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June 2025 Obs/Disco

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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alex
alex

Wonder how my plants will take the frost this morning…  

Zeppy
Zeppy

49.8 with an 8:17 sunset 

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

See how much happier everyone is posting heat/humidity obs? This is our happy place 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

yesterday's catching up to us from the past -  ... kinda reminds me of the QM stuff about time being in both directions.  Like reality explodes out of QM, as an emergence, so ... that's what makes the observation actually possible.   Man, that's weird -

anyway, an hour ago i cited that we were ahead of yesterday per hour::minute with temperature recovery, but had only recovered 10 - yesterday's delta per was 16... this difference was that initially, today had a 6 or so deg head start, so at the time we were ahead of yesterday. however now, we are the same as yesterday per hour:minute.   So today's smoke retarded rising at a slower rate is allowing yesterday to overtake us, winning the race from the past. 

... think i need to dump this coffee... 

so for the time being, and all other factors being equal, that leaves smoke blunting as a high confidence limiting factor.   i don't think the models actually factored that in.  the NAM/met machine numbers are 87-89-ish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc ... we may still make that because the complexity of this crushingly nerdy expose is then enhanced further by the fact that machine numbers tend to be too cool on this side of the solar max anyway... so the smoke blunting give the machine numbers at an unfair competitive advantage.  :blink:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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damn... Saturday's still up in the air.   06z GFS kind of collapsed out of nowhere ... removing it's St Lawr. Seaway low transit.  That's more like the GGEM's idea all along.   Yet, it's not inundating with steady rain, like the GGEM, which showed less nor'easter low, but still fudge packs a rain band through everywhere... 

I'm wondering if even at this short lead ... the weak flow is causing a lot of uncertainty.   The 00z Euro took a step toward more low up there, which is more of a structured warm sector thru SNE...  

it seems regardless, PF up there is losing Saturday to rain...  check.  We need to see that happen in order for the rest of us to rejoice and bathe with 70 hot virgins while he's loading the coal into the bath house steam furnace for a gay roman day spa...  If we can get that symbolically arranged, all is right in the cosmos. 

j/k   .. it may just be a frontalysis miasma day.  sultry dps with light sky but little real blue... in between dark patches, with thunder audible by 11:30 off in the distance type of day. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Now we're ahead of yesterday...  77       Smoke appears to be doing the typical mid-day weakening.  

I'm wondering what the cause is for that.  I've observed many times, these smoke bands in otherwise clear air/non-cloud contaminated skies do seem to 'thin', albeit subtly, as the mid days near.   Perhaps kinetic heating of the smoke particulates, when there is higher solar insolation, then increases dispersion mechanics.. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Friday definitely looking a bit more intriguing. Shear is very weak so this isn't a big severe setup but could be good for some local microbursts and lots of lightning. 

Assuming the 12z GFS is correct. A big assumption right now - but that has a great look for strong/severe Sunday afternoon.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Assuming the 12z GFS is correct. A big assumption right now - but that has a great look for strong/severe Sunday afternoon.

I'm really hoping to get something out of this...even if non-severe. I am off this week and next week for my friend and I's annual get together for local chasing. One of these years we'll do out west but my energy levels are fading and I'm so tired of driving so who knows :lol: 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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exc

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Friday definitely looking a bit more intriguing. Shear is very weak so this isn't a big severe setup but could be good for some local microbursts and lots of lightning. 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see what Wizzy is seeing on the NAM. There is a psuedo EML tickling S coast and decent CAPE near and SoP. Despite limited shear, forcing looks to be along wavering from near pike. So yeah...a few storms could be interesting.

Except that the NAM's grid indicates a convective induced frontal sag through the region with under cutting N-NE cooled air... 

It's all probably just NAM fantasy at this range, but if suppose it had legs ... it's pretty clear in the FOUS that day's SB CAPE is shit smeared.  

It's also now losing the low transit through NNE so it's going after Saturday too.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see what Wizzy is seeing on the NAM. There is a psuedo EML tickling S coast and decent CAPE near and SoP. Despite limited shear, forcing looks to be along wavering from near pike. So yeah...a few storms could be interesting.

Could be those pulse type with lots of CGs and probably even some of those nasty +CGs. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm really hoping to get something out of this...even if non-severe. I am off this week and next week for my friend and I's annual get together for local chasing. One of these years we'll do out west but my energy levels are fading and I'm so tired of driving so who knows :lol: 

Lock in  CEF/Holyoke flood.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

exc

 

Except that the NAM's grid indicates a convective induced frontal sag through the region with under cutting N-NE cooled air... 

It's all probably just NAM fantasy at this range, but if suppose it had legs ... it's pretty clear in the FOUS that day's SB CAPE is shit smeared.  

It's also now losing the low transit through NNE so it's going after Saturday too.  

For Friday? Yeah certainly could be more CT/RI focused. But there is decent MU CAPE to the north..so I could see it being a little elevated which means maybe a bit more north than the srfc front would argue. But, not worth being picky....just discussing. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Had a nasty bolt from the blue last year under clear skies, but caught a house on fire down the street. Storm was probably 5-6 miles north. That scared the shit out of me. 

That stuff makes me real nervous. I get real paranoid when being outside when thunderstorms start getting within a certain distance. That is one thing I think that would freak me out most about chasing in the Plains...at least here there is a good chance there are taller objects around you, but out there you are the tallest object :lol: 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For Friday? Yeah certainly could be more CT/RI focused. But there is decent MU CAPE to the north..so I could see it being a little elevated which means maybe a bit more north than the srfc front would argue. But, not worth being picky....just discussing. 

mm kinda (personally) don't wanna see that nam set up.   If we lift mu caped air over a boundary ... regardless of kind, it fuzzes out into a putrid warm rain with embedded orange flickers and distant thunder

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm kinda (personally) don't wanna see that nam set up.   If we lift mu caped air over a boundary ... regardless of kind, it fuzzes out into a putrid warm rain with embedded orange flickers and distant thunder

LOL, I know that is true. Although we had an event in late May 2004 (at least locally) under sunny skies and light NE flow with some great aftn SVR. Mostly hail, but I was shocked.

But I get it...typically does happen. GFS has the boundary a bit more to the north, but the GFS won't resolve the NNE leakage too.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

All this MCS activity and convection along the front is causing some major model chaos. Part of the issue too is the degree of convection is so extensive that this will cause some big wiggles in the placement of the boundary throughout the day today and tomorrow. So it may seem at times the front is farther south and east that modeled, but as convection wanes a bit in the overnight the front position corrects back northwest a bit. Makes it very challenging on what to expect here in terms of frontal timing and placement. 

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