May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile 2-3” of rain and gusts 40-50 here and hrrr says congrats Mitch.

Ineedsnow will be trying to book a cabin up at Savoy SP. 

[NoCORH4L]

8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Saturday Sunday and Monday don’t look terrible. Could definitely be worse, and did look worse about a week ago.

 

 

Looks like some actual warmth coming towards the end of next week

Dunno, for everyone in NNE it looks very showery and cloudy until Monday.

[CoastalWx]

At least the sun is popping out here this morning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least the weenie is popping out here this morning.

Rise and shine, Allison

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Saturday Sunday and Monday don’t look terrible. Could definitely be worse, and did look worse about a week ago.

 

 

Looks like some actual warmth coming towards the end of next week

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

We've really lost May as a summer month. Been replaced by December.

Unfortunately.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unfortunately.

This will be the storm everybody watered this winter.

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

Sews her own clothes and is fun at picnics.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This will be the storm everybody watered this winter.

When a typo isn’t really a typo

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

thicc weekend is fine

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile 2-3” of rain and gusts 40-50 here and hrrr says congrats Mitch.

12-18” with lollis to 24” and blizzard conditions at times. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

thicc weekend is fine

I'd say that after a 12 pack too.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

At least the sun is popping out here this morning.

I saw a 10 second splash ...  but yeah, it's hard to imagine even that much happening given this,

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

...which, that's pretty interesting to see that massive retrograde flow from the NE like that directly opposing that vortex-related flow arriving from the OV.   Obviously the one from the west will ultimately win... but the battle will require the depths of misery

[dendrite]

Yeah it was nice to see the sun for a few seconds… just to reassure it’s still there. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it was nice to see the sun for a few seconds… just to reassure it’s still there. 

Just got back from TNCA last evening. What a disaster this is.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just got back from TNCA last evening. What a disaster this is.

How did I not know you were in Aruba?

[dryslot]

Installs will be late this year, I'm thinking July the earliest.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oooh, that's why no weather-related melt downs from Scott this week so far...   I wondered how in the hell it could be that this time in Count Rugen's torture chamber wasn't triggering moaning and outrage ...

I give it until late afternoon.  

 

 

[metagraphica]

50/42  This is no way to run a Summah.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd say that after a 12 pack too.

I don't think there is enough booze to make the past 7 years palatable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oooh, that's why no weather-related melt downs from Scott this week so far...   I wondered how in the hell it could be that this time in Count Rugen's torture chamber wasn't triggering moaning and outrage ...

I give it until late afternoon.  

 

 

May have some of that with the weenie out and all...

[KTBFFH1905]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

12-18” with lollis to 24” and blizzard conditions at times. 

We have 105 soccer teams coming to our complex for Sat/Sun, which is of course built in the lowest part of town next to a lake which is next to the Farmington. Two weeks ago we had 6 of 14 fields flooded. 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

50/42  This is no way to run a Summah.

thanks fully... it is not summer - 

seriously though, there's a improving signal for heat ... well, "warmer" ( lets start there and see where this goes - ) at the end of next week that's open ended heading into June.

It's in the extended so no use really commenting on differences in timing onset and/or magnitude and those details for now.   But this would coincide with the June 1 climate demarcation standard - which of course means nothing to objective nature ... but seein' and humans like tidy boundaries. lol

[Typhoon Tip]

The D7 thru 13 telecon modality is -PNA whilst the polar field indexes are positive.   

At some point along the way here the perennial correlation blurring associated to summer hemispheric L/W breakdown skewing things will set in... but, it's obviously based upon what is actually happening - not what the climate says it should.  In this case, there's identifiable Rosby ordering in the hemisphere - although there is some wave skewing noted... So long as as the indenties are still prevalent however, there's correlative value. 

A -PNA, combined with a relaxed blocking/+AO(NAO) ... is a telecon convergent signal for warm up over the continental mid latitudes. 

I also like the robust +PNA in the foreground.   In my own researching heat wave genesis for the eastern CONUS, I've noted that they are often preceded by a +PNA effectively generating multi day tropospheric thermal fixing over the W/SW aspects of the continent; then the subsequent mass field shift ejects this heat E into a -PNA signaled ridge ballooning.  This sequence of events is like a 10-day in wholesale behavior.  A model that actually fits what we are seeing in the telecons at this time.  The operational versions have already been hinting.  With a +PNA maxing in 5 days, then -d(PNA) taking place, then seeing the seesaw at large scale mass field layout in operationals out there is interesting.   Not outright predicting a 'Sonoran heat release'/SW expulsion event, but for an extended tapestry of indicators it's a possibility some amount above base-line climatology.  

[weatherwiz]

Nieces graduation is outside tomorrow...this is going to be fun   

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a violent afternoon here tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

thanks fully... it is not summer - 

seriously though, there's a improving signal for heat ... well, "warmer" ( lets start there and see where this goes - ) at the end of next week that's open ended heading into June.

It's in the extended so no use really commenting on differences in timing onset and/or magnitude and those details for now.   But this would coincide with the June 1 climate demarcation standard - which of course means nothing to objective nature ... but seein' and humans like tidy boundaries. lol

It’s coming soon and hot , moist and heavy. They are worried 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just got back from TNCA last evening. What a disaster this is.

Was kayaking on the Colorado River yesterday. 97°. What’s happening back home is an abomination. 

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a violent afternoon here tomorrow.

we want this kind of violence though

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was kayaking on the Colorado River yesterday. 97°. What’s happening back home is an abomination. 

Horrific. But your trip sounds awesome.