May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take the dry weather we had though. What a weekend starting Friday.

This coming weekend?!?

[CoastalWx]

Don’t really see big heat either. Bit with that cutoff to our south next week.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

This coming weekend?!?

Oh sorry haha. I meant last weekend. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh sorry haha. I meant last weekend. 

Darn. I was hoping you had a model that didn’t show a coastal storm ruining Saturday. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I meant post Sunday. Way too wet.

Ya for you guys out East for sure.. Still a solid 2-5" in these parts since Midnight Monday.. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just shy of 5” since Friday night. 3” since midnight yesterday.. looks like another inch coming with that slug to our SSW. 

 

49 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty large swath of 3-6” a few 7”+ reports as well. Just not as widespread maybe as the models had. 

Pretty interesting distribution. I know I’ve been sucker holed the entire event but I’m thinking I should get a stratus. I’m running lower than all surrounding stations. It is most pronounced during heavier events. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Next week looks very nice 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks very nice 

Watch that cutoff.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

0.39 month to date 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Watch that cutoff.

I’ll stick with Hammer . He knows 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll stick with Hammer . He knows 

Didn't he say it too?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my recap of last season:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/winter-2024-2025-slightly-warmer-than.html

 

 

 

 

Index Value	Predicted '24-'25 DM   Value Range	Actual  '24-'25 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-1.85 to -2.15	-1.46	Biased .39 Negative
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.40 to +.10	+1.02	Biased .92 Negative
ENSO	DJF -0.6 to -0.8 ONI EMI: -.5 to -.7 (Mixed-Type)	DJF -0.6 ONI DJF EMI: -.7	Verified
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)/DM West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)	+.30 to +.60 JM EPO -.40 to -.70 DM WPO	-.30 JM EPO +.45 DM WPO	Biased .60 Positive Biased -.85 Negative
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	+.26 to +.56	-.18	Biased .44 Negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.38 to +.68	+.65	Verified

 

City	Predicted Snowfall	Actual	Forecast Error
Boston, MA	24-34"	28.1"	Verified
NewYork, NY(Central Park)	10-20"	12.9"	Verified
Philadelphia, PA	8-18"	7.7"	3.9%
Baltimore, MD	6-16"	12.7"	Verified
Washington, DC	4-14"	14.9"	6.4%
Albany, NY	48-58"	43.9"	9.3%
Hartford, CT	24-34"	23.4"	2.6%
Providence, RI	20-30"	15.6"	28.2%
Worcester, MA	50-60"	41.2"	21.4%
Tolland, CT	40-50"	32"	25%
Methuen, MA	41-51"	32.5"	26.2%
Hyannis, MA	14-24"	10.8"	30%
Burlington, VT	65-75"	75.7"	0.9%
Portland, ME	48-58"	54.1	Verified
Concord, NH	49-59"	37.5"	30.7%

Final Grade for 2024-2025 Season: B

 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Didn't he say it too?

This was his forecast 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This was his forecast 

Might be tweaked 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be tweaked 

Why? To what?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? To what?

I’m not calling for 40s all week. I’m just saying it might throw a wrench into things with cooler weather and maybe even a couple of showers. All I said was to watch it. I didn’t say it’s gonna be days and days of crap weather.

[weatherwiz]

Gotta say...the Euro from late last week anyways did a damn good job at nailing the second half of the week here. The GFS was super aggressive with building in the high pressure. Euro sniffed out precip along the weak cold front sagging south Thursday. 

[ineedsnow]

I'm at a loss here.. the other day I chased a storm in winchendon and coming home near my house I noticed branches down and you could tell it was windy but the ground wasn't wet and we missed the storm.. today I took the backroads home from market basket in Athol and was driving on rt 202 towards Templeton. I noticed about a 2 mile stretch where trees were snapped and a bunch blown over and they were mature bigger trees.. we didn't get it like that here but it would of been the path the storm would have took. My question is can you get a microburst being on the edge of the storm and no precip? 

[DavisStraight]

Great weather for you guys who fertilized and seeded.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm at a loss here.. the other day I chased a storm in winchendon and coming home near my house I noticed branches down and you could tell it was windy but the ground wasn't wet and we missed the storm.. today I took the backroads home from market basket in Athol and was driving on rt 202 towards Templeton. I noticed about a 2 mile stretch where trees were snapped and a bunch blown over and they were mature bigger trees.. we didn't get it like that here but it would of been the path the storm would have took. My question is can you get a microburst being on the edge of the storm and no precip? 

I've had wind damage from sprinkles. If the cold pool gets establish, it can really maintain itself with the help of evaporation cooling too. I don't think it's very common here, but it can happen.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Pretty interesting distribution. I know I’ve been sucker holed the entire event but I’m thinking I should get a stratus. I’m running lower than all surrounding stations. It is most pronounced during heavier events. 

That 6.88" in Prospect, CT is pretty impressive.

7.36" in Greene County, NY south of ALB... that area does large E/SE upslope.

Pretty interesting upslope/downslope couplets from the Berkshires and Catskills.  SE flow... high amounts up the east slope, then much less down the west slope, then increase again on the east side of the Catskills.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've had wind damage from sprinkles. If the cold pool gets establish, it can really maintain itself with the help of evaporation cooling too. I don't think it's very common here, but it can happen.

The outflow and gust front meant business. I think I've read some accounts from some of the SNE wx pages of people saying how chilly it felt with the outflow and gust front. With the way the storms were were aligned and tracking its possible maybe you had a couple localized areas where the outflows interacted and produced some brief, but intense straight-line winds.