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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season


BarryStantonGBP
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JB isn’t happy:

Laughable NHC Antics

The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño.

It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me.

In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks

It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo.

But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters.

—————-

Any thoughts? Imagine being mad about Karen. Isn’t it usually the other way around? :D

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Maybe they wasted the name Karen on that so if they need to name the coastal, which will be a high impact event, it won't have the name Karen and people won't focus on that. I don't think they will name this storm until possibly a late stage after it leaves the coast. That may mean the tropical system down around 15N will get a name first (Lorenzo) and the coastal could end up being Melissa. Or it could be just Lorenzo and no Melissa until later in October. 

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8 hours ago, GaWx said:

JB isn’t happy:

Laughable NHC Antics

The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño.

It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me.

In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks

It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo.

But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters.

—————-

Any thoughts? Imagine being mad about Karen. Isn’t it usually the other way around? :D

It gets worse...now there's evidence of Jerry meandering in the Atlantic.

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 Today’s Euro Weeklies are hinting at some W Caribbean activity late month into early Nov with a moderate risk to S FL week of 10/27-11/2 fwiw. Just something to follow. Not something for them to get alarmed about right now, of course.

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 1. This won’t come anywhere close to the western basin but it may add some ACE:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
small area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for further development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle part of this week while it moves to the west-northwest
then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


 2. Of more importance landfall potential-wise, a followup AEW has been forecasted by a number of runs and ensemble members to develop close to the Lesser Antilles in ~a week.

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 The 0Z UKMET is the first run with the followup MDR AEW as a TD with it going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19): keep in mind that this is a top tier model that is sometimes genesis shy

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34
——————

Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122025
500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025
 
...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OUT IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 40.3W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
——————-

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 14.2N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 15.0N  41.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 16.2N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 18.0N  44.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 20.1N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 22.4N  44.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 25.1N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 30.9N  36.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 33.2N  29.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

JB is an idiot. Karen met all the qualifications of a subtropical system, which is why it got named. Had nothing to do with the "climate" agenda. 

How anyone still pays attention to that idiot is a conspiracy in itself. 

IMO it could’ve been named well before they named it. That it existed within an upper level low was why it was just what it was: a subtropical storm. Honestly a very impressive one at that to have the symmetry and sustained convection at that latitude. Would’ve loved radar from that storm because it would’ve looked like a hurricane haha. As for JB naming coastal storms, absolutely not. TWC already subjected us to that with winter storms and it’s a joke. Nor Easter’s are part of life on the east coast and honestly until this year we’d been in a very long dry spell for significant ones. We can’t name every weather system just bc it’s impactful. You’d have to start naming lows that hit the west coast too if you went that route. It’s just not a good idea. Coastal lows are very impactful but they are nothing like a hurricane and coastal towns know how to prepare accordingly as is. This one has literally 0 tropical characteristics and comparing it to Karen is like comparing an apple to an orange. Their both low pressure systems is about the only similarity. He has gone off the rails, and it’s sad because he had been one of the better Mets back in the day but it’s been so long I just cancel anything he says out as noise at this point. As for this system, lots of coastal flooding from New England to the Carolina’s and some areas of significant flash flooding in SC but overall a lot of areas saw beneficial rain. For a complicated forecast the storm ended up doing about exactly what was expected for the entire coast. 

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Very interesting end to the season with the most recent focus of TC genesis on Karen/Lorenzo. The next wave is one to watch as it’s a true low rider. Not sure it’ll develop in time for my peak season forecast but we’ll see. Could be an issue in the Caribbean long term. 

Meanwhile models are a touch split on whether Lorenzo survives or quickly dissipates.

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12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z UKMET is the first run with the followup MDR AEW as a TD with it going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19): keep in mind that this is a top tier model that is sometimes genesis shy

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34
——————

Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.

Consistent with the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has the followup MDR system moving WNW through the central Lesser Antilles on 10/19 and then into the far E Caribbean:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.9N 57.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 144 14.2N 59.0W 1010 33
0000UTC 20.10.2025 156 14.6N 61.9W 1010 34
1200UTC 20.10.2025 168 15.1N 64.9W 1009 35

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