2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year? 

They get worse every year. 

[GaWx]

 I’m assuming this Euro Weeklies H5 has a good chance to verify way off in the E US considering the projected MJO as well as PNA analogs that suggest a +PNA would be likely in Jan and also that the Euro has been correcting for a too strong SER recently:

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 I’m assuming this Euro Weeklies H5 has a good chance to verify way off in the E US considering the projected MJO as well as PNA analogs that suggest a +PNA would be likely in Jan:

 

the weeklies usually defer to ENSO climo as you head later into the winter anyway

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m assuming this Euro Weeklies H5 has a good chance to verify way off in the E US considering the projected MJO as well as PNA analogs that suggest a +PNA would be likely in Jan:

 

Cold run. They get warmer in January 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year? 

I think we just follow the model runs way more closely during the cold months.  In the summer, do we really care is a model says it is going to be 95 in 8 days and it turns out to be 88?  Or if a model says 1.00" of rain and we get .4"?  Unless I have outdoor plans, I rarely look at model runs from like April through October unless a hurricane is around the states.  I know another board that tracks 100 degree days that the GFS and Euro models spit out per run for Philly.  I think several times each year, models spit out record breaking 105 degree + days multiple times, and I think in 2024, the GFS spit out 100 or over for Philly over 100 different times, only too verify 0. 

[anthonymm]

On 12/2/2025 at 1:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be generous and give you a half inch Saturday....1/3 of the month down.

Tick, tock, tick, tock, in Anthony's mouth Mother Nature will stick a sock.

You going for < 3" or more than 3" by end of Dec in central park?

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’ve never seen any MJO history prior to the BoM’s 6/1/1974. 

There's an ERA-5 dataset that goes back to 1940. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.era5.1x.webpage.4023.txt

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Paul Roundy said it, dude is a genius so I am not bold enough to argue! But you're a pretty sharp cookie yourself Don, you're allowed, lol. Good post! 

We agree that he’s brilliant. His MJO work is groundbreaking.

On this point, I think he’s extrapolated where the coefficient of determination is fairly low. His overall linkage isn’t wrong, but other factors can easily overwhelm ENSO, the AAM, etc. 

It will be interesting to see the final outcome.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

SON 2025 ONI: -0.55

SON 2025 RONI: -0.85

November 2025 PDO: -1.67

[Krs4Lfe]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

You going for < 3" or more than 3" by end of Dec in central park?

I would definitely say less than 3. 
There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would definitely say less than 3. 
There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

Can see it being like Dec 24 or Jan 25. Below normal temps but we get all our precip from the odd cutter / coastal hugger when the cold pattern relaxes.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's an ERA-5 dataset that goes back to 1940. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.era5.1x.webpage.4023.txt

 Thanks, Don.
 

 Just to make sure there’s no confusion of the viewers, these ERA-5 values do not match the BoM RMM values. So, they aren’t substitutes for each other as they’re not the same way of tracking the MJO. Examples:

- The end of the ERA-5 is on 8/31/2023. Here are the values on 8/25-31/2023 from both the ERA-5 and the BoM RMM:

8/25: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 1.1 amp

8/25: BoM is in ph 8 at 0.84 amp

 

8/26: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 1.06 amp

8/26: BoM is in ph 8 at 0.85 amp

 

8/27: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.97 amp

8/27: BoM is in ph 1 at 0.64 amp

 

8/28: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.83 amp

8/28: BoM is in ph 2 at 0.46 amp

 

8/29: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.66 amp

8/29: BoM is in ph 2 at 0.27 amp

 

8/30: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.46 amp

8/30: BoM is in ph 3 at 0.28 amp

 

8/31: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.24 amp

8/31: BoM is in ph 3 at 0.26 amp

 

ERA-5 MJO 1/2/1940-8/31/2023

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.era5.1x.webpage.4023.txt
 

BoM RMM MJO 6/1/1974-present

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Don.
 

 Just to make sure there’s no confusion of the viewers, these ERA-5 values do not match the BoM RMM values. So, they aren’t substitutes for each other as they’re not the same way of tracking the MJO. Examples:

- The end of the ERS-5 is on 8/31/2023. Here are the values on 8/25-31/2023 from both the ERA-5 and the BoM RMM:

8/25: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 1.1 amp

8/25: BoM is in ph 8 at 0.84 amp

 

8/26: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 1.06 amp

8/26: BoM is in ph 8 at 0.85 amp

 

8/27: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.97 amp

8/27: BoM is in ph 1 at 0.64 amp

 

8/28: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.83 amp

8/28: BoM is in ph 2 at 0.46 amp

 

8/29: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.66 amp

8/29: BoM is in ph 2 at 0.27 amp

 

8/30: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.46 amp

8/30: BoM is in ph 3 at 0.28 amp

 

8/31: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.24 amp

8/31: BoM is in ph 3 at 0.26 amp

 

ERA-5 MJO 1/2/1940-8/31/2023

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.era5.1x.webpage.4023.txt
 

BoM RMM MJO 6/1/1974-present

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

Yes, there's a different methodology. I use the BOM values when assessing patterns and impacts.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would definitely say less than 3. 
There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

I can see sneaking over 3” for the month through minor clipper systems but I don’t see anything that would bring a significant (4”+) snow system anytime soon here. The flow is too zonal and fast to allow something to turn the corner that has more moisture into cold air, so we’ll be in a deep trough and cold/dry other than the minor lucky clipper system, or the SE ridge comes back and we get cutters/SWFE. There needs to be some mechanism to slow the pattern down-blocking preferably without -PNA which risks the SE ridge linking up with it. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I would definitely say less than 3. 
There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

Im gonna say more than 5 inches.. We will see a nice size snowstorm in mid to late December once we get blocking going again once the MJO goes into 8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

You going for < 3" or more than 3" by end of Dec in central park?

More...I don't think it will be dreadful...2007, 2008, 2000ish...

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More...I don't think it will be dreadful...2007, 2008, 2000ish...

2000 Central park was above average snowfall for the season. 2008 close to average snowfall and a lot of ice. 2007 pretty bad for them.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

2000 Central park was above average snowfall for the season. 2008 close to average snowfall and a lot of ice. 2007 pretty bad for them.

2000-01 may have finished with average snowfall, but the way the season ended, with that epic snow bust in March, made that season feel like a disappointment.

[so_whats_happening]

Nice looks like the call for a trimonthly of ~ -0.6 was a good call. Should continue to rise from here slowly. Unfortunately I do not think this will be an 'official' La Nina based on ONI numbers but darn close like last year. Still liking my call of about the week of Christmas into the new year being the warm up time frame leaving the tail end of phase 8 into 1.

Here is an updated subsurface from beginning of October to December 1st. Also @donsutherland1 I'm still working on chatting with you about RONI. I may just create a different thread and tag you instead of keeping it in this one, we will see. Hope to be done by this weekend. Work and life just taking precedence right now unfortunately.

[stadiumwave]

N. PAC

Current

30 day change

[snowman19]

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice looks like the call for a trimonthly of ~ -0.6 was a good call. Should continue to rise from here slowly. Unfortunately I do not think this will be an 'official' La Nina based on ONI numbers but darn close like last year. Still liking my call of about the week of Christmas into the new year being the warm up time frame leaving the tail end of phase 8 into 1.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?