May 2025

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sunny and cool for most of next week is going to be a fun experience.

 

Showers are possible late next week, along with cool readings.

[steve392]

So who was the winner with all the rainfall?  I need a new rain guage. 

[Rjay]

Day 3

 

[Stormlover74]

AM storms Saturday it looks like

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Serial derecho heading into western New York now. Started yesterday in Wisconsin and crossed multiple Great Lakes. These monsters often create their own atmospheric conditions and can last much longer then modeled. Not saying it makes it here, but something to watch. 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully with your projected 3C of warming, JFK and EWR will see 100 degree temps a few times every summer even with onshore flow.

Do you think a time will come when we could hit 100 degrees even on a southerly wind?

 

The wild card will be what happens to rainfall to our west. Some of long range models shift the Western Drought into the Plains in the coming years and decades. This could potentially alter the more onshore flow we have been experiencing over the last decade. So in that case we would regularly see 10 or more days reaching 100° over NJ and 5+ on Long Island. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting to our West. This is highly speculative since the current pattern we are experiencing has been different from that scenario. No matter how much the climate warms, we aren’t going to see many 100° days with onshore flow dominating.

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wild card will be what happens to rainfall to our west. Some of long range models shift the Western Drought into the Plains in the coming years and decades. This could potentially alter the more onshore flow we have been experiencing over the last decade. So in that case we would regularly see 10 or more days reaching 100° over NJ and 5+ on Long Island. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting to our West. This is highly speculative since the current pattern we are experiencing has been different from that scenario. 

Do these models show why the drought would shift to the plains? Like what atmospheric changes are shown that shift the drought east? Basically why would a warming world do that is what I'm asking. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Do these models show why the drought would shift to the plains? Like what atmospheric changes are shown that shift the drought east? Basically why would a warming world do that is what I'm asking. 

Maybe if this rampaging Pacific Jet is a permanent thing now the West would be wet and Plains would start to dry out. But who knows. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Do these models show why the drought would shift to the plains? Like what atmospheric changes are shown that shift the drought east? Basically why would a warming world do that is what I'm asking. 

Some of the models show the severe drought shifting eastward into the Plains from the 2030s into the 2050s. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting for us to get westerly winds from the Plains.

I suppose a compromise could be possible with both ridges linking up and alternating westerly and southerly flow. But this hasn’t been the case in the last decade with more of a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and inshore flow.

Notice how these days the common summer pattern has been a ridge east of New England and over the West. But from 2010 to 2013 when we had all the 100° heat and westerly flow there was a ridge in the Plains. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 64 low level clouds and fog.  Some pokes of sun and low 70s could trigger some storms this pm and evening.  Saturday the warmest of the next 10, and with enough sun and break between the front 90 degree could be approached in the warmer spots otherwise low - mid 80sn stoems by the late afternoon/evening - pending timing of the front.  Sunday - Tuesday nicest - dry stretch with near normal. 

 By Wed clouds and showers are back in the picture and with a stiff E/ENE flow Thursday looks quite ugly and cool.  Brunt of the rain between Wed - Fri then could be right on Memorial Day.  Trough stingy in the east right through the end of the month. 

Heat building in the rockies looks to start eastward push early next month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1951)
NYC: 90 (1951)
LGA: 90 (1951)
JFK: 83 (1993)

 

Lows:

EWR: 40 (2016)
NYC: 42 (1878)
LGA: 41 (1983)
JFK: 43 (1983)

Historical:

 

1874 - The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of Northhampton MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood which claimed 143 lives, and caused a million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1924 - The temperature at Blitzen OR soared to 108 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. The record was later tied at Pelton Dam on the 31st of May in 1986. (The Weather Channel)

1952 - High winds in the Wasatch Canyon of Utah struck Ogden and Brigham City. Winds at Hill Air Force Base gusted to 92 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a summer-like day as thunderstorms abounded across the nation. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Guadelupe County with more than three inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Florida to New York State. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Havre, MT, reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado at Cleburne, TX, caused 30 million dollars damage. A violent (F-4) tornado touched down near Brackettville, TX, and a strong (F-3) tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, TX. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Shamrock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including a twister which killed one person and injured another north of Corning, AR. There were 128 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person and injured six others at Folsomville, IN, and injured another five persons in southeastern Hardin County KY. In Arkansas, baseball size hail was reported near Fouke and near El Dorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: On this date through the 17th, 6.55 inches of rain fell at St. Louis, MO. This is the fifth greatest 24-hour total amount of precipitation for that location. 5.73 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MO making it the sixth greatest 24-hour total amount of precipitation for that location.

[SACRUS]

 

Storms moving through C/N PA

 

[Sundog]

Where was this all winter:

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Where was this all winter:

Mostly on the gfs long range 

[SACRUS]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

sunny and cool for most of next week is going to be a fun experience.

 

Clouds look to come back as soon as Wed next week with a raw Thu/Fri

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mostly on the gfs long range 

All that virtual snow.....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Where was this all winter:

That would be a HEC in February. Timing is cutting it close with MDW. We definitely do not want that slowing down. 

[qg_omega]

Any storms tomorrow or just sunny and hot?

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Any storms tomorrow or just sunny and hot?

There is some small scattered stuff on the models, mostly north and west of the coast.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

There is some small scattered stuff on the models, mostly north and west of the coast.

Looks hot and humid, last day for a while

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be a HEC in February. Timing is cutting it close with MDW. We definitely do not want that slowing down. 

Oh you know it will. Once the cutoffs over the NE pattern sets up… 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks hot and humid, last day for a while

Music to my ears

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be a HEC in February. Timing is cutting it close with MDW. We definitely do not want that slowing down. 

I think we still have a trough/cutoff low into the weekend though...

[Picard]

Looks like a bit of excitement coming through PA if it holds together.

[Brian5671]

Just now, Picard said:

Looks like a bit of excitement coming through PA if it holds together.

models crap it out as it comes east--

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Picard said:

Looks like a bit of excitement coming through PA if it holds together.

Yeah models missed that. We’ll see if it actually verifys as a derecho. Definitely did over Michigan last night but you need severe winds over 250 miles and allot of it was over the lakes. Just a sub severe MCS now, but it’s that same complex of storms. Should at least see a decent light show.

[vegan_edible]

i pray we break this pattern by june. this weather sucks so bad. i do not want to see rain for the foreseeable future

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Clouds look to come back as soon as Wed next week with a raw Thu/Fri

well at least we hold it off Sunday-Wednesday

Thats going to be my Memorial Day weekend lol

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i pray we break this pattern by june. this weather sucks so bad. i do not want to see rain for the foreseeable future

we need to suck water vapor out of the atmosphere

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Music to my ears

If you were in better shape you would not mind the heat.

Humidity I agree on.