2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

JB isn’t happy:

Laughable NHC Antics

The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño.

It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me.

In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks

It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo.

But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters.

—————-

Any thoughts? Imagine being mad about Karen. Isn’t it usually the other way around? 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's been a slow year.

[Roger Smith]

Maybe they wasted the name Karen on that so if they need to name the coastal, which will be a high impact event, it won't have the name Karen and people won't focus on that. I don't think they will name this storm until possibly a late stage after it leaves the coast. That may mean the tropical system down around 15N will get a name first (Lorenzo) and the coastal could end up being Melissa. Or it could be just Lorenzo and no Melissa until later in October.