2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends what is meant by the bold ( for me - )

Snow advances ... that's just seasonally unavoidable.  But, not all years observe this normalcy the same way.  They all tend ( or used to before perhaps 25 years ago), end up around the same cryospheric state by mid Februaries ... but the autumnal d(cryo)/dt (speed of recovery) I have found is more correlated to ensuing winter temperature biases over Canada ( and by circumstance of proximity ... affecting the U.S.)

Faster tended to be colder Mt-WI-NY-NS

Slower tended to be more variable .. ( don't wanna say "warm" here because that word is very relative circa Jan 25th at Tower Minnesota)

So stating the obvious... cold is intrinsic to snow.  Gee ya think-

But what's interesting about this is that the correlation has been not as good over the last decade ... It's complex, but I suspect the warming polar summer states are setting favorable frameworks abrupt behavior in recovery times - so it's artificially ( so to speak...) lending to impressive d(cryo)/dt.  

... Like everything being effected by the CC one-eyed monster, the predictability of any domain in question tends to be the first aspects to get f'ed.

So the simplest version of all this, yes the d(cryo)/dt is impressive, this year, but - for me - it could be construed as more impressive in say, 1995 than it really is in 2025.

*But* ( ... to add even more to this "popcycle" headache - ), it's not just the land snow.  I noticed, back mid to late August that that he rate of sea-ice loss was slower than the last several years...  That was unexpected, particularly when we just came off the 2023 piss in the oceanic jacuzzi historic globally historic year so recently.  Interesting...  Anyway, the seasonal nadir appeared to also happen about 10 days to 2 weeks earlier than the last several years ( using Climate Reanalyzer), and has shown also that seasonal recovery behaves to do so more meaningfully, sooner and perhaps faster.   This below is an example of how the scalar value, still being low, belies the character/behavior of the system, which is perhaps better exposed by evaluating the deltas

What adds more interest to this IMO is it seems a lot of "correlations" we had been very familiar with have diminished over the past decade-plus as well. Now, the easy answer here is that is just a product of increasing our sample size (data set). This is likely certainly a factor, but how strong of a factor? But I suspect something else is going on too...and the way to come to that conclusion is when you break everything down into how we understand things and basic principles and you're getting results that don't make sense. 

also, if I understand correctly, the correlation is geared more towards the evolution of the AO? Lots of influences on the state and evolution of the AO, especially stratospheric processes. 

[MJO812]

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=19

Winter outlook

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=19

Winter outlook

There are so many contradicting forecasts going on this year. Of course, I would like the one that shows us getting a better winter this year, but there are some that show below average. Was very confusing. Is that these forecasts are by meteorologists and some of them are calling for dryer and less snow for the Northeast and some are calling for above normal for the Northeast. Just like every year ( in regards to the last 5 to 7 at least ), it feels like a crap shoot.

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

There are so many contradicting forecasts going on this year. Of course, I would like the one that shows us getting a better winter this year, but there are some that show below average. Was very confusing. Is that these forecasts are by meteorologists and some of them are calling for dryer and less snow for the Northeast and some are calling for above normal for the Northeast. Just like every year ( in regards to the last 5 to 7 at least ), it feels like a crap shoot.

Winter outlooks this far out are crapshoots.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter outlooks this far out are crapshoots.

One of them will be right.  Google AI basically says all options are on the table.  Which is correct!  I’m going with that.

 

[mahk_webstah]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

More voodoo.

I’m just focused on the development of blocking later this month

[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m just focused on the development of blocking later this month

Meh. Late October blocking? Let’s get that in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like Wxbell is beeffing up this season...soundings and faster load times, among other things.

[mahk_webstah]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Late October blocking? Let’s get that in January.

Totally but we’ve had such a warm fall that I wouldn’t mind a quick turn to winter and that pattern could probably yield some early snow

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like Wxbell is beeffing up this season...soundings and faster load times, among other things.

I like Pivotal and Stormvista better.

[George001]

I am all in. I believe something big is going to happen this winter. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am all in. I believe something big is going to happen this winter. 

Well... Statistics and time is on our side as we haven't really had anything too big region wide in quite some time. I'm excited to get the season going. Bring out the weenies... Kev? Kev? 

[MJO812]

Meteorologist Bobby Martrich from EPAWA likes a +TNH pattern with a  -EPO  for this winter.  

[cleetussnow]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

I am all in. I believe something big is going to happen this winter. 

Big heat wave starting December 24th until January 2nd. Set your watch to it.