2025-2026 ENSO

[raindancewx]

You guys should be excited. Philadelphia is going to get 3-5 inches of snow before the next few systems come in as rain, and then whatever happens in January-March.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

You guys should be excited. Philadelphia is going to get 3-5 inches of snow before the next few systems come in as rain, and then whatever happens in January-March.

We've had snow on the ground here since November 29th. But right now its frigid and dry with the arctic air funneling in. With the east coast finally getting some snow, the thread explosion is the last thing I expected to see

[GaWx]

 The 12/8-10 MJO were all in very weak 5-6 (essentially neutral):

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.

LOL

[Krs4Lfe]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.

It’s astonishing how quickly winters have changes from the 2010s to the 2020s. This was peanuts a decade ago. This decade; a 4 inch snow storm feels like a lot. Makes me realize how good the 2021 winter was. Only above average snowfall since 2018. 2022 and 2019 were around 20 here in NYC, but the other 4 years were almost complete ratters.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s astonishing how quickly winters have changes from the 2010s to the 2020s. This was peanuts a decade ago. This decade; a 4 inch snow storm feels like a lot. Makes me realize how good the 2021 winter was. Only above average snowfall since 2018. 2022 and 2019 were around 20 here in NYC, but the other 4 years were almost complete ratters.

 A 4” snow seems like it would be considered quite a notable and impactful snow there and in most places. I understand that it’s not considered “major” up north, but down south it sure is in most areas like Atlanta. In Savannah, that would easily be in the historic category like the absolutely amazing and unheard of nearly 3” of mainly sleet (some snow finally fell pretty late into the storm) I got in January.

 Will NYC reach 4”? That’s the magic amount for a total in Dec that @bluewaveand @donsutherland1have said is an excellent predictor in La Niña winters for above average for Jan+.

 

[GaWx]

 Well, I just saw it updated for Dec 11th. It, indeed, looks like it finally was headed back toward phase 8. Technically, they’re calling 12/11 a very weak phase 7. Good chance I think that it returned to phase 8 on 12/12 (inside the circle)! We should know by tomorrow evening about 12/12.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

This isn’t about snow anymore for me. It’s about Snowman19’s continued nastiness and rudeness to everyone who disagrees with him. Bluewave leans warm too, but he’s never calls people names or is rude to those who disagree. He’s a good man, and deserves respect. Snowman19 is genuinely a bad person, there’s a difference. Maybe I did go too far, but we all have our breaking points with people like that.

I don't always see eye to eye with snowman, but he is reasonably pleasant for the most part. He can have an edge to him, though.

[George001]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't always see eye to eye with snowman, but he is reasonably pleasant for the most part. He can have an edge to him, though.

I don’t really have an issue with any of the other posters who lean warm besides maybe qqomega annoying me a bit at times, and even then that’s more of a me than him issue. He likes warmer weather and likes to troll those of us who like the cold and snow a bit. He’s not a dick about it though, so he’s fine. Actually, I have more issue with posters who deny AGW and usually those guys lean cold.

FYI Snowmans real name is Adam Furey. Im not sure if you have seen his twitter, but if you find it you will see why I despise him as a person. He’s so negative, all he does is complain. Im not exaggerating, every damn tweet Adam is bitching about something, never anything positive to say. On here he’s a bit more toned down, but I still get a know it all vibe from him and he can be and often is rude to people who don’t deserve it. Yes, I will admit that sometimes it’s justified (eg Joe Bastardi), but when EVERY tweet is negative, that’s a problem. 

[bncho]

53 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t really have an issue with any of the other posters who lean warm besides maybe qqomega annoying me a bit at times, and even then that’s more of a me than him issue. He likes warmer weather and likes to troll those of us who like the cold and snow a bit. He’s not a dick about it though, so he’s fine. Actually, I have more issue with posters who deny AGW and usually those guys lean cold.

FYI Snowmans real name is Adam Furey. Im not sure if you have seen his twitter, but if you find it you will see why I despise him as a person. He’s so negative, all he does is complain. Im not exaggerating, every damn tweet Adam is bitching about something, never anything positive to say. On here he’s a bit more toned down, but I still get a know it all vibe from him and he can be and often is rude to people who don’t deserve it. Yes, I will admit that sometimes it’s justified (eg Joe Bastardi), but when EVERY tweet is negative, that’s a problem. 

This is probably something to take to PMs. You can't wish that somebody ended themselves and then dox them by stating their real name.

[George001]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

This is probably something to take to PMs. You can't wish that somebody ended themselves and then dox them by stating their real name.

I warned him once before, and Adam didn’t correct his behavior. Being nice doesn’t always work, sometimes you need to apply pressure

[raindancewx]

There is an old song that reminds me about winter in the Northeast. Any of you know it?'

We met in the springtime when blossoms unfold
The pastures were green and the meadows were gold
Our love was in flower as summer grew on
Her love like the leaves now have withered and gone
The roses have faded, there's frost at my door
The birds in the morning don't sing anymore
The grass in the valley is starting to die
And out in the darkness the whippoorwills cry

Alone and forsaken by fate and by man
Oh Lord, if you hear me, please hold to my hand
Oh, please understand

Oh, where has she gone to? Oh, where can she be?
She may have forsaken some other like me
She promised to honor, to love, and obey
Each vow was a plaything that she threw away
The darkness is falling, the sky has turned gray
A hound in the distance is starting to bey
I wonder, I wonder what she's thinking of
Forsaken, forgotten without any love

Alone and forsaken by fate and by man
Oh Lord, if you hear me, please hold to my hand
Oh, please understand