2025-2026 ENSO

[BlizzardWx]

It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month. 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month. 

When you consider that both the EPS and GEFS have had a notable -PNA bias/notable warm bias from your area eastward and that all -ENSO -PNA Decs have transitioned to +PNA Jans, these consistently much better pattern maps for mid-Jan are quite encouraging. Just 5 days ago, the EW had this ugly -PNA for 1/12-18:

[stadiumwave]

0z Euro....lol

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21.

-NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

 

[snowman19]

On 12/26/2025 at 7:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is my +PNA. Looks like the blocking reprieve won't last as long as I thought since the Strat and troposphere are remaining uncoupled, but I did get the strengthening PV right.

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November