2025-2026 ENSO

[binbisso]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 A 4” snow seems like it would be considered quite a notable and impactful snow there and in most places. I understand that it’s not considered “major” up north, but down south it sure is in most areas like Atlanta. In Savannah, that would easily be in the historic category like the absolutely amazing and unheard of nearly 3” of mainly sleet (some snow finally fell pretty late into the storm) I got in January.

 Will NYC reach 4”? That’s the magic amount for a total in Dec that @bluewaveand @donsutherland1have said is an excellent predictor in La Niña winters for above average for Jan+.

 

Well cpk will not reach 4" today but many places in the boroughs will. Plus the towns bordering the city will have gotten 6" or more. I'm skeptical this indicator has any value. Maybe just luck. Idk. The big question is how did the nyc metro (within 10 miles of the city) receive 6-8" with a raging pac jet, -pna, +ao and nao and mjo phase 6. From reading on here the last few years I understand nola, Tallahassee, richmond dc and nne can but not the nyc metro on dec 14th no less. Wish someone can explain this 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Well cpk will not reach 4" today but many places in the boroughs will. Plus the towns bordering the city will have gotten 6" or more. I'm skeptical this indicator has any value. Maybe just luck. Idk. The big question is how did the nyc metro (within 10 miles of the city) receive 6-8" with a raging pac jet, -pna, +ao and nao and mjo phase 6. From reading on here the last few years I understand nola, Tallahassee, richmond dc and nne can but not the nyc metro on dec 14th no less. Wish someone can explain this 

Most of the boroughs have 4-6", just CPK will probably have 3" so maybe this statistic can still be used as a benchmark for the rest of the season?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Most of the boroughs have 4-6", just CPK will probably have 3" so maybe this statistic can still be used as a benchmark for the rest of the season?

Objectively, this was a 4” storm for most of NYC. I don’t think that if cpk gets 3.9” then the winter is an auto fail by this standard. Just as 4.1” doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a 50” blockbuster. 

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Well cpk will not reach 4" today but many places in the boroughs will. Plus the towns bordering the city will have gotten 6" or more. I'm skeptical this indicator has any value. Maybe just luck. Idk. The big question is how did the nyc metro (within 10 miles of the city) receive 6-8" with a raging pac jet, -pna, +ao and nao and mjo phase 6. From reading on here the last few years I understand nola, Tallahassee, richmond dc and nne can but not the nyc metro on dec 14th no less. Wish someone can explain this 

 Plus the indicator benchmark actually has worked better for 3” (15 out of 15) than for 4” (14 out of 15). Considering what you said (although I think the indicator has value if used correctly…this storm should more than be enough) and that 3” actually has worked better, I feel that this should already be more than enough (and we still have half the month to go, besides) to consider this a bullish indicator for NYC’s coming Jan+ snowfall to be in the vicinity of or above the 30 year normal of 24” for Jan+. Thus, I’m now predicting NYC will have at the very least 21” from Jan onward on top of whatever the Dec total ends up at:

 

Season…Dec NYC SN...Jan+ NYC SN

20-21…..10.5”….28.1”

17-18……7.7”……33.2”

16-17……3.2”……27.0”

10-11…..20.1”…..41.8”

08-09…..6.0”…..21.6”

05-06…..9.7”…..30.3”

00-01…..13.4”…..21.6”

95-96…..11.5”……64.1”

@bluewave@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Plus the indicator benchmark actually has worked better for 3” (15 out of 15) than for 4” (14 out of 15). Considering what you said (although I think the indicator has value if used correctly…this storm should more than be enough) and that 3” actually has worked better, I feel that this should already be more than enough (and we still have half the month to go, besides) to consider this a bullish indicator for NYC’s coming Jan+ snowfall to be in the vicinity of or above the 30 year normal of 24” for Jan+. Thus, I’m now predicting NYC will have at the very least 21” from Jan onward on top of whatever the Dec total ends up at:

 

Season…Dec NYC SN...Jan+ NYC SN

20-21…..10.5”….28.1”

17-18……7.7”……33.2”

16-17……3.2”……27.0”

10-11…..20.1”…..41.8”

08-09…..6.0”…..21.6”

05-06…..9.7”…..30.3”

00-01…..13.4”…..21.6”

95-96…..11.5”……64.1”

@bluewave@donsutherland1

My thinking for seasonal snowfall for Central Park was 15"-25". It will be interesting to see how things evolve.

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My thinking for seasonal snowfall for Central Park was 15"-25". It will be interesting to see how things evolve.

So, your high end of 25” is near my new low end as I’m essentially 25”+ for the entire season based on today’s storm (I had no prior prediction). Are you going to raise your prediction from your 15-25” range?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I went 19-29" for CPK.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Objectively, this was a 4” storm for most of NYC. I don’t think that if cpk gets 3.9” then the winter is an auto fail by this standard. Just as 4.1” doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a 50” blockbuster. 

Official totals:

NYC 2.7”

LGA 2.6”

JFK 4.6”

Newark 4.1”

Islip 5.8”

Upton 7.3”

Based on these numbers, this storm on its own is bullish for the rest of the season there imho.

[MJO812]

Here comes another period that was supposed to be mild but took a turn to the colder side. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here comes another period that was supposed to be mild but took a turn to the colder side. 

 This has been going on a lot since the Nov 20th and earlier runs were too warm for Thanksgiving week in much of the E US.

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here comes another period that was supposed to be mild but took a turn to the colder side. 

As long as Canada stays at or BN, unlike many recent years, the east coast from Virginia north seems to have a shot, the further north being favored.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

So, your high end of 25” is near my new low end as I’m essentially 25”+ for the entire season based on today’s storm (I had no prior prediction). Are you going to raise your prediction from your 15-25” range?

If I raise it, I will do so near the end of December.

[GaWx]

Despite my more optimistic posts in recent days, I always still try to be objective and show everything, good or bad. The Euro Weeklies remain steadfast on a warmer than average SE and Mid-Atlantic westward/solid -PNA through almost the entire run. The torchiest still remains well to the west of the E/SE US thanks to occasional cool-offs likely largely related to CAD saving the day. The NE is not far from normal.
 It tries to cool off in general in the E US toward normal the last week (1/19-25), but it isn’t really exciting looking.

  I continue to hope that just like the models have performed in many cases for the last 3.5 weeks, that they keep busting too warm in the E US.

[michsnowfreak]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Despite my more optimistic posts in recent days, I always still try to be objective and show everything, good or bad. The Euro Weeklies remain steadfast on a warmer than average SE and Mid-Atlantic westward/solid -PNA through almost the entire run. The torchiest still remains well to the west of the E/SE US thanks to occasional cool-offs likely largely related to CAD saving the day. The NE is not far from normal.
 It tries to cool off in general in the E US toward normal the last week (1/19-25), but it isn’t really exciting looking.

  I continue to hope that just like the models have performed in many cases for the last 3.5 weeks, that they keep busting too warm in the E US.

I have a weather enthusiast friend who's objective but always on the pessimistic side, so im surprised hes hellbent on models being too warm in the extended. 

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Despite my more optimistic posts in recent days, I always still try to be objective and show everything, good or bad. The Euro Weeklies remain steadfast on a warmer than average SE and Mid-Atlantic westward/solid -PNA through almost the entire run. The torchiest still remains well to the west of the E/SE US thanks to occasional cool-offs likely largely related to CAD saving the day. The NE is not far from normal.
 It tries to cool off in general in the E US toward normal the last week (1/19-25), but it isn’t really exciting looking.

  I continue to hope that just like the models have performed in many cases for the last 3.5 weeks, that they keep busting too warm in the E US.

Larry, when you compare the last 3 days of the weeklies, they are struggling big time. I think we wait until closer to the end of the month and see if Chuck's research on the timing of cooling to stratosphere warmings comes to fruition. There's already a cool down for Friday that wasn't there a week ago, not to mention all the failed warmups over the last couple of months. To be clear, I'm not saying we won't see a break in the pattern from the extreme cold, just that it makes more sense to wait and see instead of relying on models with lousy skill and consistency that a winter-killing pattern is guaranteed. 

[EasternLI]

I've been optimistic and I remain optimistic for this winter as a whole. Look warmth is by far and away the favorite to win out as we move through future decades. That's reality. We aren't all the way there yet either though. Some still get blown away seeing very impressive warm records when they occur. Which is fine. To me, that's to be expected more and more in the future during warm patterns anyway. Cold is more exciting and tends to bring exciting weather especially in winter. Plus I enjoy rooting for underdogs! Yet at the same time I'm going to be honest. Being disingenuous is stupid and makes no sense to me in any facet of life. This year feels like it's acting quite different than the recent ratters we've had. Sure there's a mild pattern set to visit for a time. That's legit, as discussed. IMO it's probably something like 1 week, maybe 2 tops. And new england might not even see very much of that. But this is starting to look more and more like the old classic Scandinavian Block > -NAO sequencing. Do note there is a mild period included during the beginning of that process.

 

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Larry, when you compare the last 3 days of the weeklies, they are struggling big time. I think we wait until closer to the end of the month and see if Chuck's research on the timing of cooling to stratosphere warmings comes to fruition. There's already a cool down for Friday that wasn't there a week ago, not to mention all the failed warmups over the last couple of months. To be clear, I'm not saying we won't see a break in the pattern from the extreme cold, just that it makes more sense to wait and see instead of relying on models with lousy skill and consistency that a winter-killing pattern is guaranteed. 

Wish I had seen these before I made this post as I would have stuck them in with it. Stole them from my MA forum. Eps ensemble members for Christmas Day temps. Laughable. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Wish I had seen these before I made this post as I would have stuck them in with it. Stole them from my MA forum. Eps ensemble members for Christmas Day temps. Laughable. 

Thanks, Mitch.

For the MidAtlantic, I roughly estimate 55% AN vs 45% BN. So, quite mixed as you’re implying. Thus, the predictability for Christmas and other days nearby is pretty low.