2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January
 

It’s important to note however that Eric Webb was calling for a similar pattern as last year back in November (+TNH). His main caveat is that -PNA episodes would be more frequent this year. So far that is the case, and if @40/70 Benchmark is right, we could improve things by mid Jan. 

The phase 8 hype was clearly over the top and the MJO entering phase 8 (and then collapsing into repeated fast-moving KW’s) is what is about to give us this pattern. You’d almost want to see the MJO re-emerging over the MC in phases 4-6 to enhance the standing convection over the Indo-pacific warm pool, which would inject some more momentum into the pacific jet and help nudge things eastward. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March 2001 is another great analog.....maybe March 2023 with a less hostile Pacific.

Oh please, no March 2001. I would not wish that on any snow lover.

I'd prefer March 2017 as an analog.

[Krs4Lfe]

The pattern regression is quite impressive. There's no more being on the fence about that, the warm air will be pushing through this region and will likely result in the last 10 days of december being a few degrees above normal. Despite the -NAO, there's no opportunity for snow because no snow storms can form due to the coast to coast torch across CONUS. This is one of the quickest pattern regressions I've ever seen. All the calls for renewed cold air after this "brief" warmup will likely be very inaccurate. It'll take some pacific jet extension to shake this up, or there's a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat coming right up

[BlizzardWx]

The warmth continues to look impressive here, with mid 70s to low 80s for several days before and after Christmas. Likely a few record highs and max mins. The overall pattern continues to look messy to me and out of phase, perhaps from multiple competing factors. That tends to make it hard to secure anything really great in terms of winter weather down south. So for now I see nothing positive, but obviously that could change in a few weeks. 

[anthonymm]

On 12/18/2025 at 9:32 AM, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, the December and January snowfalls for New York City (1980-Present) with the teleconnections you listed:

PNA = king for the coastal plain. we simply do not get decent snows without it, with extremely rare exceptions.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar to the prior ones through Jan 11th with mild for much of the country though the warmest is closer to the C US, well away from the E US.

 However, today’s weeks 4-5 continue yesterday’s cooling trend:

1/12-18

12/17 run:

12/19 run:

 

1/19-25

12/18 run:

12/19 run:

 

And then week 6 is similar to yesterday’s in the E US:

 In summary, whereas the first 3 weeks (through 1/11) remain mild in much of the E US, the last 3 weeks (1/12-2/1) are mainly NN to a little BN in most of the E US.

 The 1/19-25 map suggests a +PNA is trying to form: