Winter 2025-26

[Daniel Boone]

32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

2017 was terrible for me, but the other analogs listed here weren't the worst.

 

 

Same here.

[psuhoffman]

12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

2017 was terrible for me, but the other analogs listed here weren't the worst.

 

 

The "flavor" of 2017-18 was probably about as good as we could hope for this winter, the Baltimore area was the local screw zone snow minimum in general but it featured two legitimate cold/snowy periods and even with both failing to fully reach potation around here even the minimum areas got close to a median snowfall that winter.  If we repeated that general pattern with truly cold period from mid December to mid January and then crazy blocking the whole month of March...plus there were a couple lead/trailing wave opportunities in February and one produced a minor snowfall... so even the in between period wasn't a total hopeless period... considering there are some total snowless duds in the analog set I would sign up for a repeat of that winter and say please and thank you.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The "flavor" of 2017-18 was probably about as good as we could hope for this winter, the Baltimore area was the local screw zone snow minimum in general but it featured two legitimate cold/snowy periods and even with both failing to fully reach potation around here even the minimum areas got close to a median snowfall that winter.  If we repeated that general pattern with truly cold period from mid December to mid January and then crazy blocking the whole month of March...plus there were a couple lead/trailing wave opportunities in February and one produced a minor snowfall... so even the in between period wasn't a total hopeless period... considering there are some total snowless duds in the analog set I would sign up for a repeat of that winter and say please and thank you.  

I got 7 inches on the 2nd day of spring.

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The "flavor" of 2017-18 was probably about as good as we could hope for this winter, the Baltimore area was the local screw zone snow minimum in general but it featured two legitimate cold/snowy periods and even with both failing to fully reach potation around here even the minimum areas got close to a median snowfall that winter.  If we repeated that general pattern with truly cold period from mid December to mid January and then crazy blocking the whole month of March...plus there were a couple lead/trailing wave opportunities in February and one produced a minor snowfall... so even the in between period wasn't a total hopeless period... considering there are some total snowless duds in the analog set I would sign up for a repeat of that winter and say please and thank you.  

I think the OP was talking 2016-2017, wasn't he?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I think the OP was talking 2016-2017, wasn't he?

I think the analog years were for the December’s which would have made that the 2017-18 winter 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I think the OP was talking 2016-2017, wasn't he?

2016-2018 were back to back years of terrible IMBY. But 2017-2018 was the worst of the two. As @psuhoffman said, 2017-2018 had bad dice rolls on game day. So I'd take that pattern again and chance it.

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the analog years were for the December’s which would have made that the 2017-18 winter 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

2016-2018 were back to back years of terrible IMBY. But 2017-2018 was the worst of the two. As @psuhoffman said, 2017-2018 had bad dice rolls on game day. So I'd take that pattern again and chance it.

 

There were 3 dominant patterns that winter. The first 1/3 of the snow season was cold but typical Nina on that without a strong STJ and not a lot of Atlantic help big snow was hard to come by. The coast got clipped by an offshore bomb and we got a couple minor events back here.  It could have been better though. I doubt much worse. 

the Mid Jan to late Feb pattern was bad. But it wasn’t as bad as we can get in a Nina. The poleward pac ridge extending into the AO domain provided some opportunities. Duel waves can work when cold presses. We had 2 legit threats. One fell apart and the other under produced. I got 3” from the one wave.  But it could have been better if it was more organized or timed better. But it wasn’t a total shutout type pattern. More typical Nina bad. 

then of course March was unreal. We just missed 2 storms before the March 20 one hit.  Then we missed another legit window in early April. Yea I know April but one wave gave southern PA 8” (I had about 2 here) and it’s not like those were areas that have a significantly better April snow climo the wave just went 50 miles north. Then the next wave got suppressed!  We actually would have snowed had it now been squashed!   

Overall if we had those same 3 patterns repeat I’d put a 75% probability we get more snow than we did in 2018. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

then of course March was unreal. We just missed 2 storms before the March 20 one hit.  Then we missed another legit window in early April. Yea I know April but one wave gave southern PA 8” (I had about 2 here) and it’s not like those were areas that have a significantly better April snow climo the wave just went 50 miles north. Then the next wave got suppressed!  We actually would have snowed had it now been squashed!   

 

Man I remember that April storm. I was watching weather underground and saw the extended snow totals with us in the 2ft pink zone. What actually happened to cause it to miss? 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch. 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch. 

Agreed. Thought I wouldn't kick a 1" - 3" car topper on December 5th out of bed.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch. 

I agree to a point...but there have been several winters where my best snowstorm happened before December 15 and so I will take what I can get...but you're right when we time up great patterns outside mid winter...that's not good for maximizing potential...but since we don't have any control over that I'll just take whatever comes.  

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Man I remember that April storm. I was watching weather underground and saw the extended snow totals with us in the 2ft pink zone. What actually happened to cause it to miss? 

If my memory serves, and if you are talking about that same early April storm I am... it was a problem with the energy trade off and cold air press related to the wave in front.  From 5 days out that lead wave was weaker and supposed to be a small snow threat for Maryland.  At one point I was even on the northern edge of a 2-4" snowfall projection from that little west to east boundary wave.  But as that lead wave trended more amplified it pushed it north...but also had the corresponding effect of suppressing the wave behind it.  Less energy left over, but more importantly an even greater cold air press, which crazy to say for April, was not what we needed.  In the end the lead wave amplified too much and squashed the wave behind it south of us.  

I remember having this discussion with people that week...they were confused how a wave could be suppressed when temperatures weren't actually THAT cold and it was April.  But suppression is more about the flow than the temperatures.  And having high temps in the upper 40s when its sunny in April actually is VERY COLD...and indicates how dry and suppressive the flow is.  Plus...had it been precipitating it would have been plenty cold enough to snow.  

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch. 

Understood but...

The most consistent winter feature in our ---PDO period has been the Xmas torch.  The second half of December has been a horror show other than a few notable dry cold periods (including 2017)  Of the two "flavors" failure that have dominated recently (SER and Pac Puke), the problem in late December seems to be more Pac Puke.  Like clockwork I know somewhere between Dec 5 - 10 a big AK vortex is going to show up on the extended and march toward verification..

Second, a good Nov/early December might not help us, but a bad Nov/early December can surely hurt us.  I believe it was 2020-2021 where we had the first extended period of -NAO in a decade and we were all excited, but the preceding November was a +++++++AO cluster and all of NA had no cold air, so the -NAO just blocked in mild a

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Understood but...

The most consistent winter feature in our ---PDO period has been the Xmas torch.  The second half of December has been a horror show other than a few notable dry cold periods (including 2017)  Of the two "flavors" failure that have dominated recently (SER and Pac Puke), the problem in late December seems to be more Pac Puke.  Like clockwork I know somewhere between Dec 5 - 10 a big AK vortex is going to show up on the extended and march toward verification..

Second, a good Nov/early December might not help us, but a bad Nov/early December can surely hurt us.  I believe it was 2020-2021 where we had the first extended period of -NAO in a decade and we were all excited, but the preceding November was a +++++++AO cluster and all of NA had no cold air, so the -NAO just blocked in mild a

The torch period in the 20-31 December period is pretty wildly consistent for like 15 years+.  Even the few times we've had a chilly Xmas, we've had a really warm day or two the following or preceding week.  

But yes, I'll take any snow I can get.  But some perfect track frontal wave on December 3 is more likely 2" of slop for me, 8" for PSU, and rain for DC whereas 2 weeks later it could be all snow for nearly everyone except DCA.  

[WxUSAF]

 

[Weather Will]

Detailed write up by DT.  Like the preliminary forecast for severe winter weather conditions.

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2025/10/winter2526A.pdf

[bncho]

I've seen lots of mentions about the TNH, and I'm not really familiar with that. Can somebody explain how it works, and how it will affect us for winter (e.g. -TNH vs +TNH)?