2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

i do think a larger storm is possible after the 15th into early Jan if the -NAO holds on and heights rise out west a bit more with help from tropical forcing, but that's way out there

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally

my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied

I didn't say anyone called for one. The comment was made that the upcoming pattern is unfavorable for one, and you responded with semantics concerning climo. I don't agree that there is no valuein it...there is absolutely value in highlighting an enhanced risk, and this upcoming pattern isn't one...otherwise, WTH are we doing?? Isn't forecasting the goal? 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't say anyone called for one. The comment was made that the upcoming pattern is unfavorable for one, and you responded with semantics concerning climo. I don't agree that there is no valuein it...there is absolutely value in highlighting an enhanced risk, and this upcoming pattern isn't one...otherwise, WTH are we doing?? Isn't forecasting the goal? 

personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like?

what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like?

what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time

Sure, absolutely add what it does favor, but lets be honest...we are all looking for a blizzard, which is why he pointed out the limitations. I don't think there was an insinustion made that it couldn't support some more pedestrian threats.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wasn't trying to be a dick ...but you're a pro...poll your clients RE whether or not they find value in identifying periods of elevated risk for severe weather.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

[EastonSN+]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

2008/2009 was referenced as a possible analog for this year. However I do mot recall the PNA state for that season.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

I am glad that my early October indicator pointing to a more -PNA worked out again this year. Was expecting a decline in the PNA from the record levels last year. But we always have to wait until December in order to get the specific value. This is why Canada into the Northern Tier are so much colder than last December.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

Hey Don,

 If a -PNA verifies for Dec, which is becoming increasingly likely as you’re implying, the chances for a +PNA in Jan are increased based on the last 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs all proceeding to a +PNA Jan. This includes Jans like 1985, 2011, 2014, and 2022. There was even some tendency for the strongest +PNA of these Januaries to follow the strongest -PNA of these Decembers.

Dec:

 

Jan:

 

Feb:

 

@EastonSN+PNA in Dec of 2008 was -1.41 and was +0.61 in the much colder Jan.

[LakePaste25]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am glad that my early October indicator pointing to a more -PNA worked out again this year. Was expecting a decline in the PNA from the record levels last year. But we always have to wait until December in order to get the specific value. This is why Canada into the Northern Tier are so much colder than last December.

The medium range appears to show a more canonical La Niña pattern than we’ve seen from previous La Niña winters this decade, with a ridge over the GOA, cold in interior western Canada spreading eastward through the Great Lakes. 

Recent La Niña winters have shown extreme displacement of the North Pacific ridge from what is the typical location, with 2022-2023 featuring the ridge very far west (over the Aleutians), resulting in extremely heavy seasonal snows in the Sierra Nevadas (La Nina is normally dry there). 2024-2025 featured the north pacific ridge displaced much further east than usual, resulting in very high +PNA values and is very atypical for La Niña. 

It’ll be interesting to see if we experience more extreme displacements of the typical La Niña pattern this coming decade.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Today’s MJO forecasts:

1. EPS is once again very steady and has a 15+ day long phase 8, the longest winter phase 8 in 50 years: one couldn’t place it in a better position in Dec for the entire 2 weeks for E US cold lovers:

 

GEFS has been more jumpy than the EPS from day to day: today it still has a 9 day long phase 8, which itself would still be the longest in winter since Feb of 2019’s 9 days, before backtracking to phase 7:

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s MJO forecasts:

1. EPS is once again very steady and has a 15+ day long phase 8, the longest winter phase 8 in 50 years: one couldn’t place it in a better position for the entire 2 weeks for E US cold lovers

 

GEFS has been more jumpy than the EPS from day to day: today it still has a 9 day long phase 8, which itself would still be the longest in winter since Feb of 2019’s 9 days, before backtracking to phase 7:

 

Models are getting active because of phase 8. Timing issues will be key moving forward. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are getting active because of phase 8. Timing issues will be key moving forward. 

 Regardless, there’s been and looks to continue to be plenty of winter (cold and/or wintry precip) in most of the E US through the first half of Dec at least. Despite the weak -PNA, there’s a very rare combo of a very long moderate amp phase 8 MJO, a -NAO, and a -AO to more than compensate.

 

-NAO: wasn’t seen dominating the 1st 1/2 of Dec as recently as 5 days ago

 

-AO: wasn’t seen dominating the 1st 1/2 of Dec as recently as 5 days ago

[MJO812]

Very interesting

[GaWx]

 Natural gas is now near $5, which is the highest in nearly 4 years. NG generally is highest in winter when the E US, especially NE and Midwest, is forecasted to be colder than normal.

[Newman]

Does anyone know of anywhere that has MJO RMM plots before 1975? The Australia BOM archived site only goes back to 1975.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Newman said:

Does anyone know of anywhere that has MJO RMM plots before 1975? The Australia BOM archived site only goes back to 1975.

I’ve never seen any MJO history prior to the BoM’s 6/1/1974.