2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's just pure hopium at this point. I don't see anything to be positive about. SE ridge looks pretty dominant and cold dumps west with troughing 

So cold/dry to warm/wet and vice versa will be the theme. Same storm tracks we've been seeing for years now

Another bad post

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are no absolutes, definites or guarantees in weather. You, me or anyone else can’t guarantee MJO phase 8, a SSW or that December is going to be cold on November 20th. If I made a post like that saying it’s going to be warm you would have jumped all over me

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up even when the long range models were cold between December 17th to 25th.

you are just full of surprises

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There could be some MJO 7 elements in the mix for early December. But the convection lingering near the Maritime Continent may not translate into a purely 7 composite. So with more of a split forcing pattern perhaps a variation on the phase 7 theme.

I agree that the phase 8s have been a big challenge since January 2022. Even when the RMM charts indicated a phase 8 verifying, lingering phase 4-6 convection didn’t lead to the desired outcome.

The record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent had been altering the convective forcing and sensible weather patterns.

Fair enough. However, the example you were using was displaying basically the textbook la nina phase 7 response. We'll see how it goes. Another thing for consideration. The waters in that area of the globe have cooled significantly since last year. First image below is the difference between now vs 1 year ago. Enough so, that it's mostly near normal now in the equatorial band (10N-10S). With a non insignificant area having below normal temps even for a change (2nd image). A sight for sore eyes. So perhaps that factor can be muted this time.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you are just full of surprises

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

But we dont know whats going to be realistic or not. We haven't seen a SSW this early in a long time.

[BuffaloWeather]

Put out today 

[stadiumwave]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Getting a clean phase 8 pattern during December is going to be a challenge with any convection lingering near the Maritime Continent. 

 There hasn’t even been one 3+ day long Dec MJO phase 8 since 2017 and the one before that was way back in 2009! So, if the models are right with their 3++ day long phase 8, it would the first time in 8 years and only the 2nd time in 15 years!

 A whopping nearly 80% of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged colder than normal at Raleigh though with lots of variation. When amplitude is <1.5, that rises even further to 85% along with an average of 5.0 F BN. If it’s a pretty strong amplitude (1.5+), it actually averaged only 0.5 F BN at Raleigh.

 At Baltimore, it’s pretty similar for Dec phase 8 with 4.8 F BN for amp <1.5 but only 0.3 F BN for amp >1.5. 

 Fortunately, most Dec phase 8 are <1.5 amp.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But we dont know whats going to be realistic or not. We haven't seen a SSW this early in a long time.

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

 

[stadiumwave]

Hmmm....

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

SSWs or wave reflection events don’t automatically mean cold and wintry conditions around our area. Plus the sample size of December SSW events since the late 80s is very small at only three years during La Nina’s .Those three didn’t really do much for us. Hopefully, we can see some improvement over those limited past early cases. 

Even if the RMMs eventually make it into phase 8, the VP charts still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent. Doesn’t take much convection there in concert with the gradient between Siberia and the mid latitude WPAC warm poll to enhance the Pacific Jet. 

The faster Pacific Jet has resulted in the dominant Great Lakes cutter, l-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 2018-2019 when the mid-latitude WPAC Pacific became warm.

So when we have had troughs in the East during recent years, they usually got pulled in behind a departing Great Lakes cutters or hugger tracks. Then we went cold and dry for a while the Southern Stream got suppressed.  Then the Southeast ridge has usually rebounded with more cutters and huggers.
 

Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.

Some of you on here are so delusional its sad. 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models  It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can you post some ensembles to back up your point? or just anything, really

You always post the same day 15+ ensembles that show a supposedly amazing pattern that never comes to fruition 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

I'd be okay with something like December 2017, when the warm-up was very brief, and the majority of the 2nd half of December is cold. This is certainly possible. I mean, we're overdue for one.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you are just full of surprises

Nah...very, very predictable. To be followed up with a "like" emoji by Snowman. 

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You always post the same day 15+ ensembles that show a supposedly amazing pattern that never comes to fruition 

explain to me how the pattern from last year never developed. i want receipts

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

could you clarify what you mean by "pattern" as it's kind of a broad term, and i'm trying to understand your perspective more.

The storm track pattern most of the time since 2018-2019 has been Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This has been a result of the record WPAC warmth both in the subtropics and midlatitudes with a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet along the thermal gradient between the Siberian cold and WPAC to south of Aleutians warmth.
 
Storm track #1 features a trough in the West and a Southeast ridge. So the low deepens crossing the Great Lakes with a warm storm track and mostly rain along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston.

Track# 2 features poor wavelength spacing in the fast Pacific flow so the storm hugs the I-78 to I-84 corridor favoring the interior regions away from the coast for the heaviest snows. Both these tracks feature too strong of a Southeast Ridge.

Track #3 has a kicker low coming into Western North America in the fast Pacific flow keeping the Southern Stream suppressed  and preventing a true 40/70 benchmark snowstorm track. Southeast ridge relaxes too much and the low slips to the Southeast.

Even with a winter average temperature closer to the long term average last year, there was no deviation in this storm track pattern.

Many times since February 2022 the long range forecast models have show big pattern changes during weeks 2 and 3. But we are yet to see a big change in this model bias. So this is why I like to temper long range expectations and wait until an actual pattern change shows up in the short term for it to be believable. 

RMM chart forecasts showing solid MJO 8 passages beyond 10 days out have either weakened before phase 8 due to the warm pool near the Maritime Continent or made it into 8 with lingering forcing hanging back near the Maritime Continent. So we didn’t get the true MJO 8 like we last had in January 2022. 

There have also been several events involving the stratosphere which haven’t panned out for snow or cold here. 

So this is why I don’t trust long range models to actually show pattern changes during weeks 2 and 3 since we have been through this numerous times before. But if we can actually get a shift in this pattern into the under 120 hr model forecast, then it will be something to be happy about. 

[brooklynwx99]

not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect

[brooklynwx99]

sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect

 

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous 

This is the actual 500mb pattern last winter on the 11 days which .20 or more of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. Very fast extended Pacific Jet along with a Southeast ridge linking up with the Greenland block with a warm storm track through the Great Lakes.

So the NYC average temperature last winter during the days with the heavier precipitation was 41° which was too warm to reach anywhere near average seasonal snowfall. 

Long range models consistently missed this pattern beyond 1 week out. Has nothing to due with luck or Monday morning quarterbacking. The storm track is a function of the pattern. 

I still think it’s possible to change things up a bit. But I am not going to make that forecast based on a week 2 or 3 model forecast. It has to show up in the short term in order to be believable.

11 day 500 mb composite DJF 24-25 when .20 of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston

 

 

[FPizz]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

explain to me how the pattern from last year never developed. i want receipts

We didnt get a KU would be the answer, so grrr bad!

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

We didnt get a KU would be the answer. 

The pattern never developed which could have produced a KU. That’s why it didn’t happen. Need the Pacific Jet to relax for storm tracks like that.

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

This is the actual 500mb pattern last winter on the 11 days which .20 or more of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. Very fast extended Pacific Jet along with a Southeast ridge linking up with the Greenland block with a warm storm track through the Great Lakes.

So the NYC average temperature last winter during the days with the heavier precipitation was 41° which was too warm to reach anywhere near average seasonal snowfall. 

Long range models consistently missed this pattern beyond 1 week out. Has nothing to due with luck or Monday morning quarterbacking. The storm track is a function of the pattern. 

I still think it’s possible to change things up a bit. But I am not going to make that forecast based on a week 2 or 3 model forecast. It has to show up in the short term in order to be believable.

11 day 500 mb composite DJF 24-25 when .20 of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston

 

 

is this a pattern issue or is this just a warm/wet cold/dry mantra? i would somewhat agree with the assertion of warm/wet cold/dry winters, however i would disagree when saying that the patterns itself have been bad. it's just that the good patterns didn't produce. please correct me if i'm wrong.

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

This is the actual 500mb pattern last winter on the 11 days which .20 or more of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. Very fast extended Pacific Jet along with a Southeast ridge linking up with the Greenland block with a warm storm track through the Great Lakes.

So the NYC average temperature last winter during the days with the heavier precipitation was 41° which was too warm to reach anywhere near average seasonal snowfall. 

Long range models consistently missed this pattern beyond 1 week out. Has nothing to due with luck or Monday morning quarterbacking. The storm track is a function of the pattern. 

I still think it’s possible to change things up a bit. But I am not going to make that forecast based on a week 2 or 3 model forecast. It has to show up in the short term in order to be believable.

11 day 500 mb composite DJF 24-25 when .20 of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston

 

 

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about? 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

is this a pattern issue or is this just a warm/wet cold/dry mantra? i would somewhat agree with the assertion of warm/wet cold/dry winters, however i would disagree when saying that the patterns itself have been bad. it's just that the good patterns didn't produce. please correct me if i'm wrong.

It’s a main feature of the pattern which has been stuck in place for the last 7 years with a brief relaxation during 20-21 and Jan 22. Very hostile Pacific pattern for snow in the I-95 corridor. Good patterns for snow produce classic KU benchmark storms which were in abundance from 2010 to 2018 with the much weaker Pacific Jet.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about? 

Happened too many times for me to count from 2010 to 2018.

Plus I started getting excited about the 20-21 winter during that October with my first successful use for the October MJO indicator for La Ninas.

The most recent time was later in December 2021 after the highly amplified December MJO 6-7 stall that month which really pumped the Southeast ridge. But around the holidays the models started showing a legit MJO 8 for January 2022 which verified. 

So that was the last successful MJO 8 passage. We have had many model forecasts for phase 8 since then. But none have worked out due to interference from the WPAC warm pool. So I would like to see all the VP anomaly charts showing weakening forcing within week 1 near the Maritime Continent for the forecast to be believable.

[so_whats_happening]

On 11/13/2025 at 10:25 AM, donsutherland1 said:

I see your point. The argument for RONI is that the overall warming of the Pacific is not temporary or cyclical.

The use of traditional ENSO metrics i.e., R3.4 anomaly, ONI, etc., has beenb contaminated by the overall warming of the Pacific. In their present form, El Niño events are amplified while La Niña ones are shown as weaker. As the warming continues, La Niña events could even be obscured. Winter 2024-2025 is one such case. It showed up as neutral-cold on ONI, but was a La Niña case according to RONI.

Some useful literature on the use of a relative index: 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has already made the switch to RONI. 

Here's a table from the article concerning the BOM's shift:

Sorry life has been something else the last week. I would like to revisit this hopefully over the weekend I get some free time to chat about this and go further. Ill take a look at the article/ journal you posted then. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

Oof, not good to see. 

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

 

Very much agreed a quick disruption followed by a very strong PV when it flips back