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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With that look it seems like most of New England stays mainly dry with big rains SW of NYC

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times.

It matters..  the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am.   The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here"  ...

GFS is better on Sunday ...   The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off.  

Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain.  Temps held to 70.  

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times.

It matters..  the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am.   The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here"  ...

GFS is better on Sunday ...   The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off.  

Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain.  Temps held to 70.  

That’s Scooters house except he’s the one turning furniture over 

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Go wonder ...the operational Euro canceled the heat look.

I don't know it's hard to get a bead on that D6 to 13 range.   There's a low amplitude -PNA which seems to be in spatial conflict/destructive interference with this unrelenting non-linearity of +PNAP ...  

Quick comment on that...  uuusually, the  Pacific North American index is tightly correlated to the Perennial North America Pattern - but since last November this has not been the case...  Really rather remarkable, the longevity of that uncoupled statistic.   It gave as a colder winter than recent years, while the neg interference of it all ...stopped big stormy snows.   Now we're seeing the summer afflicted with fast moving fronts and heat suppression tendencies ( so far..). 

Anyway, the telecons have a sustaining -PNA with a sustaining, albeit modest, +NAO... with cyclic EPO dumps ... heat can certainly manifest over eastern mid latitudes of the continent given that teleconnector spread.   The question is, will it?    You can go by the verifications - they're going to be above normal if not by whole degrees ... by decimals.  That's not related to this... something else

The EPS still has at least a flat ridge cutting E in its ensemble mean D7 to 12 ...  

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

A lot of east winds on the weekend especially in southern sections. Similar weather to last Sunday, it appears. Winners north/east, losers south.
 

I’ll take the San Francisco vibe up here on the coast. Love it. 

foggy with lots of homeless people in tents on the sidewalks?

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Retired in December and it's great. Entered the water today at Winnisquam for the first time (other than put the dock in on Memorial Day which was miserable) and it was actually quite - surprisingly - comfortable.

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