2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

https://pix11.com/weather/rare-november-polar-event-brewing-high-above-the-northern-hemisphere/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAOB35RleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR4RFB3Tl9cViuycaQaRBQzZsCvGJYeM6M5ZuXzB6yEtRYk1PnPyT-QB3PjoOg_aem_WzC8-WC72b5jdiqjbQ8nOw

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

You know your shit and bring a lot to the table in terms of ENSO discussions but dude….. watch it. I don’t like that you are post limited because you actually know what you are talking about, but maybe if you actually tried not being a raging d*ckhead for once in your fucking life things would be better for you here. You are 100% right about misinfo/wishcasters like JB. You aren’t going to actually win in your crusade against these people by being insufferable, you need actual people skills. You want to just call me an idiot and ignore this? Fine, go ahead. I can’t stop you from doing that, I said what needed to be said. Now it’s up to you to decide what you want to do.

Thank you for saying the quiet part outloud. I have him on ignore anyways. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I just saw it. Right you are and by a good margin!! Mean minimum down to ~0:

And it's still below normal on 12/31.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I just saw it. Right you are and by a good margin!! Mean minimum down to ~0:

This is the wonderful thing of strong blocks and poleward flux. Ill have to take a look back and see what exactly caused the flow to buckle so much over the last 2-3 weeks.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You’d think getting another mod strong one isn’t too likely.  That would make 3 of the last 4 with only 18-19 not being strong or mod 

4 of the last 5 actually, as 09-10 was another strong el nino (along with 15-16 and 23-24).

Very possible we could have a repeat of 86-89 (remember this came quickly after the 82-83 el nino), with the double el nino in 26-28, then transition to a strong la nina in 28-29. We're overdue for a strong la nina as well. We haven't had one since 10-11, which is the longest stretch without a strong la nina since 55-56 to 73-74. If we don't have a la nina by 28-29, we would have our longest stretch without a strong la nina since 1916-17 to 1955-56.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ASO ONI was -0.5, meaning we need to make it to DJF -0.5 for an official La Nina.. going to be close. The RONI is definitely in Weak Nina range though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

And it's still below normal on 12/31.

Which extends out a -NAO to Jan 20-25 (although not a Strong SSW by late Dec, low correlation in lagged effect).