2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 Natural gas is down still another 3% today making it a total of a whopping 29% just since the high of Dec 4th!

[leo2000]

Those Euro weeklies are horrendously warm!

 

[michsnowfreak]

After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

Those Euro weeklies are horrendously warm!

 

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990. No exaggeration, they are extremely ugly

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, snowman19 said:

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990

Chances are those will be wrong.  The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter.  I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February 

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990. No exaggeration, they are extremely ugly

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990. No exaggeration, they are extremely ugly

They do not look like January 1990 verbatim. January 1990 was much warmer in the Northeast and midwest than today's run of the euro weeklies is for January 2026. You are essentially doing the same thing you constantly criticize JB for doing. You are taking a mild look and throwing out eye catching warm years past, despite the fact they dont match.

[EasternLI]

Personally, I'm thinking this 8-10 day range here is pretty meaningful. Does Santa deliver a true Scandinavian block or not. Some of these half attempts probably don't work well for us. This is from the 12z eps cluster analysis. 5 of them for this period today. Todays Euro OP says no, and is grouped with cluster 2. Cluster 1 on the eps, populated with a greater number of members says yes. I flipped this for easier viewing of our side of the world. So clusters 1-5 is left to right. Days 8-10 are bottom to top. If we do happen to see an amplified block like the 1st cluster is displaying then you'd probably see a pretty big wave 2 shot that goes up into the strat along with it. If that does not happen, then you won't see that. Probably not a retrograde to a true -NAO block either I would assume. You can see it expressed in the EPS strat mean during this timeframe too. Which is most likely reflecting that potential feature in the members. One way or another, we want to see that block happen. Incidentally, there are factors which support the block to indeed happen based on reasons laid out in this thread already. We wait and see if one does actually materialize but it does appear as a favored outcome in this 12z eps run as well.

[qg_omega]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Well, as of Dec 13th, the MJO still hasn’t returned to phase 8! It was in 8 only Dec 3rd-7th. Dec 8th-13th have all been in very weak (essentially neutral) phases 5-7. I still think it has a good chance to get back into 8 very soon, but we’ll see:

We went from historic phase 8 length to 4 days of verification 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Those Euro weeklies are horrendously warm!

 

Wait until today for another solution 

Gefs is pulling back on the warmth again. Continue to watch the Christmas timeframe for a storm in the northeast.

[MJO812]

Steve D thinks the same like others about  moving forward.  

[George001]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

We went from historic phase 8 length to 4 days of verification 

I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but this is a good observation and explains why we are seeing a relaxation period instead of a wall to wall cold December. It was initially expected to spend the entire month in phase 8, but things changed. It’s important to update and adjust our expectations accordingly with new information. 

[EasternLI]

This run is vastly different from all the previous gefs runs along the eastern seaboard.

[George001]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wait until today for another solution 

Gefs is pulling back on the warmth again. Continue to watch the Christmas timeframe for a storm in the northeast.

I agree with pumping the breaks on the warmth. However, as someone who pounded the table for a big January I am keeping an open mind to the idea it may not be as frigid as I expected. I do still think it will be a big month for northern areas. We will know more after the Christmas timeframe.

[donsutherland1]

I have no big changes from yesterday. Going forward, the WPO- is likely to become less negative and the EPO could go negative for a time, which would blunt the full effects of warming across the northern tier of the U.S. and especially Canada. The PNA will remain persistently negative.

The changes favor a Southeast ridge, strong trough in the Pacific Northwest, and a weakening trough over the Northeast and eastern Canada. Thus, the southern tier of the U.S. and perhaps most of the CONUS could see a warmer than normal December 20-31 period overall. The warmup could take time to develop in New England and the upper Midwest. Canada should remain broadly colder than normal for the period overall. 

There's a chance that the warmth could finally overspread the Northeast as December concludes and January starts. Should an EPO+/AO+ pattern develop, that would increase prospects for warmth in the Northeast. The EPS favors a near neutral AO while the GEFS favors a negative one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/mid-month-warm-up-arrives-on-schedule.html

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, George001 said:

I agree with pumping the breaks on the warmth. However, as someone who pounded the table for a big January I am keeping an open mind to the idea it may not be as frigid as I expected. I do still think it will be a big month for northern areas. We will know more after the Christmas timeframe.

Doubtful....at least in the mean.

[Krs4Lfe]

Ski resorts will get a big one in the northwest. Blizzard warnings posted for the cascades which isn’t typical over there, even in the winter. Looks like a North Dakota and north Minnesota blizzard as well. Lots of high winds with this Incoming storm, entire intermountain west will see 60+, with mountain ranges seeing up to 90. Could be quite the power outage event over there over next 24-36 hours. Northwest coast has been pounded with rain past week and it’ll only be heavier this week as well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.

Not here it wasn't. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but this is a good observation and explains why we are seeing a relaxation period instead of a wall to wall cold December. It was initially expected to spend the entire month in phase 8, but things changed. It’s important to update and adjust our expectations accordingly with new information. 

....or call BS on it beforehand via own obervations.

[raindancewx]

I'm running +7 or +8 month to date here, while Boston is running -7 to -8 month to date...but we've still had more snow than Boston even with less precipitation and a warmer base climate.

Really is a pretty weird pattern this month - everything is a bit off from normal flow and progression.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.

2000-01 was the most disappointing in my lifetime. I know this one technically ended with above average snowfall, but the epic snow bust in early March left a very sour taste. Oh what could have been if the forecast had even come close to verifying.

[GaWx]

 Today’s GEFS is progging ~-1.7 PNA for Dec as a whole. That would be ~5th strongest -PNA since 1950. But what were similarly strong -PNA Dec followed by in Jan since 1984-5 during -ENSO?

1984-5: from -1.6 to +1.6

2008-9: from -1.4 to +0.6

2010-1: from -1.8 to +1.3

2021-2: from -2.6 to +1.0

 All 4 of these Januaries were cold in the E US.

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s GEFS is progging ~-1.7 PNA for Dec as a whole. That would be ~5th strongest -PNA since 1950. But what were similarly strong -PNA Dec followed by in Jan since 1984-5 during -ENSO?

1984-5: from -1.6 to +1.6

2008-9: from -1.4 to +0.6

2010-1: from -1.8 to +1.3

2021-2: from -2.6 to +1.0

 All 4 of these Januaries were cold in the E US.

Everyone of them went to a +PNA. Wow .

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not here it wasn't. 

Not here either. December '89 was colder and snowier.