2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year? 

They get worse every year. 

[GaWx]

 I’m assuming this Euro Weeklies H5 has a good chance to verify way off in the E US considering the projected MJO as well as PNA analogs that suggest a +PNA would be likely in Jan and also that the Euro has been correcting for a too strong SER recently:

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 I’m assuming this Euro Weeklies H5 has a good chance to verify way off in the E US considering the projected MJO as well as PNA analogs that suggest a +PNA would be likely in Jan:

 

the weeklies usually defer to ENSO climo as you head later into the winter anyway

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m assuming this Euro Weeklies H5 has a good chance to verify way off in the E US considering the projected MJO as well as PNA analogs that suggest a +PNA would be likely in Jan:

 

Cold run. They get warmer in January 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year? 

I think we just follow the model runs way more closely during the cold months.  In the summer, do we really care is a model says it is going to be 95 in 8 days and it turns out to be 88?  Or if a model says 1.00" of rain and we get .4"?  Unless I have outdoor plans, I rarely look at model runs from like April through October unless a hurricane is around the states.  I know another board that tracks 100 degree days that the GFS and Euro models spit out per run for Philly.  I think several times each year, models spit out record breaking 105 degree + days multiple times, and I think in 2024, the GFS spit out 100 or over for Philly over 100 different times, only too verify 0.