2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

Regarding this nor’easter, here’s chaser Josh-iCyclone’s take:
 

 

 

[bigtenfan]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Great Q, big ten fan!

1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm.

2. I like to post all of the majors, good model or not. But I like to post the UK also for some other reasons like:

-it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page

-so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L

-this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors

-The UKMET is often overlooked. You see lots of Icon, GFS, and Euro posts, but hardly any UK despite it overall being a good model. So, I happily fill in that gap.

Great answer 

Thank you so much!

[Coach McGuirk]

It is a hybrid storm.  61 degrees all day here.  VA Beach had 50 MPH gusts and over 6 inches of rain and it's still going on.  It even had an eye as it was entering the Chesapeake Bay.  It should have had a name. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It is a hybrid storm.  61 degrees all day here.  VA Beach had 50 MPH gusts and over 6 inches of rain and it's still going on.  It even had an eye as it was entering the Chesapeake Bay.  It should have had a name. 

Think I heard it was a cold core storm, but honestly the radar representation screams a subtropical or weak tropical storm for sure.  

Ocean water temps there NE North Carolina to VA Beach probably low to mid 70's.

 

 

[Coach McGuirk]

It hit tropical status at the last second at impact. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It hit tropical status at the last second at impact. 

There's no indication it’s tropical. But it’s a hybrid of sorts though hybrid doesn’t necessarily mean subtropical, which is a type of hybrid, either. Most pro mets I’ve seen are saying not ST. I had been wondering if it could be ST.

[WxWatcher007]

It def had some subtropical characteristics near “landfall” but I think it fell short. Either way, the NHC wasn’t going to designate that after hesitating on a couple bona fide TCs already this year. 

[Seminole]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Even though we have two highlighted areas by the NHC, the basin is definitely starting to wake up. 
 

It’s weak right now, but there is a signal on guidance for possible development off the SE coast from a wave or disturbance that ejects out of the Caribbean early next week, and a signal late month for a possible CAG, which better fits climatology than what models were previously showing with a CAG mid-September. There are still headwinds with wavebreaking induced shear, but it seems to me that activity will gradually pick up as TC climo shifts west.  

CAG system late September to early October timeframe would be a very likely scenario. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I keep hearing about comparisons to last year’s slow start to September and while there are similarities with SAL and wave breaking, this one is simply much slower. At this point in September last year we had a cat 2 (landfall in Louisiana) and a TS. We haven’t even had a named storm yet, though that might change by tomorrow. Looking further into seasons comparison, 2024 was WAY more active to this point. Yes system numbers are similar, but at this point last year, we had had 4 hurricanes including a devastating cat 5, a US cat 2 landfall, and a very impactful cat 2 landfall on Bermuda plus Debby, a cat 1 that hit Florida. We have legitimately a 1 storm season this year. Erin was a named storm for 11 days. If you add up the rest of this years systems, you don’t even get 11 days combined from the other 5 systems. Heck 3 of them were only named for a day or less. The inactivity of the entire basin is simply stunning. We are now at 1/2 of our average ACE and that is including a 30+ unit ACE storm! I could go on and on but the point is, this is not like 2024 besides both shared an extended dead period mid season. The difference is 2025 wasn’t active before the dead period. 1 storm does not make the basin “active”. While I am sure future threats will materialize in the gulf and climo favored areas, I am simply shocked by how dead the Atlantic and entire northern hemisphere has been. 

[WxWatcher007]

The whole hemisphere…that’s really where it gets crazy. 

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The whole hemisphere…that’s really where it gets crazy. 

WPAC inactivity is absolutely absurd

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I keep hearing about comparisons to last year’s slow start to September and while there are similarities with SAL and wave breaking, this one is simply much slower. At this point in September last year we had a cat 2 (landfall in Louisiana) and a TS. We haven’t even had a named storm yet, though that might change by tomorrow. Looking further into seasons comparison, 2024 was WAY more active to this point. Yes system numbers are similar, but at this point last year, we had had 4 hurricanes including a devastating cat 5, a US cat 2 landfall, and a very impactful cat 2 landfall on Bermuda plus Debby, a cat 1 that hit Florida. We have legitimately a 1 storm season this year. Erin was a named storm for 11 days. If you add up the rest of this years systems, you don’t even get 11 days combined from the other 5 systems. Heck 3 of them were only named for a day or less. The inactivity of the entire basin is simply stunning. We are now at 1/2 of our average ACE and that is including a 30+ unit ACE storm! I could go on and on but the point is, this is not like 2024 besides both shared an extended dead period mid season. The difference is 2025 wasn’t active before the dead period. 1 storm does not make the basin “active”. While I am sure future threats will materialize in the gulf and climo favored areas, I am simply shocked by how dead the Atlantic and entire northern hemisphere has been. 

All of your points lead me to think that perhaps we are entering another AMO Inactive period. If volcanic activity is in fact an influencing factor with AMO Inactive periods should we look at the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption as a possible catalyst that started another AMO Inactive period? "The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai is a submarine volcano in Tonga that had a massive, explosive eruption on January 15, 2022, which produced a significant tsunami and a record-breaking volcanic plume that reached the mesosphere. This eruption, one of the largest in the past 300 years, generated shockwaves that propagated through the atmosphere and tsunamis across ocean basins, including the Americas and Japan." 

[Seminole]

Interesting article about housing construction since Hurricane Harvey. Apparently that biblical flooding event changed nothing.  

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/houston-metro-floodplain-construction/?noapp=true&utm_content=img&sid=6899cebb64b7fc37ca04ba24&ss=P&st_rid=null&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business&utm_campaign=hcrn | editorial features

 

[WolfStock1]

20 hours ago, Seminole said:

Interesting article about housing construction since Hurricane Harvey. Apparently that biblical flooding event changed nothing.  

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/houston-metro-floodplain-construction/?noapp=true&utm_content=img&sid=6899cebb64b7fc37ca04ba24&ss=P&st_rid=null&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business&utm_campaign=hcrn | editorial features

 

 

FWIW - lots of those houses are being built on quite-high stilts now, e.g. here's a neighborhood and a school in Port Bolivar:

 

 

Everything has to be about 15' above ground level now - above BFE (Base Flood Elevation - 100-year flood plain).   So these generally aren't your grandparents homes.

 

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

FWIW - lots of those houses are being built on quite-high stilts now, e.g. here's a neighborhood and a school in Port Bolivar:

 

 

Everything has to be about 15' above ground level now - above BFE (Base Flood Elevation - 100-year flood plain).   So these generally aren't your grandparents homes.

 

Thanks for sharing. I can attest to how this approach does mitigate flood damage to homes. My home on St. George Island is on 12' pilings. I had two feet of water under my home from Helene last year. It was not from storm surge but from excessive rainfall that had nowhere to go because the water table was full. That article is misleading in that it does not mention the 15' requirement. The article mentions a 2' requirement if building on a 100 or 500 year flood plain but that may be not be enough based on what Harvey did. 

[Scott747]

2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

FWIW - lots of those houses are being built on quite-high stilts now, e.g. here's a neighborhood and a school in Port Bolivar:

 

 

Everything has to be about 15' above ground level now - above BFE (Base Flood Elevation - 100-year flood plain).   So these generally aren't your grandparents homes.

 

Fwiw -

That's houses and the rebuilt elementary and middle school (Crenshaw) in Crystal Beach after Ike.

All of that construction had nothing to do with Harvey and was done due to Ike.

[NorthHillsWx]

If the follow up wave does not develop, there are some mild concerns down the road it might ride the low level flow further west and develop closer to home. Some ensemble support for development in SW Atlantic from the lemon highlighted by NHC. With everything else pretty dead, at least something to watch 

[Silver Meteor]

On 9/17/2025 at 8:45 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

I keep hearing about comparisons to last year’s slow start to September and while there are similarities with SAL and wave breaking, this one is simply much slower. At this point in September last year we had a cat 2 (landfall in Louisiana) and a TS. We haven’t even had a named storm yet, though that might change by tomorrow. Looking further into seasons comparison, 2024 was WAY more active to this point. Yes system numbers are similar, but at this point last year, we had had 4 hurricanes including a devastating cat 5, a US cat 2 landfall, and a very impactful cat 2 landfall on Bermuda plus Debby, a cat 1 that hit Florida. We have legitimately a 1 storm season this year. Erin was a named storm for 11 days. If you add up the rest of this years systems, you don’t even get 11 days combined from the other 5 systems. Heck 3 of them were only named for a day or less. The inactivity of the entire basin is simply stunning. We are now at 1/2 of our average ACE and that is including a 30+ unit ACE storm! I could go on and on but the point is, this is not like 2024 besides both shared an extended dead period mid season. The difference is 2025 wasn’t active before the dead period. 1 storm does not make the basin “active”. While I am sure future threats will materialize in the gulf and climo favored areas, I am simply shocked by how dead the Atlantic and entire northern hemisphere has been. 

Locally (Greenville, N.C.) it's been a strange summer too. With 22 days of below normal temps the high for August was a mere 91F. If not for that long stretch of brutal humidity in the first half of the month it would have been perfectly enjoyable. September so far has been remarkably cool and better yet, no problems with humidity. Our summer "died" much like the hurricane season. 

[Newman]

In most cases I wouldn't even think twice about the Euro AI showing a system developing in the Western Carribean at Day 11, but it is interesting to note that both the Google Deep Mind GenCast and regular Google Deep Mind ensemble are highlighting TC genesis in the same location and time, and then tracking into the Gulf. What are the AI models picking up on (or not) that the physics-based deterministic aren't?

 

And to note, even the NHC is using the Google DM in their official forecasts. It has done very well this season.

[dbullsfan]

I'm ecstatic nothing is happening, but this is weird right? Seems way too quiet. 

[WolfStock1]

17 hours ago, Scott747 said:

Fwiw -

That's houses and the rebuilt elementary and middle school (Crenshaw) in Crystal Beach after Ike.

All of that construction had nothing to do with Harvey and was done due to Ike.

Why does it matter?    People don't build homes etc. "due to" a hurricane.   Many of these places - including Crenshaw - survived Harvey just fine, and many of these places have been built since Harvey and are thus counted towards the stats in that article.    The Houston area didn't get completely destroyed and have to be rebuilt from nothing after Harvey.

The point is - most homes and businesses are being built much better to withstand flooding these days, thus it's not as foolish as it's made out to be.

IMO the key is - people need to know that there are risks, be wiling to accept them (including insurance), and IMO the government should not subsidize the risk like it often does.

[Seminole]

14 hours ago, Newman said:

In most cases I wouldn't even think twice about the Euro AI showing a system developing in the Western Carribean at Day 11, but it is interesting to note that both the Google Deep Mind GenCast and regular Google Deep Mind ensemble are highlighting TC genesis in the same location and time, and then tracking into the Gulf. What are the AI models picking up on (or not) that the physics-based deterministic aren't?

 

And to note, even the NHC is using the Google DM in their official forecasts. It has done very well this season.

Looks like the Euro is now on board with a system tracking in the Gulf in the same timeframe. The difference with the Euro AI is the Euro has the system forming in the eastern Bahamas and tracking through the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Gap instead of a CAG genesis.  

[GaWx]

 Although 2014 was about as slow as 2025 on this date (only 3 fewer ACE), it didn’t get any more ACE after today til Oct 11th. So, due to Gabrielle, 2025 should be well ahead of 2014 by mid to late next week.

 At this point, 2022 actually had 4 fewer ACE than 2025. However, Fiona was just becoming a MH and about to add a lot of ACE along with Ian becoming an H a week from now. So, 2025 is progged to soon fall well behind 2022. Regardless, 2022 ended with only 94 meaning 2025 could conceivably approach that if Gabrielle were to get strong along with an active October.

 Although 2015 on this date had 2 more NS than 2025, it actually had 14 fewer ACE and didn’t reach the current 2025 level of ACE til early Oct. It finished with only 63. So, if Gabrielle were to get strong, 2025 would have a good shot at exceeding the entire 2015 with additional significant activity by early Oct.

[Wannabehippie]

Gabrielle is still a naked swirl this AM, with all the convection displaced far from the center of circulation. Center is somewhere to the south and west of that blob of convection.