2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

Regarding this nor’easter, here’s chaser Josh-iCyclone’s take:
 

 

 

[bigtenfan]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Great Q, big ten fan!

1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm.

2. I like to post all of the majors, good model or not. But I like to post the UK also for some other reasons like:

-it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page

-so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L

-this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors

-The UKMET is often overlooked. You see lots of Icon, GFS, and Euro posts, but hardly any UK despite it overall being a good model. So, I happily fill in that gap.

Great answer 

Thank you so much!

[Coach McGuirk]

It is a hybrid storm.  61 degrees all day here.  VA Beach had 50 MPH gusts and over 6 inches of rain and it's still going on.  It even had an eye as it was entering the Chesapeake Bay.  It should have had a name. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It is a hybrid storm.  61 degrees all day here.  VA Beach had 50 MPH gusts and over 6 inches of rain and it's still going on.  It even had an eye as it was entering the Chesapeake Bay.  It should have had a name. 

Think I heard it was a cold core storm, but honestly the radar representation screams a subtropical or weak tropical storm for sure.  

Ocean water temps there NE North Carolina to VA Beach probably low to mid 70's.

 

 

[Coach McGuirk]

It hit tropical status at the last second at impact. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It hit tropical status at the last second at impact. 

There's no indication it’s tropical. But it’s a hybrid of sorts though hybrid doesn’t necessarily mean subtropical, which is a type of hybrid, either. Most pro mets I’ve seen are saying not ST. I had been wondering if it could be ST.

[WxWatcher007]

It def had some subtropical characteristics near “landfall” but I think it fell short. Either way, the NHC wasn’t going to designate that after hesitating on a couple bona fide TCs already this year.