2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for posting this. These are interesting to follow.

 -GEFS not surprisingly came in a bit weaker with its amplitude. However, it still remains stronger than Euro/JMA.

-Stark timing differences remain. On March 7th, whereas GEFS is still in phase 5, EPS/JMA are in phases 7/1!

[vegan_edible]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Unfortunately its likely late month when we hit phase 8 and blocking returns due to the wind reversal to muck up spring. 

like clockwork, march gets your hopes up then april crushes us with some of the most depressing weather of the year

[so_whats_happening]

On 2/25/2026 at 1:35 PM, snowman19 said:

I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff

I guess it will finally 'split' coming up here, I feel a little too late anyway for any big fun but whatever Many have gotten solid snows this year. As far as a final warming it does not completely obliterate the SPV coming up here so technically it is still intact in some way. When you start to lose the idea of any cohesiveness of the SPV then it is considered done which does not look like it through at least mid March. Typically the final warming happens from the last week of March through 3rd week of April but as we know can happen before or after that timeframe.

Sorry been on vacation starting to bring things back to normal for the work week coming up.

Edit: Wanted to add this because this does show the overall structure does split besides one random layer. So this should hit the troposphere rather quick. https://www.stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

I guess it will finally 'split' coming up here, I feel a little too late anyway for any big fun but whatever Many have gotten solid snows this year. As far as a final warming it does not completely obliterate the SPV coming up here so technically it is still intact in some way. When you start to lose the idea of any cohesiveness of the SPV then it is considered done which does not look like it through at least mid March. Typically the final warming happens from the last week of March through 3rd week of April but as we know can happen before or after that timeframe.

Sorry been on vacation starting to bring things back to normal for the work week coming up.

There does seem to be some surface connection trying to show up in the longer range when this does occur so I would not be surprised to get a blocky colder pattern as we head to mid month. Ill enjoy the warmth ahead of it though!

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

Today’s EW is back down to -5 for the low of the 10 mb mean wind (2nd lowest to the run of 3 days ago that had -11) and it has 100% reversing (same as run of 3 days ago) though the run still shows no sign of notable longlasting cold before April (only subtle hint for Apr 6-12 in Midwest/NE): note that I don’t base these posts on the bogus too cold especially late portion of WB extended EPS, which practically every run go to BN in most of the E US late and Rockies most of run; if one goes by those, they’ll always be thinking cold in the E US by late in the runs….ridiculous; unfortunately these too cold maps influence some pro mets @donsutherland1is aware of this problem

 More on the WB cold bias issue:

Today’s April 6-12 from ecmwf: a few areas 1-2F BN and that’s the coldest! This is what I mean by just subtle hints of cold:

 

Today’s April 6-12 from WB: the west is absolutely laughable and east is also significantly too cold! And note that this climo (1991-2020) is colder climo than ecmwf, which uses just the last 20 years meaning that alone should make the WB maps a little warmer rather than significantly colder than the in-house maps!