June 2025 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the heat is cut off Wed into Friday perhaps with Wednesday still possible 90 in CT. By srly July Rickie’s ridge develops again which will put a lid on temps for us but may turn more humid too.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing screams big SNE severe outbreak than dense, pea soup fog and mist to start the day . 

Expected. Clear out after 9-10.

[CoastalWx]

Actually, I already have some breaks in the overcast here.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually, I already have some breaks in the overcast here.

Just got out and enjoyed my favorite weather with a 4 mile run to start the day. Feels awesome out thrrr 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just got out and enjoyed my favorite weather with a 4 mile run to start the day. Feels awesome out thrrr 

Yep we steam. 

[Torch Tiger]

drinking some vodka and crans later, hopefully watching WNE get croaked. Maybe Wiz finds his 62kt gust. Either way great HHH work holiday at the beach.

[dendrite]

Min 64.9°

Not too bad out…a little sticky. Feels like summah.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Man next week is trending extremely hot again.. high end heat and humid / some extreme risks for heat showing up next Tuesday on the NWS heat risk page 

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

[Modfan2]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the heat is cut off Wed into Friday perhaps with Wednesday still possible 90 in CT. By srly July Rickie’s ridge develops again which will put a lid on temps for us but may turn more humid too.  

So 2-3 days?

[kdxken]

48 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

drinking some vodka and crans later, hopefully watching WNE get croaked. Maybe Wiz finds his 62kt gust. Either way great HHH work holiday at the beach.

Check the tide charts. 

 

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Man next week is trending extremely hot again.. high end heat and humid / some extreme risks for heat showing up next Tuesday on the NWS heat risk page 

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

I thought the otherwise especially Wednesday through Friday

[Chrisrotary12]

As expected previously, timing looks off for today. 

[Hoth]

Oh look, another overcast morning with dense fog. 

[CoastalWx]

Partly sunny and 72 right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don’t ever recall a severe event when the region was enveloped in dense fog like this. This needs to scour soon 

[Prismshine Productions]

71.4/70.5/70..9 to start the day... muggy

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought the otherwise especially Wednesday through Friday

Monday Tuesday are back to extreme widespread temps around 100 with dews in the 70s.. Wednesday Thursday stays hot down here for now … 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Monday Tuesday are back to extreme .. Wednesday Thursday stays hot down here for now … 

Monday and Tuesday I always thought looked hot?  Monday will be dependent on MCS early Sunday. If it’s further west it may delay warmth returning. But euro right now favors hot. W-F look more tepid for now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Monday and Tuesday I always thought looked hot?  Monday will be dependent on MCS early Sunday. If it’s further west it may delay warmth returning. But euro right now favors hot. W-F look more tepid for now. 

Ya just ticking back up.. guidance started backing off a bit maybe 5%.. looks like a deal where southern CT may torch with wind direction like you were saying earlier in the week 

[SJonesWX]

68/68 this AM. this weather is disgusting

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya just ticking back up.. guidance started backing off a bit maybe 5%.. looks like a deal where southern CT may torch with wind direction like you were saying earlier in the week 

Yeah and by tepid maybe 80s here and 88-94 inland or something like that. Still warm. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually, I already have some breaks in the overcast here.

Visible sats show Greenwich, CT, on west already burnt off.  This fog is toast.

[Chrisrotary12]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t ever recall a severe event when the region was enveloped in dense fog like this. This needs to scour soon 

Didn’t 1953 start out overcast and dense fog then the warm front pushed through.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

68/68 this AM. this weather is disgusting

Love It. Sun out bums out. Just twerk em high in the air. To the windoooowwwwww to the waaaallllll…

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Didn’t 1953 start out overcast and dense fog then the warm front pushed through.

You were alive. You tell us !

[jbenedet]

Not a good meso setup for the overcast/fog to stick; even in the most prone areas along the coast. 
 

And then considering the near max ISR ; should disappear in all areas by 10

[weatherwiz]

mlvl lapse rates are much worse than modeled. Wonder if the air got totally overturned from the convection yesterday across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Have to see what some of the 12z soundings look like.

[weatherwiz]

The fog is going to erode rather quickly, except maybe valleys

[Typhoon Tip]

On the contrary...  it's typical to dawn murky high dps with a patchwork of fog and low strata on severe days. This is in fact expected behavior. 

There are sunny/skylights stationary E of the topography; this is keyed into high DP air mingling with shallow nocturnal inversion resulting basically in very low level 'steam'.  It's not even 8 am and no sooner the sun tips over treetops and there's rapid evap ongoing.   Not just typical, it's physically obvious why this is the case, too.

Our biggest limitation on the day most likely will be timing.  This may evolve more across central NY/PA along that axis, with a few descrete/dangerous cells then organizing into linear segments. The better instability will be there extending down into the M/A.  There's not a lot of CIN in these areas.   Oriographic assisted cu features will probably take off without restraint and quickly.   This does not include areas E of Albany initially.  The whole synopsis doesn't bring the front through here until 2+am overnight so that E NE may not be in the party at all.  May get some activity into western zones as the typical accelerating outflows organize/pool and propagates down wind and triggers/cyclic development. 

There may also be a prefrontal trough ... there's so little inhibition in this whole set up, that could trigger and rob down in the eastern PA/PHL/NJ area.

SPC's got it pretty well covered. 

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

On the contrary...  it's typical to dawn murky high dps with a patchwork of fog and low strata on severe days. This is in fact expected behavior. 

There are sunny/skylights stationary E of the topography, and hi res vis proves my point that this is shallow because it's not even 8 am and rapid evap's ongoing.   Not just typical, it's physically obvious why this is the case, too.

Our biggest limitation on the day most likely will be timing.  This may evolve more across central NY/PA along that axis, with a few descrete/dangerous cells then organizing into linear segments. The better instability will be there extending down into the M/A.  There's not a lot of CIN in these areas.   Oriographic assisted cu features will probably take off without restraint and quickly.   This does not include areas E of Albany initially.  The whole synopsis doesn't bring the front through here until 2+am overnight so that E NE may not be in the party at all.  May get some activity into western zones as the typical accelerating outflows organize/pool and propagates down wind and triggers/cyclic development. 

There may also be a prefrontal trough ... there's so little inhibition in this whole set up, that could trigger and rob down in the eastern PA/PHL/NJ area.

SPC's got it pretty well covered. 

 

Not saying this is a positive or negative for today, however, sometimes I think there is too much focus on the timing of the actual cold front for our region. 9 times out of 10, the focus for our convection is a pre-frontal trough and never with the actual cold front. In the rare setups where we get moderate-to-extreme instability, that is where we can get a second round of convection with the cold front but when it comes to forcing/dynamics its usually s/w track and timing and pre-frontal trough. Now...more often than not the better dynamics are typically tied in close proximity to the cold front. Pre-frontal troughs can be a huge boost for us but they also kill alot of our opportunities.