2025-2026 ENSO

[BlizzardWx]

I don't know if others feel this way, but I get really sick of the PSL interface and just making one map at a time. So I made some code that you can put into google colab. It allows you to set up your parameters via function arguments and you can select a range of years and get individual plots for all those years. It lets you do composite plots too but what I really had in mind was if you wanted to say, look at 50 hPa heights for December for the last 50 years. You can do it quickly. It will just get you 50 maps in like 45 seconds. It's just for Anomaly plots.  I can't guarantee it won't break. But it seemed to work for what I tested. Anyway, I know a lot of you make these plots so maybe this helps somebody. There are some commented out examples at the bottom. 

psl_code.txt

 

With that said, the reason why I made that is I wanted to look at the polar vortex position in relation to the winter. I see two current paths in model guidance. The AIFS camp that wants to keep the PV over Canada and the GEFS camp that moves it further east.  Here are some matches I found.

 

With that said, the group I grabbed for 50 hPa look colder than current guidance for mid month. So maybe my composite wasn't so great or maybe it'll trend colder at some point. Not sure.

 

Looking ahead, the central Canada centered PV case rolls forward to a cold eastern half of the country in Jan-Feb. Not surprising given the analog years I found.

It's similar in the PV-east case, but January is warmer. 

 

 

Maybe this is all garbage. But the thing that has caught my attention is the PV being displaced south over Canada. It just makes the cold more available and its probably why so many of the similar PV years were cold. I am not sure I buy it being as cold as these show to be honest and maybe by late December it'll be different enough that this analysis didn't mean anything. Time will tell of course. 

 

 

[raindancewx]

Canadian update continues to insist on El Nino conditions developing in February at the surface. Likely by January below the surface. Fairly cold winter nationally.

Has the cold look for the North-Central US I've been getting from analogs since Aug/Sept.

My blend from Oct - (2013 x4, 2024 x4, 2018, 2022). Hasn't broken yet. I am expecting a pretty widespread warm up after a cold first 10 days or so - we'll see if that pans out.

[Krs4Lfe]

46 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian update continues to insist on El Nino conditions developing in February at the surface. Likely by January below the surface. Fairly cold winter nationally.

Has the cold look for the North-Central US I've been getting from analogs since Aug/Sept.

My blend from Oct - (2013 x4, 2024 x4, 2018, 2022). Hasn't broken yet. I am expecting a pretty widespread warm up after a cold first 10 days or so - we'll see if that pans out.

Yes once that trough moves over Alaska in the 2nd week of December, I’d expect some milder air from the pacific to flood CONUS and lead to a moderation of temps and probably a pause in the storminess. Hopefully we can cash in before that happens