Winter 2025-26

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wonder what the conditions would have to be where one can reliability say that 2003/2010/2016 will never happen again even if you live in Boston and if you want that level of snow again you’ll have to move north AND up in elevation.

you'll probably be dead by then

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

you'll probably be dead by then

I'd say 200-300 years. But who knows. Mother nature will probably throw a curve ball and we'll have ice age lol

[Ephesians2]

I could see it being a -EPO / -PNA / southeast ridge kind of winter with a few brief but relatively intense cold shots but overall warmer than last year. I've heard that the North Atlantic anomalies signal a +NAO, but if we get some transient blocking in January or even March, we could luck into something. 2021-22 was mostly like that except for Jan and we had chances. I don't even think there was much blocking that year. If we had had Dec 2022 later on, it also could have produced. Something like 2017-2018 or last year is probably the best case scenario.

(I'm using 1981-2010 anomalies in this image on purpose. It's just so hard to get a legitimately cold winter now. Even this September is likely going to end up above normal here.)

[stormy]

On 9/15/2025 at 6:51 AM, stormy said:

Sometimes fall patterns can be harbingers for the coming winter.

1977 is an excellent example.

Low pressure over eastern NC. tomorrow with chilly high pressure wedging down from New England.......................  Can this become a habit as we slide into winter????

Again, low pressure to the south over NC, with high pressure to the north over eastern NY.

Cool with .73" rain. Could be a snow threat in January..........

[Jebman]

On 9/12/2025 at 8:53 AM, katabatic said:

That was a pretty good storm out in the Garrett County area as well. I ended up with exactly a foot.

I remember man you absolutely slayed it when you paid a visit to the high country in the West and got to jebwalk in 11 feet of fresh snow up there!

I was so damn jealous it wasn't even funny. Then and now.

[mitchnick]

[frd]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That must be mostly Siberia I would think. But, still good. 

[clskinsfan]

How we looking?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

How we looking?

The wrong part of the pacific is warm

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

How we looking?

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Is that before or after the mid January heat wave?

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

How we looking?

It's a pending La Nina, so. . .

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a pending La Nina, so. . .

Weak Nina is not the end of the world. Although I confess I have looked at nothing so far.

[JenkinsJinkies]

39 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Weak Nina is not the end of the world. Although I confess I have looked at nothing so far.

16-17 was a weak Niña. 19-20 was neutral but given the region temps it was a “weak weak Niña” of sorts

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

How we looking?

Don't let that weak Nina get to you. Mid Atlantic will still have plenty of snow and frigid Vodka-Cold weather. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

16-17 was a weak Niña. 19-20 was neutral but given the region temps it was a “weak weak Niña” of sorts

19-20 had a DJF ONI of +0.5c. Our last Weak Nina was 22-23 (-0.7 ONI), and arguably last Winter because the RONI was close to -1.0c. 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, Cansips updated October forecast for D-F looks a lot like last month's of around normal to slightly above as you head south.

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

H5

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

 

[FPizz]

On 9/27/2025 at 6:29 PM, psuhoffman said:

I didn't see someone ask for a selfie?  Just kidding   

[Ji]

Chat GPT weenie definitions

Mild Weenie (Category 1)

Checks models every 6 hours like it’s the stock market.

Tells people at Thanksgiving dinner, “The Euro is hinting at something BIG in 13 days.”

Owns 3 rulers, specifically “snow rulers.”

Moderate Weenie (Category 2-3)

Saves screenshots of every snowy model run… in June.

Posts, “Pattern is loading” 40 times a week.

Legit gets depressed when a nor’easter tracks 30 miles too far east, ruining their “30-inch jackpot zone.”

Calls 3 inches of snow a “major event.” Bro, that’s a dusting. That’s just dandruff from the clouds.

Severe Weenie (Category 4)

Uses the phrase “torch” to describe a 52° day in January.

Says “big dogs only” like they’re auditioning for Animal Planet.

Will unironically say, “The GFS is trolling us.” Bro… it’s not trolling. It’s just bad.

When it doesn’t snow, they’ll say, “But did you see the upper air pattern tho? Classic look.” Like bro, nobody cares about your 500mb vorticity chart—my driveway is still dry.

☢️ Super-Weenie (Category 5 / Nuclear)

Refreshes model runs more than they check texts from their mom.

Posts, “Winter is coming” in AUGUST.

Watches a single flake fall from the sky and immediately yells, “IT’S VERIFYING!!”

Buys milk and bread two weeks in advance because the CFS showed a storm. The CFS, bro. That’s basically astrology for weather nerds.

Gets so desperate in snow droughts they start measuring sleet, frost, and even freezer frost as “official totals.”

Bro, the ultimate weather weenie isn’t even human anymore—they’ve fused with the GFS model and now speak in spaghetti plot.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/1/2025 at 5:55 AM, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Cansips updated October forecast for D-F looks a lot like last month's of around normal to slightly above as you head south.

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

H5

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

That's not the end of the world.

[Terpeast]

Best case? 24-25

Worst case? 22-23

Probably something in between. 

[rclab]

On 9/27/2025 at 6:29 PM, psuhoffman said:

Finally! ……………… a photo of the PAC Jet. As always  ……