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New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th tomorrow morning and again Friday morning. Saturday will turn briefly milder before cooler air returns. Another particularly strong cold shot is likely near mid-month before a potential warming trend develops.

Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast this evening as a Category 3. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. Landfall will likely occur just south of the Tampa Bay area.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued continued to fade. The heat will dissipate by the weekend.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the dirsuptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +4.64 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.260 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal).

 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's different now vs summer. A drought now ain't so bad. 

Most experts called for heavy rains along the east coast into the northeast from a active Atlantic tropical season 

 

ended up being a active Gulf of Mexico season which has been the case since 2017. 

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