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May 2025 Obs/Discussion

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Trimmed the video. It happens about 40 seconds in. Like I said, I apologize for the camera disruptions early, I was relocating the camera. Still not sure if this is a gustnado or actual tornado. But w

Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland

Can’t believe Wizzy caught a Tor . Fantastic work kid 

butterfish55
butterfish55

Installing a generator on the Cape in Dennis today. Beautiful morning here, warm and sunny

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just shy of 5” since Friday night. 3” since midnight yesterday.. looks like another inch coming with that slug to our SSW. 

 

49 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty large swath of 3-6” a few 7”+ reports as well. Just not as widespread maybe as the models had. 

IMG_6088.jpeg

Pretty interesting distribution. I know I’ve been sucker holed the entire event but I’m thinking I should get a stratus. I’m running lower than all surrounding stations. It is most pronounced during heavier events. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my recap of last season:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/winter-2024-2025-slightly-warmer-than.html

 

ERROR.png
CAUSE.png
 
Screenshot%202025-05-05%20at%207.14.03%E2%80%AFPM.png
 
Screenshot%202025-05-05%20at%207.37.32%E2%80%AFPM.png
 
Index Value
Predicted '24-'25 DM   Value Range
Actual  '24-'25 DM Value
Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
-1.85 to -2.15
-1.46
Biased .39 Negative
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)
-.40 to +.10
+1.02
Biased .92 Negative
ENSO
DJF -0.6 to -0.8 ONI
EMI: -.5 to -.7 (Mixed-Type)
DJF -0.6 ONI
DJF EMI: -.7
Verified
 (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)/DM West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)
+.30 to +.60 JM EPO
-.40 to -.70 DM WPO
-.30 JM EPO
+.45 DM WPO
 
Biased .60 Positive
Biased -.85 Negative
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
+.26 to +.56
-.18
Biased .44 Negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
+.38 to +.68
+.65
 
Verified
 
City
Predicted Snowfall
Actual
Forecast Error
Boston, MA
24-34"
28.1"
Verified
NewYork, NY(Central Park)
10-20"
12.9"
Verified
Philadelphia, PA
8-18"
7.7"
3.9%
Baltimore, MD
6-16"
12.7"
Verified
Washington, DC
4-14"
14.9"
6.4%
Albany, NY
48-58"
43.9"
9.3%
Hartford, CT
24-34"
23.4"
2.6%
Providence, RI
20-30"
15.6"
28.2%
Worcester, MA
50-60"
41.2"
21.4%
Tolland, CT
40-50"
32"
25%
Methuen, MA
41-51"
32.5"
26.2%
Hyannis, MA
14-24"
10.8"
30%
Burlington, VT
65-75"
 
75.7"
0.9%
Portland, ME
48-58"
54.1
Verified
Concord, NH
49-59"
37.5"
30.7%
 

Final Grade for 2024-2025 Season: B

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? To what?

I’m not calling for 40s all week. I’m just saying it might throw a wrench into things with cooler weather and maybe even a couple of showers. All I said was to watch it. I didn’t say it’s gonna be days and days of crap weather.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

I'm at a loss here.. the other day I chased a storm in winchendon and coming home near my house I noticed branches down and you could tell it was windy but the ground wasn't wet and we missed the storm.. today I took the backroads home from market basket in Athol and was driving on rt 202 towards Templeton. I noticed about a 2 mile stretch where trees were snapped and a bunch blown over and they were mature bigger trees.. we didn't get it like that here but it would of been the path the storm would have took. My question is can you get a microburst being on the edge of the storm and no precip? 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm at a loss here.. the other day I chased a storm in winchendon and coming home near my house I noticed branches down and you could tell it was windy but the ground wasn't wet and we missed the storm.. today I took the backroads home from market basket in Athol and was driving on rt 202 towards Templeton. I noticed about a 2 mile stretch where trees were snapped and a bunch blown over and they were mature bigger trees.. we didn't get it like that here but it would of been the path the storm would have took. My question is can you get a microburst being on the edge of the storm and no precip? 

I've had wind damage from sprinkles. If the cold pool gets establish, it can really maintain itself with the help of evaporation cooling too. I don't think it's very common here, but it can happen.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Pretty interesting distribution. I know I’ve been sucker holed the entire event but I’m thinking I should get a stratus. I’m running lower than all surrounding stations. It is most pronounced during heavier events. 

That 6.88" in Prospect, CT is pretty impressive.

7.36" in Greene County, NY south of ALB... that area does large E/SE upslope.

Pretty interesting upslope/downslope couplets from the Berkshires and Catskills.  SE flow... high amounts up the east slope, then much less down the west slope, then increase again on the east side of the Catskills.

942240498_Screenshot2025-05-06112401.jpg.738f17f0996b2ac50dba95e68756d25a.jpg

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've had wind damage from sprinkles. If the cold pool gets establish, it can really maintain itself with the help of evaporation cooling too. I don't think it's very common here, but it can happen.

The outflow and gust front meant business. I think I've read some accounts from some of the SNE wx pages of people saying how chilly it felt with the outflow and gust front. With the way the storms were were aligned and tracking its possible maybe you had a couple localized areas where the outflows interacted and produced some brief, but intense straight-line winds. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm at a loss here.. the other day I chased a storm in winchendon and coming home near my house I noticed branches down and you could tell it was windy but the ground wasn't wet and we missed the storm.. today I took the backroads home from market basket in Athol and was driving on rt 202 towards Templeton. I noticed about a 2 mile stretch where trees were snapped and a bunch blown over and they were mature bigger trees.. we didn't get it like that here but it would of been the path the storm would have took. My question is can you get a microburst being on the edge of the storm and no precip? 

As an example, as the storms approached BOX you could start to see a faint echo representing the gust front/outflow. Conditions were really conducive to forming strong cold pools. and so the leading edge of the wind was approaching Danvers when you wouldn't have seen rain until you got to Newburyport. 

That's one way to do it. Another is a dry microburst. That is more of a western CONUS thing. You need deep dry air in the lower levels, which evaporates all the precip before it hits the ground. However you still get evaporatively cooled air that accelerates to the ground and can be quite strong. MAF a week or two ago gusted to over 100 mph from a dry microburst.

a2d65698-890a-4fcc-9315-dc6db179eedb.png

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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Posted
21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

As an example, as the storms approached BOX you could start to see a faint echo representing the gust front/outflow. Conditions were really conducive to forming strong cold pools. and so the leading edge of the wind was approaching Danvers when you wouldn't have seen rain until you got to Newburyport. 

That's one way to do it. Another is a dry microburst. That is more of a western CONUS thing. You need deep dry air in the lower levels, which evaporates all the precip before it hits the ground. However you still get evaporatively cooled air that accelerates to the ground and can be quite strong. MAF a week or two ago gusted to over 100 mph from a dry microburst.

a2d65698-890a-4fcc-9315-dc6db179eedb.png

I would mind living near MAF for like April/May/early June

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm at a loss here.. the other day I chased a storm in winchendon and coming home near my house I noticed branches down and you could tell it was windy but the ground wasn't wet and we missed the storm.. today I took the backroads home from market basket in Athol and was driving on rt 202 towards Templeton. I noticed about a 2 mile stretch where trees were snapped and a bunch blown over and they were mature bigger trees.. we didn't get it like that here but it would of been the path the storm would have took. My question is can you get a microburst being on the edge of the storm and no precip? 

Sure. A gust front 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I've had wind damage from sprinkles. If the cold pool gets establish, it can really maintain itself with the help of evaporation cooling too. I don't think it's very common here, but it can happen.

 

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The outflow and gust front meant business. I think I've read some accounts from some of the SNE wx pages of people saying how chilly it felt with the outflow and gust front. With the way the storms were were aligned and tracking its possible maybe you had a couple localized areas where the outflows interacted and produced some brief, but intense straight-line winds. 

 

43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

As an example, as the storms approached BOX you could start to see a faint echo representing the gust front/outflow. Conditions were really conducive to forming strong cold pools. and so the leading edge of the wind was approaching Danvers when you wouldn't have seen rain until you got to Newburyport. 

That's one way to do it. Another is a dry microburst. That is more of a western CONUS thing. You need deep dry air in the lower levels, which evaporates all the precip before it hits the ground. However you still get evaporatively cooled air that accelerates to the ground and can be quite strong. MAF a week or two ago gusted to over 100 mph from a dry microburst.

a2d65698-890a-4fcc-9315-dc6db179eedb.png

Thank you for the explanation.. it must of been wild sucks I missed it.. if only knew.. this would of been before the main line even came. It was the stuff out of front of it.. probably around 330ish

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

 

Thank you for the explanation.. it must of been wild sucks I missed it.. if only knew.. this would have been before the main line even came. It was the stuff out of front of it.. probably around 330ish

How come didn’t thank me who provided the same explanation with much less verbiage?

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