June 2025 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

Could be sneaky strong winds in VT into NH and maybe nrn MA 12zish Friday.

[butterfish55]

Apparently 2 miles west of you it's 50 and  rained since Memorial Day.

SMH

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Apparently 2 miles west of you it's 50 and  rained since Memorial Day.

It’s been cloudy all week, does it really matter if it’s 65 or 75?

[Typhoon Tip]

12z operationals appeared to inch back hotter at least in the Mon-Tue aspect... Just going by the 500 mb cinemas.

altho I did see the GGEM;  waits until Thursday mid day to BD and it's not a very strong signal either.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hottest day of the summer on Tuesday?

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually... the GFS/Euro offer opportunities to roll bigger heat right back in -

I think these 12z runs above all else underscore the need to NOT take operational runs very seriously outside of 6 days.   This whole heat thing begins On Monday... but the end half of it is way the hell out there in that region of changeability -

fwiw, monster derecho on the Euro through upstate NY and NNE mid weekend.  This may need to be watched imho.  If it's there, it's just as liable to turn right and end up here in verification.    *if* it's there.   The model's even got a convective lamphoony low up there with that sucker

[Typhoon Tip]

All the models have the MCS now... interesting.  Euro most aggressive

 

[powderfreak]

85/68 up here at MVL.

What a summer day today.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All the models have the MCS now... interesting.  Euro most aggressive

 

My initial wondering/thinking is whether the models are too far northeast with the MCS. Verbatim I am wondering if this would track to our southwest as that is where the instability gradient is most defined. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

My initial wondering/thinking is whether the models are too far northeast with the MCS. Verbatim I am wondering if this would track to our southwest as that is where the instability gradient is most defined. 

Well ... what do  you mean by that - the models are tracking where they see it.  How do we know where that axis will be at this time.

In principle, that's true.  They'll pac-man along the elevated thermodynamic gradient.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

85/68 up here at MVL.

What a summer day today.

you actually beat us ... Why you sumna bish ...

Yeah, judging by this cut out of WPC's "always" trustworthy never odd looking computer generated frontal tapestry ... ( haha) that we're getting the old end-around warm frontal passage - it's likely through you guys up there and we're getting quasi nut pinched down here.

 

[Lava Rock]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be sneaky strong winds in VT into NH and maybe nrn MA 12zish Friday.

there's goes our boating day. 

[CoastalWx]

77/72 with BINOVC. AWT.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... what do  you mean by that - the models are tracking where they see it.  How do we know where that axis will be at this time.

In principle, that's true.  They'll pac-man along the elevated thermodynamic gradient.

Don't models tend to poorly handle MCS propagation, especially in these regimes? Models in general though seem to struggle with how convection behaves when you have sharp instability gradients. In real time the convection will follow the instability axis but models tend to place a greater emphasis on other variables. 

Anyways look at the GFS and where it tracks the MCS then look at MUCAPE...if we were to fast forward to verification time my bet would be the MCS making a sharp turn across southwestern NY into PA. 

[Typhoon Tip]

if you look at this loop, literally over just the last 1/2 hour or so, all of NE PA/E NY, W MA and W CT just went more sun than clouds. 

My guess is the warm front is mixing out.   It's 76/70 here up from 73/66 and hour ago, and though we're in the clouds its noticeably jumped.

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats AllwetandallcoldATT. The blight on the tomato plants is running rampant. Just pulled a bunch of tomato limbs off with it . 
 

And oh by the way the mosquitoes today .. unbearable 

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been cloudy all week, does it really matter if it’s 65 or 75?

Monday was almost totally clear and 80. 

[dendrite]

73/70 OVC with shower approaching

We swamp

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats AllwetandallcoldATT. The blight on the tomato plants is running rampant. Just pulled a tomato of limbs off with it . 
 

And oh by the way the mosquitoes today .. unbearable 

Yeah. The mosquitoes have sucked today. No pun intended.  Tried to do some work on the pool.  

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't models tend to poorly handle MCS propagation, especially in these regimes? Models in general though seem to struggle with how convection behaves when you have sharp instability gradients. In real time the convection will follow the instability axis but models tend to place a greater emphasis on other variables. 

Anyways look at the GFS and where it tracks the MCS then look at MUCAPE...if we were to fast forward to verification time my bet would be the MCS making a sharp turn across southwestern NY into PA. 

Well ... ha, they'll miss whether the damn things 'll form.   

They tend to turn right of the environmental steering, because they are in fact drawn toward the better CAPE, and that's likelier S, where the cold pooling off the ongoing convection has organized into a meso or meso-beta scaled convectively induced cold front.  This lifts the environment, and the static stable layer over the top is forced to ascend to where it is no longer static, and that kicks off the redevelopment cycles there ..hence the propagation.  

The model physics handle that in principle.  The GFS is in fact turning right ... the Euro and GGEM are driving it E through Maine.  At this range, either is possible.  The amount of turning right probably has some other factorization.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

73/70 OVC with shower approaching

We swamp

Still no installs huh ?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still no installs huh ?

Chicken feathers stuck to legs.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still no installs huh ?

Not yet. I’m comfortable. But the MIL is here so it may be going in.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not yet. I’m comfortable. But the MIL is here so it may be going in.

Sent from down below?

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not yet. I’m comfortable. But the MIL is here so it may be going in.

It’s gonna be 96/75 there tomorrow. Dude, you’re nuts 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s gonna be 96/75 there tomorrow. Dude, you’re nuts 

lol it probably won’t even hit 90° here.

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... ha, they'll miss whether the damn things 'll form.   

They tend to turn right of the environmental steering, because they are in fact drawn toward the better CAPE, and that's likelier S, where the cold pooling off the ongoing convection has organized into a meso or meso-beta scaled convectively induced cold front.  This lifts the environment, and the static stable layer over the top is forced to ascend to where it is no longer static, and that kicks off the redevelopment cycles there ..hence the propagation.  

The model physics handle that in principle.  The GFS is in fact turning right ... the Euro and GGEM are driving it E through Maine.  At this range, either is possible.  The amount of turning right probably has some other factorization.

 

Hopefully we get a solid MCS...been quite some time since we had a solid legit MCS roll through

[Chrisrotary12]

This humidity sucks. If it’s going to be dewy at least let it be warm so it’s not sticky. 

[SJonesWX]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats AllwetandallcoldATT. The blight on the tomato plants is running rampant. Just pulled a tomato of limbs off with it . 
 

And oh by the way the mosquitoes today .. unbearable 

congrats to you on the high dews you have been begging for!!

[Torch Tiger]

Timing sucks for any MCS Saturday night, at least if you take a blend of the models.  NNE could do well though