2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

i do think a larger storm is possible after the 15th into early Jan if the -NAO holds on and heights rise out west a bit more with help from tropical forcing, but that's way out there

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally

my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied

I didn't say anyone called for one. The comment was made that the upcoming pattern is unfavorable for one, and you responded with semantics concerning climo. I don't agree that there is no valuein it...there is absolutely value in highlighting an enhanced risk, and this upcoming pattern isn't one...otherwise, WTH are we doing?? Isn't forecasting the goal? 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't say anyone called for one. The comment was made that the upcoming pattern is unfavorable for one, and you responded with semantics concerning climo. I don't agree that there is no valuein it...there is absolutely value in highlighting an enhanced risk, and this upcoming pattern isn't one...otherwise, WTH are we doing?? Isn't forecasting the goal? 

personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like?

what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like?

what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time

Sure, absolutely add what it does favor, but lets be honest...we are all looking for a blizzard, which is why he pointed out the limitations. I don't think there was an insinustion made that it couldn't support some more pedestrian threats.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wasn't trying to be a dick ...but you're a pro...poll your clients RE whether or not they find value in identifying periods of elevated risk for severe weather.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

[EastonSN+]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

2008/2009 was referenced as a possible analog for this year. However I do mot recall the PNA state for that season.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

I am glad that my early October indicator pointing to a more -PNA worked out again this year. Was expecting a decline in the PNA from the record levels last year. But we always have to wait until December in order to get the specific value. This is why Canada into the Northern Tier are so much colder than last December.