 6/6/2025 at 8:07 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe 90’s but plenty of AN and 80’s next week. ACATT are getting some very false hopes here 

 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As long as arms are covered , shorts are perfect for anything above mid 40’s

Exact opposite here - short sleeves all year when inside and no shorts as we're in the midst of tick-y forest.  Purchased some shorts recently, but that's for all the PT work following my knee replacement surgery on 6/23.

Checked radar about 8:20 to see if putting the recycling down the road to the pickup spot and saw almost nothing.  10 minutes after I'd taken the stuff down, little showers popped up and have continued to do so, with low 50s.  Soggy cardboard for the loss.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning DIT. For some, why limit it to the 40’s? Stay well, as always ….

 

Only problem is it doesn’t snow here anymore.