2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's just pure hopium at this point. I don't see anything to be positive about. SE ridge looks pretty dominant and cold dumps west with troughing 

So cold/dry to warm/wet and vice versa will be the theme. Same storm tracks we've been seeing for years now

Another bad post

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are no absolutes, definites or guarantees in weather. You, me or anyone else can’t guarantee MJO phase 8, a SSW or that December is going to be cold on November 20th. If I made a post like that saying it’s going to be warm you would have jumped all over me

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up even when the long range models were cold between December 17th to 25th.

you are just full of surprises

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There could be some MJO 7 elements in the mix for early December. But the convection lingering near the Maritime Continent may not translate into a purely 7 composite. So with more of a split forcing pattern perhaps a variation on the phase 7 theme.

I agree that the phase 8s have been a big challenge since January 2022. Even when the RMM charts indicated a phase 8 verifying, lingering phase 4-6 convection didn’t lead to the desired outcome.

The record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent had been altering the convective forcing and sensible weather patterns.

Fair enough. However, the example you were using was displaying basically the textbook la nina phase 7 response. We'll see how it goes. Another thing for consideration. The waters in that area of the globe have cooled significantly since last year. First image below is the difference between now vs 1 year ago. Enough so, that it's mostly near normal now in the equatorial band (10N-10S). With a non insignificant area having below normal temps even for a change (2nd image). A sight for sore eyes. So perhaps that factor can be muted this time.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you are just full of surprises

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

But we dont know whats going to be realistic or not. We haven't seen a SSW this early in a long time.

[BuffaloWeather]

Put out today 

[stadiumwave]

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Getting a clean phase 8 pattern during December is going to be a challenge with any convection lingering near the Maritime Continent. 

 There hasn’t even been one 3+ day long Dec MJO phase 8 since 2017 and the one before that was way back in 2009! So, if the models are right with their 3++ day long phase 8, it would the first time in 8 years and only the 2nd time in 15 years!

 A whopping nearly 80% of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged colder than normal at Raleigh though with lots of variation. When amplitude is <1.5, that rises even further to 85% along with an average of 5.2 F BN. If it’s a pretty strong amplitude (1.5+), it actually averaged only 0.5 F BN at Raleigh.

 At Baltimore, it’s pretty similar for Dec phase 8 with 4.8 F BN for amp <1.5 but only 0.3 F BN for amp >1.5. 

 Fortunately, most Dec phase 8 are <1.5 amp.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But we dont know whats going to be realistic or not. We haven't seen a SSW this early in a long time.

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

 

[stadiumwave]

Hmmm....

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

SSWs or wave reflection events don’t automatically mean cold and wintry conditions around our area. Plus the sample size of December SSW events since the late 80s is very small at only three years during La Nina’s .Those three didn’t really do much for us. Hopefully, we can see some improvement over those limited past early cases. 

Even if the RMMs eventually make it into phase 8, the VP charts still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent. Doesn’t take much convection there in concert with the gradient between Siberia and the mid latitude WPAC warm poll to enhance the Pacific Jet. 

The faster Pacific Jet has resulted in the dominant Great Lakes cutter, l-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 2018-2019 when the mid-latitude WPAC Pacific became warm.

So when we have had troughs in the East during recent years, they usually got pulled in behind a departing Great Lakes cutters or hugger tracks. Then we went cold and dry for a while the Southern Stream got suppressed.  Then the Southeast ridge has usually rebounded with more cutters and huggers.
 

Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.