2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

Weeklies 

[EasternLI]

This cluster is growing FWIW..

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies 

The Euro weeklies are now mainly cold for the E US for most of Feb, even colder than yesterday! Any hopes for a mild E US are fading away, which is fine with me. And that’s only after the very cold late Jan! Natgas closed a pretty historic 26% above its Fri price!!
 
In particular, the week 2/16-22 has a snowy signal:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

[snowman19]

@Gawx Thoughts:

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies 

The breakdown of warm February being predicted on the weeklies after a colder second half of January is astonishing. Obviously, good looking patterns (ie, colder anomalies and ample precipitation) don't always translate to snowstorms (such as December 2022, February 2025 etc), but this is a good look to see

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx
 

Judah is wrong...gonna split. 

[George001]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is that some like Tony feel that as though they have a license to spew nonsense because the pattern is evolving in a cold and snowy manner.

I don’t think Tony is entirely off base about the La Niña collapsing. While it is true that the surface is still solidly La Niña, the subsurface has warmed rapidly and is now warm neutral. I remember Chuck highlighted the importance of the subsurface a while ago. How big or small of a role do you think that is playing in terms of the now active STJ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t think Tony is entirely off base about the La Niña collapsing. While it is true that the surface is still solidly La Niña, the subsurface has warmed rapidly and is now warm neutral. I remember Chuck highlighted the importance of the subsurface a while ago. How big or small of a role do you think that is playing in terms of the now active STJ? 

It's not collapsing. It's playing very little role...we must have had an El Nino last year, right? Oops...

[George001]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not collapsing. It's playing very little role...we must have had an El Nino last year, right? Oops...

Ah I see what you are getting at. The STJ got active at times last winter too, and it was a La Niña with a La Niña subsurface. Point taken, It’s other factors that are driving the pattern, not ENSO. And that includes STJ activity.