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7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Seems very likely that the Euro is overdone. It has over an inch of rain for our area this weekend, but we know from the short range models that most of the rain is likely to stay north and west for the weekend. I'll be surprised if our area sees anything today ..... just a slight chance. 

Looks like, with very localized exceptions, you are going to be right...

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30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

okx disagreed with the spc

Screenshot_20250503-183939.png

As they should for the majority of the area. Just watch as the storms hit the coast in central NJ hit the water and disappear. I’ll be lucky to see 3 drops. My vehicle was so green with pollen before I had to drag the house out from the backyard and wash it. 

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Aaaaaaaaaaaand poof! The cell off Cnj that caused those automatic weather apps to send an alert that it was going to start raining in an hour, is gone. So much stuff canceled today, when pretty much any of us who have been following the local weather for a while knew it wasn’t going to happen.

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Today was another exceptionally warm day. Temperatures again rose into the 80s across much of the region.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow. A wet pattern is likely tomorrow through Wednesday. A significant rainfall is possible, but there remain large differences among the computer models. The European Model is most aggressive in showing 5" or more rainfall. An early estimate of a general 1"-3" total with locally higher amounts during the Sunday-Wednesday period looks reasonable.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -6.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.650 today.

 

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34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature rose to 85° in New York City. At the New York Botanical Garden, tulips are in peak bloom.

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Nice shots Don! Tulips have the most incredible variety as they have been grown for ornamental value for so long. The major issue with Tulips are squirrels. They love to eat the bulbs. I’m sure the NYBG either replants bulbs yearly or somehow keeps the squirrels away. Daffodils are great to mix in, in a less formal garden as they are toxic and squirrels will avoid the area. 

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice shots Don! Tulips have the most incredible variety as they have been grown for ornamental value for so long. The major issue with Tulips are squirrels. They love to eat the bulbs. I’m sure the NYBG either replants bulbs yearly or somehow keeps the squirrels away. Daffodils are great to mix in, in a less formal garden as they are toxic and squirrels will avoid the area. 

Some of the locations with the tulips also have daffodil bulbs.

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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice shots Don! Tulips have the most incredible variety as they have been grown for ornamental value for so long. The major issue with Tulips are squirrels. They love to eat the bulbs. I’m sure the NYBG either replants bulbs yearly or somehow keeps the squirrels away. Daffodils are great to mix in, in a less formal garden as they are toxic and squirrels will avoid the area. 

No tulips in my yard, in addition to the squirrels they are crack for the deer. 

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

No tulips in my yard, in addition to the squirrels they are crack for the deer. 

Yeah deer resistant plants aren’t really my area of expertise. I just assume they eat almost anything. They are making their way back into the north shore of Nassua. But more of a scattered population. I’m sure they make it pretty deep into the Bronx too. Van Cortland park is big enough to support a pretty large permanent population. 

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah deer resistant plants aren’t really my area of expertise. I just assume they eat almost anything. They are making their way back into the north shore of Nassua. But more of a scattered population. I’m sure they make it pretty deep into the Bronx too. Van Cortland park is big enough to support a pretty large permanent population. 

Yeah, I've seen various deer resistant flowers/plants chomped up by deer when the herd is large and food starts running scarce. Fortunately the daffodils thrive undisturbed. 

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Most of the action is staying well to the west, but it appears we're gonna get lucky with a brief downpour. I'm hearing some thunder here now. 

Should be decent 

NJZ004-006-105>108-NYZ072-074-075-040230-

Hudson NJ-Eastern Union NJ-Eastern Essex NJ-Western Union NJ-

Western Essex NJ-Eastern Passaic NJ-New York (Manhattan) NY-

Kings (Brooklyn) NY-Richmond (Staten Is.) NY-

943 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HUDSON...UNION...ESSEX... RICHMOND...KINGS AND NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM

EDT...

At 942 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms over Society Hill, or over New Brunswick, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

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