2025-2026 ENSO

[raindancewx]

You guys should be excited. Philadelphia is going to get 3-5 inches of snow before the next few systems come in as rain, and then whatever happens in January-March.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

You guys should be excited. Philadelphia is going to get 3-5 inches of snow before the next few systems come in as rain, and then whatever happens in January-March.

We've had snow on the ground here since November 29th. But right now its frigid and dry with the arctic air funneling in. With the east coast finally getting some snow, the thread explosion is the last thing I expected to see

[GaWx]

 The 12/8-10 MJO were all in very weak 5-6 (essentially neutral):

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.

LOL

[Krs4Lfe]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.

It’s astonishing how quickly winters have changes from the 2010s to the 2020s. This was peanuts a decade ago. This decade; a 4 inch snow storm feels like a lot. Makes me realize how good the 2021 winter was. Only above average snowfall since 2018. 2022 and 2019 were around 20 here in NYC, but the other 4 years were almost complete ratters.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s astonishing how quickly winters have changes from the 2010s to the 2020s. This was peanuts a decade ago. This decade; a 4 inch snow storm feels like a lot. Makes me realize how good the 2021 winter was. Only above average snowfall since 2018. 2022 and 2019 were around 20 here in NYC, but the other 4 years were almost complete ratters.

 A 4” snow seems like it would be considered quite a notable and impactful snow there and in most places. I understand that it’s not considered “major” up north, but down south it sure is in most areas like Atlanta. In Savannah, that would easily be in the historic category like the absolutely amazing and unheard of nearly 3” of mainly sleet (some snow finally fell pretty late into the storm) I got in January.

 Will NYC reach 4”? That’s the magic amount for a total in Dec that @bluewaveand @donsutherland1have said is an excellent predictor in La Niña winters for above average for Jan+.

 

[GaWx]

 Well, I just saw it updated for Dec 11th. It, indeed, looks like it finally was headed back toward phase 8. Technically, they’re calling 12/11 a very weak phase 7. Good chance I think that it returned to phase 8 on 12/12 (inside the circle)! We should know by tomorrow evening about 12/12.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

This isn’t about snow anymore for me. It’s about Snowman19’s continued nastiness and rudeness to everyone who disagrees with him. Bluewave leans warm too, but he’s never calls people names or is rude to those who disagree. He’s a good man, and deserves respect. Snowman19 is genuinely a bad person, there’s a difference. Maybe I did go too far, but we all have our breaking points with people like that.

I don't always see eye to eye with snowman, but he is reasonably pleasant for the most part. He can have an edge to him, though.

[George001]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't always see eye to eye with snowman, but he is reasonably pleasant for the most part. He can have an edge to him, though.

I don’t really have an issue with any of the other posters who lean warm besides maybe qqomega annoying me a bit at times, and even then that’s more of a me than him issue. He likes warmer weather and likes to troll those of us who like the cold and snow a bit. He’s not a dick about it though, so he’s fine. Actually, I have more issue with posters who deny AGW and usually those guys lean cold.

FYI Snowmans real name is Adam Furey. Im not sure if you have seen his twitter, but if you find it you will see why I despise him as a person. He’s so negative, all he does is complain. Im not exaggerating, every damn tweet Adam is bitching about something, never anything positive to say. On here he’s a bit more toned down, but I still get a know it all vibe from him and he can be and often is rude to people who don’t deserve it. Yes, I will admit that sometimes it’s justified (eg Joe Bastardi), but when EVERY tweet is negative, that’s a problem. 

[bncho]

53 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t really have an issue with any of the other posters who lean warm besides maybe qqomega annoying me a bit at times, and even then that’s more of a me than him issue. He likes warmer weather and likes to troll those of us who like the cold and snow a bit. He’s not a dick about it though, so he’s fine. Actually, I have more issue with posters who deny AGW and usually those guys lean cold.

FYI Snowmans real name is Adam Furey. Im not sure if you have seen his twitter, but if you find it you will see why I despise him as a person. He’s so negative, all he does is complain. Im not exaggerating, every damn tweet Adam is bitching about something, never anything positive to say. On here he’s a bit more toned down, but I still get a know it all vibe from him and he can be and often is rude to people who don’t deserve it. Yes, I will admit that sometimes it’s justified (eg Joe Bastardi), but when EVERY tweet is negative, that’s a problem. 

This is probably something to take to PMs. You can't wish that somebody ended themselves and then dox them by stating their real name.

[George001]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

This is probably something to take to PMs. You can't wish that somebody ended themselves and then dox them by stating their real name.

I warned him once before, and Adam didn’t correct his behavior. Being nice doesn’t always work, sometimes you need to apply pressure

[raindancewx]

There is an old song that reminds me about winter in the Northeast. Any of you know it?'

We met in the springtime when blossoms unfold
The pastures were green and the meadows were gold
Our love was in flower as summer grew on
Her love like the leaves now have withered and gone
The roses have faded, there's frost at my door
The birds in the morning don't sing anymore
The grass in the valley is starting to die
And out in the darkness the whippoorwills cry

Alone and forsaken by fate and by man
Oh Lord, if you hear me, please hold to my hand
Oh, please understand

Oh, where has she gone to? Oh, where can she be?
She may have forsaken some other like me
She promised to honor, to love, and obey
Each vow was a plaything that she threw away
The darkness is falling, the sky has turned gray
A hound in the distance is starting to bey
I wonder, I wonder what she's thinking of
Forsaken, forgotten without any love

Alone and forsaken by fate and by man
Oh Lord, if you hear me, please hold to my hand
Oh, please understand

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 A 4” snow seems like it would be considered quite a notable and impactful snow there and in most places. I understand that it’s not considered “major” up north, but down south it sure is in most areas like Atlanta. In Savannah, that would easily be in the historic category like the absolutely amazing and unheard of nearly 3” of mainly sleet (some snow finally fell pretty late into the storm) I got in January.

 Will NYC reach 4”? That’s the magic amount for a total in Dec that @bluewaveand @donsutherland1have said is an excellent predictor in La Niña winters for above average for Jan+.

 

I recently complied the data in more detail after getting some comments on exactly where the cutoff may be. This is what I posted in the NYC metro forum a few days ago and I will update when this month is complete. It seems to be that 4 to maybe 5 inches is where the cutoff level is. But the main takeaway is that the average to above average seasons went 6”+ in December.

The snowfall data below is what I post each December for La Niña conditions using the newer RONI definition due to the warming of the global oceans. The December to seasonal snowfall relationship has worked 14 out of the last 15 times.

My guess is the reason for the reliability as an early seasonal marker for below and normal to above average snowfall across the entire season is related to the La Niña seasonal progression. They tend to be more frontloaded in nature so their seasonal snowfall pattern is usually revealed early on in December. Plus in our warmer climate we have been noticing more repeating patterns perhaps related to non linear convective thresholds being met in tropical oceans driving the forcing.

The relationship holds for NYC, EWR, and LGA. I will post the data for NYC below which is similar to the other two stations. For the sake of this discussion I have been using 4” of snow in December as the cutoff. But it’s possible that it could actually be a little higher around 5” inches based on the available data. So it’s fine if someone else wants to use a 4-5” snowfall range for December snowfall as the cutoff line for below and normal to above normal seasonal snowfall.

I am not making the argument that the December snowfall is causing the outcome of the rest of the season to change. Just that it serves as a marker of what expect the rest of the season. Sometimes two data points can be related due to other underlying variables that may not yet be fully sampled by our current scientific understanding.  

I will update this post once we have the complete December snowfall data.

NYC December to seasonal snowfall during the most recent 15 La Niña seasons as defined by RONI in either the fall into winter

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

24-25….2.8”….12.9”

22-23….T……….2.3”

21-22…..0.2”……17.9”

20-21…..10.5”….38.6”

17-18……7.7”……40.9”

16-17……3.2”……30.2” the one case in the last 30 years that didn’t work out

11-12……0.0”…..7.4”

10-11…..20.1”…..61.9”

08-09…..6.0”…..27.6”

07-08……2.9”…..11.9”

05-06…..9.7”…..40.0”

00-01…..13.4”…..35.0”

99-00…..T……….16.3”

98-99……2.0”…..12.7”

95-96…..11.5”……75.6”

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

snowman did do a good job of pointing out that it was a La Nina pattern in the Summer and Fall, being -AAM. This is a massive -PNA, a Strong La Nina pattern:  https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/12/2025 at 11:59 AM, GaWx said:

 Natural gas is down still another 3% on the day, which brings the total drop since the peak of 8 days ago to a very steep 25% on an anticipated much warmer E US pattern (though maybe not to a torch in the means as I stated in my prior post) starting mid to late next week and continuing for the foreseeable future! At least that’s some good news for future heating bills.

@Stormchaserchuck1

If it went in other direction, we would be in the early stages of a 02-03 type Winter

That one week move was incredible! We might have to consider that the consensus is now for a warmer Jan-March. If it's not, NG will rebound. 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If it went in other direction, we would be in the early stages of a 02-03 type Winter

That one week move was incredible! We might have to consider that the consensus is now for a warmer Jan-March. If it's not, NG will rebound. 

The market reacts to changes in model runs. I don't think they are any different than those on this board. And when it comes to commodity markets, it's more about getting ahead of consensus than the ultimate reality.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The market reacts to changes in model runs. I don't think they are any different than those on this board. And when it comes to commodity markets, it's more about getting ahead of consensus than the ultimate reality.

The Euro weeklies and EPS weeklies did warm up long range +days after the move though. I agree though, that it is predictable if you are good at forecasting, from what I've seen tracking it so far. If Jan-Feb end up being cold (which is a chance imo), the price will rebound to over $4 probably. It's not the gospel, but it does accentuate moves more than model runs, which seem a little behind. 

[EasternLI]

How have the AI Ens been doing? I haven't been following too closely. Some suggestion on them that the pacific trough would retrograde further out into the GOA. With subsequent increasing heights in the PNA region. If you loop them.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I recently complied the data in more detail after getting some comments on exactly where the cutoff may be. This is what I posted in the NYC metro forum a few days ago and I will update when this month is complete. It seems to be that 4 to maybe 5 inches is where the cutoff level is. But the main takeaway is that the average to above average seasons went 6”+ in December.

 

The snowfall data below is what I post each December for La Niña conditions using the newer RONI definition due to the warming of the global oceans. The December to seasonal snowfall relationship has worked 14 out of the last 15 times.

My guess is the reason for the reliability as an early seasonal marker for below and normal to above average snowfall across the entire season is related to the La Niña seasonal progression. They tend to be more frontloaded in nature so their seasonal snowfall pattern is usually revealed early on in December. Plus in our warmer climate we have been noticing more repeating patterns perhaps related to non linear convective thresholds being met in tropical oceans driving the forcing.

The relationship holds for NYC, EWR, and LGA. I will post the data for NYC below which is similar to the other two stations. For the sake of this discussion I have been using 4” of snow in December as the cutoff. But it’s possible that it could actually be a little higher around 5” inches based on the available data. So it’s fine if someone else wants to use a 4-5” snowfall range for December snowfall as the cutoff line for below and normal to above normal seasonal snowfall.

I am not making the argument that the December snowfall is causing the outcome of the rest of the season to change. Just that it serves as a marker of what expect the rest of the season. Sometimes two data points can be related due to other underlying variables that may not yet be fully sampled by our current scientific understanding.  

I will update this post once we have the complete December snowfall data.

NYC December to seasonal snowfall during the most recent 15 La Niña seasons as defined by RONI in either the fall into winter

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

24-25….2.8”….12.9”

22-23….T……….2.3”

21-22…..0.2”……17.9”

20-21…..10.5”….38.6”

17-18……7.7”……40.9”

16-17……3.2”……30.2” the one case in the last 30 years that didn’t work out

11-12……0.0”…..7.4”

10-11…..20.1”…..61.9”

08-09…..6.0”…..27.6”

07-08……2.9”…..11.9”

05-06…..9.7”…..40.0”

00-01…..13.4”…..35.0”

99-00…..T……….16.3”

98-99……2.0”…..12.7”

95-96…..11.5”……75.6”

 

Chris,

 So, your data shows that 3”+ actually worked better with a perfect 15 out of 15 with regard to predicting snowfall Jan+. Why not consider using 3” as the cutoff instead of 4”?

@donsutherland1

[roardog]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 So, your data shows that 3”+ actually worked better with a perfect 15 out of 15 with regard to predicting snowfall Jan+. Why not consider using 3” as the cutoff instead of 4”?

@donsutherland1

I wonder if it actually has to do with December temperature anomalies? If it’s “cold” then NYC obviously has a better chance of snow in December. Then the idea that if December is cold in a Nina, there seems to be a better chance of more cold during the rest of winter comes into play. When a Nina December is “warm” it seems to foreshadow a bleak rest of winter a lot of times. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7" of snow here Ray, I probably beat you.  How much snow did you end up getting? (It's Dec 14th)

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s astonishing how quickly winters have changes from the 2010s to the 2020s. This was peanuts a decade ago. This decade; a 4 inch snow storm feels like a lot. Makes me realize how good the 2021 winter was. Only above average snowfall since 2018. 2022 and 2019 were around 20 here in NYC, but the other 4 years were almost complete ratters.

1970 through 1999 I would have considered a large event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t really have an issue with any of the other posters who lean warm besides maybe qqomega annoying me a bit at times, and even then that’s more of a me than him issue. He likes warmer weather and likes to troll those of us who like the cold and snow a bit. He’s not a dick about it though, so he’s fine. Actually, I have more issue with posters who deny AGW and usually those guys lean cold.

FYI Snowmans real name is Adam Furey. Im not sure if you have seen his twitter, but if you find it you will see why I despise him as a person. He’s so negative, all he does is complain. Im not exaggerating, every damn tweet Adam is bitching about something, never anything positive to say. On here he’s a bit more toned down, but I still get a know it all vibe from him and he can be and often is rude to people who don’t deserve it. Yes, I will admit that sometimes it’s justified (eg Joe Bastardi), but when EVERY tweet is negative, that’s a problem. 

I like to think of posters as I do model guidance...they all have biases, you just have to learn to accept that and elicit whatever value there is to glean from them. You aren't going to "fix" their biases....all it is going to do is foster underlying tension that will create distractions, and detract from the quality of the forum dialogue. Adam does seem like a smart guy....sure, his contributions are decidedly one-sided, but if you understand that, he does offer plenty of value.

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like to think of posters as I do model guidance...they all have biases, you just have to learn to accept that and elicit whatever value there is to glean from them. You aren't going to "fix" their biases....all it is going to do is foster underlying tension that will create distractions, and detract from the quality of the forum dialogue. Adam does seem like a smart guy....sure, his contributions are decidedly one-sided, but if you understand that, he does offer plenty of value.

I don't disagree, but the use of emojis is out of control. If you disagree with someone, hit the disagree emoji. The fact is, every person in this forum qualifies as a weenie in some form or another, and there's nothing wrong with that. But to use the weenie or other emoji for the purpose of being disrespectful, dismissive, or just to take out your anger, needs to stop. Otherwise, we will continue to get the angst/anger against other posters imho.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like to think of posters as I do model guidance...they all have biases, you just have to learn to accept that and elicit whatever value there is to glean from them. You aren't going to "fix" their biases....all it is going to do is foster underlying tension that will create distractions, and detract from the quality of the forum dialogue. Adam does seem like a smart guy....sure, his contributions are decidedly one-sided, but if you understand that, he does offer plenty of value.

So easy not to have a bias in science/math.. 

[roardog]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't disagree, but the use of emojis is out of control. If you disagree with someone, hit the disagree emoji. The fact is, every person in this forum qualifies as a weenie in some form or another, and there's nothing wrong with that. But to use the weenie or other emoji for the purpose of being disrespectful, dismissive, or just to take out your anger, needs to stop. Otherwise, we will continue to get the angst/anger against other posters imho.

He seems to me like someone who is just unhappy with life at the moment. I know he mentioned one time that he was working two jobs to make ends meet. He knows most here like cold and snow so he looks for reasons against that to make other people unhappy since he is. Sometimes it’s just the way humans are. If things aren’t going great in his life right now, I hope things get better for him. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So easy not to have a bias in science/math.. 

Not as it pertains to forecasting, which has an inherent element of subjectivity....unless you rip and read exclusively. There is also such an excess of data that it's easy to cherry pick. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

7" of snow here Ray, I probably beat you.  How much snow did you end up getting? (It's Dec 14th)

1".

[GaWx]

 The 48 hour trend on GEFS has been to a -NAO. Keep in mind what we just saw for last week, when the Nov 28th forecast had a +NAO and it ended up as a strong -NAO.

 Dec 12th GEFS:

 

Dec 14th GEFS: