2025-2026 ENSO

[BlizzardWx]

It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month. 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month. 

When you consider that both the EPS and GEFS have had a notable -PNA bias/notable warm bias from your area eastward and that all -ENSO -PNA Decs have transitioned to +PNA Jans, these consistently much better pattern maps for mid-Jan are quite encouraging. Just 5 days ago, the EW had this ugly -PNA for 1/12-18:

[stadiumwave]

0z Euro....lol

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21.

-NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

 

[snowman19]

On 12/26/2025 at 7:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is my +PNA. Looks like the blocking reprieve won't last as long as I thought since the Strat and troposphere are remaining uncoupled, but I did get the strengthening PV right.

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November 

[donsutherland1]

January looks to get off to a cool start in the eastern U.S. and Great Lakes Region. The Southwest will likely remain abnormally warm for at least the opening of January.

The latest EPS teleconnection forecast calls for the development of a predominant WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern. It may take some time for the PNA+ to develop. That's probably where the greatest uncertainty lies. An alternative scenario involves a continuation of the WPO-/PNA- in combination with the EPO+/AO-.  If the PNA+ fails to develop and the WPO goes positive, warmth could develop on a larger scale across North America with the cold being limited to mainly Alaska and Canada. That is currently a low probability outcome but a wildcard that can't be dismissed.

EPS 9-13 Day Outlook:

WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ (January 1-10, 1980-2025):

ECMWF Weeklies (December 29-January 5):

ECMWF Weeklies (January 5-January 12):

The development of a predominant WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern is the baseline scenario. Despite some social media rumors of a big snowstorm in parts of the East during the first 7-10 days of January, the forecast teleconnections typically do not favor large East Coast snowstorms. Instead, they favor lighter snows. For reference, New York City had no 6' or above snowstorms during January 1-10, 1950-2025 with a WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November 

Probably the longer it takes the +PNA to develop the less February ends up mild because it tends to be a difficult pattern to flip out of rapidly, so if it does not establish til around 1/15 I could see it being 2/10 or 2/15 before we really begin to get that setup.  In recent really mild Februarys in the La Nina years January has tended to be cold from the very beginning.  I think outside of the Lakes/NE its going to be 1/12 or so til we see the cold anomalies get down into the SE/TN Valley/Plains

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

I looked at the NYC snowfall for the 17 -ENSO winters for which Dec was cold and had snowfall of 6”+ (from @donsutherland1updated list):

 

Year (Dec)..Total Season..Jan+

1872….60.2….29.9

1874….56.4….46.3

1886….31.9….21.6

1893….39.2….30.9

1903….32.4….26.0

1909….27.2….17.4

1915….50.7….42.6

1916….50.7….36.2

1917….34.5….20.1

1922….60.4….51.4

1926….22.3….10.6

1933….52.0….36.6

1942….29.5….21.0

1944….27.1….20.4

1995….75.6….61.2

2000….35.0….21.6

2010….61.9….41.8

————————

Analysis:

-AVG of these Jan+: 31.5” vs 22.1” full 156 year record mean or 143% of mean for Jan+ (median was 29.9”)

-41% (7 of 17) had 35”+ for Jan+ vs only 12% of the other 139 (17 of 139)

-These 17, which are only 11% of the total 156 on record, had:

1. Highest Jan of the 156 on record (2011’s 36.0”) and 3 of top 5 Jans (2011, 1996, 1923)

2. 3rd highest Feb of the 156 (1934’s 27.9”)

3. 2nd highest Mar of the 156 (2016’s 25.5”)

4. Highest Apr of the 156 (1875’s 13.5”) and tie for 5th (1917’s 6.5”)

—————————

My NYC total 2025-6 snow prediction based on these stats:

 40” (most likely range 30-50”)

 This compares to 156 year and 35 year means of 28”.